This article is part of our Horse Racing series.
Preakness Stakes 2024 Predictions, Horses, Picks, Odds and Posting Time
The second leg of the Triple Crown heads to Baltimore, Maryland, for the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The attention will largely be on Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who despite early rumors that he might skip the race, will continue his quest towards the Triple Crown as the morning-line favorite. We have a much smaller field than the Derby with just eight horses, who will run a slightly shorter distance at 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs). Let's take a look at the horses and break down the race, set for Saturday at 7:01 p.m. EST.
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Preakness Stakes Horses and Odds
- Mugatu 20-1, Joe Bravo, 12: 1-1-3 (starts: 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
- Uncle Heavy 20-1, Irad Ortiz Jr., 5: 3-0-0
- Catching Freedom 6-1, Flavien Prat, 6: 3-0-1
Muth SCRATCHED- Mystik Dan 5-2, Brian Hernandez Jr., 7: 3-1-1
- Seize the Gray 15-1, Jamie Torres, 9: 3-0-3
- Just Steel 15-1, Joel Rosario, 12: 2-4-1
- Tuscan Gold 8-1, Tyler Gaffalione, 3: 1-0-1
- Imagination 6-1, Frankie Dettori, 6: 2-4-0
When is the Preakness Stakes This Year?
The Preakness Stakes will run at approximately 6:50 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 18.
Past Preakness Winners
2023: National Treasure (5-2)
2022: Early Voting (5-1)
2021: Rombauer (11-1)
2020: Swiss Skydiver (11-1)
2019: War of Will (6-1)
As we can see, there have been a pair of double-digit odds winners recently, but we haven't seen any shocking upsets like the Derby. Part of that is certainly due to the smaller field, and there hasn't been a winner over 15-1 odds over the last 15 years. Of the recent winners on the list, War of Will is the only one the raced in the Kentucky Derby in its most recent start (finishing seventh), with the last three Preakness winners opting for over a month-long layoff. That shows how difficult it is to win consecutive races at long distances with just two weeks in between.
Preakness Favorites
With Kentucky Derby favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone not in the field to go along with Muth (8-5 odds) being scratched Wednesday due to a fever, Mystik Dan is the obvious favorite to go back-to-back. Don't be surprised to see him bet down under 2-1. One would think this race being a half furlong shorter will work to his advantage after he seemed to be fading during the final eighth of a mile of the Derby.
Catching Freedom and Imagination are both next at 6-1, and I'd expect Catching Freedom to end up being the second favorite come post-time. He was only beaten by two lengths in a fourth-place finish at the Derby. Prior to that race, he had won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in which Tuscan Gold was also in the field, and that race was also at the same distance.
Early Pace
If things go as planned, Imagination will look to get off to the early lead and set the tempo. The Grade 2 San Felipe winner was then the favorite for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he was beaten by a neck. Overall, there's not a ton of early speed in the race with Muth out, leaving Seize the Grey as the most likely candidate to put some pressure on Imagination. He was not in the Derby field but did race at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile by over a length.
Closers
A fast pace sets up best for Catching Freedom, who was dead last at the three-quarter pole at the Louisiana Derby two starts ago and then charged late to win by a length. Meanwhile, Tuscan Gold is another candidate to sit off the pace and could benefit if the leaders get tired down the stretch. Although he's the most inexperienced in the field with just three races under his belt, a nearly two-month layoff could work to his advantage.
Preakness Longshots
Uncle Heavy and Mugatu are currently the longest shots on the board. Can either one of them challenge the favorites? Both come in fresh off a six-week layoff which we know is helpful, although Mugatu seems the least likely to contend considering he's only won once in 12 starts. Uncle Heavy on the other hand has won two of its last three, most notably the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct, but this will be quite a step up in class.
How To Bet On The Preakness
Win Bet: This is the most common horse racing bet. You're wagering on a horse strictly to win. Second or dead last both pays zero. Bet on as many horses to win as you like!
Place Bet: Betting on a horse to place means you'll win if the horse(s) you bet on finishes first or second, giving you a better chance of cashing a ticket.
Show Bet: If you bet on a horse to show, you'll win if your horse finishes in the top three. Best saved for horses with longer odds.
Across the Board: If you bet on a horse across the board, you're betting them to win, place and show. If your horse wins, you cash all three! A $2 across the board bet will cost $6. My dad's favorite bet!
Exacta: An exacta wager is betting on the two horses that come in first and second. You can bet on multiple horses to finish first and multiple to finish second to give yourself more chances. Often times, handicappers will do an exacta box with several horses in which they'll win no matter which of their horses comes in first or second. A $1 exacta wager tends to be the most common.
Trifecta: Selecting the top-3 finishers is called a trifecta, and often comes with a big payout due to the degree of difficulty - especially in a 20 horse race. Just like the exacta, you can box the trifecta, although the additional combinations make a lot of bettors choose $.50 trifecta wager.
Superfecta: If you really like to gamble, the superfecta pays out for correctly picking the top-4 finishers in order. Don't be afraid to throw some longshots in your selections, as you'll often see a 50-1 shot or longer sneak into the top-4. A $.10 superfecta wager allows for a wealth of combinations.
Daily Double: If you like to have action on multiple races, the Daily Double pays out for correctly picking horses in two consecutive races. Feel free to pick multiple horses in each race to give yourself more combinations, albeit at a higher cost. You can pair the Kentucky Derby Daily Double with the race before or the race after.
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Preakness Predictions
Just Steel pressed the pace more than usual at the Kentucky Derby and faded under the fast fractions to finish 17th. I don't expect the same mistake to be made this time around in a jockey change to Joel Rosario. Prior to the Derby, he was only beaten by Muth at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and beat third-place finisher, Mystik Dan, by over four lengths. I love the value on Just Steel at likely around double-digit odds to pull off an upset.
Bets
Win: 7
Exacta: 3/2,7 ($5 wager costs $10)
Trifecta: 5/2,3,7/2,3,6,7 ($1 wager costs $9)
