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The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the UConn Huskies in a Sweet 16 matchup in Las Vegas tonight. The No. 4 seed Huskies are 3.5-point favorites over the No. 8 seed Razorbacks, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
UConn won its first 14 games of the season before hitting a 2-6 slump mid-season in Big East play. The Huskies recovered down the stretch and have now won 11 of their last 13, including a comfortable 70-55 win over a tough Saint Mary's squad to advance to the Sweet 16. Junior forward Adama Sanogo leads a deep UConn team in points (17.3 PPG) and rebounds (7.5 RPG) while Jordan Hawkins is the Huskies' main outside threat with 15.9 PPG on 37.8 percent three-point shooting.
The Razorbacks match up well with just about everyone in the country. Guards Anthony Black and Nick Smith both project as one-and-done lottery picks in the NBA Draft, but it's actually Ricky Council IV that leads Arkansas in scoring at 16.1 PPG. Smith missed half of the season with injuries and his re-entry into the Razorbacks' lineup has been a bit choppy, as he went scoreless in just 16 minutes in the team's second-round win over Kansas. Arkansas runs so deep that the team was able to beat a No. 1 seed without any contribution from one of its stars. Deebo Davis, one of several Razorbacks that can get going at times, went off for a season-high 25 points vs. the Jayhawks.
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Betting Picks For Arkansas vs. UConn
UConn is a 3.5 point favorite over Arkansas, according to Caesars Sportsbook. The total sits at 139.5 points, and that's our best bet for Arkansas vs. UConn tonight.
UConn ranks fourth overall on KenPom and eighth in NET versus 18th and 21st for Arkansas. The Huskies have the nation's third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom, at 120.3 points per 100 possessions, and are 14th ranked in AdjDE as well at 93.4. They shoot well with a 53.8 percent Effective Field Goal percentage and gobble up their misses with a 38.8 percent offensive rebounding percentage -- second best in the country.
The sum of the parts has generally not clicked well enough for the Arkansas offense all season. Their 51.4 percent EFG percentage ranks just 131st, but the Razorbacks' do have one of the best defenses in the country.
Despite that, our betting pick for Arkansas vs. UConn is over 139.5 points. UConn's strength is defending the three-ball, but that may prove less of a factor in this matchup as Arkansas gets just 20.1 percent of its points from beyond the arc, one of the lowest numbers in the nation. Meanwhile, the two teams share an odd commonality in that they both foul a lot on defense. The Razorbacks 39.5 percent FTA/FGA ratio on defense puts them 333rd in the nation, and UConn at 38.3 percent is barely better. Even though both teams play excellent overall defense, a potential parade to the free throw line could push the quantity of possessions higher than projected.
Take the over in tonight's Arkansas vs. UConn game.
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