This article is part of our Betting Advice series.
For the first time since 2000, the Nathan's Famous 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest did not feature 16-time champion Joey Chestnut or 6-time champ Takeru Kobayashi. Chestnut was ruled ineligible to compete because of a deal he struck with plant-based food company Impossible Foods, while Kobayashi last competed in the event in 2009.
It didn't take long for Netflix to identify this as an opportunity and get a deal done to bring the two rivals together for one more showdown, titled: "Unfinished Beef." The event will air live on Labor Day, September 2nd. Though the major sportsbooks are not offering betting odds for it (yet?), you can get in on the action at PrizePicks and Underdog. I found the best value and locked in my picks yesterday!
Unfinished Beef: Betting Strategy
As I mentioned in my 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest article, there are factors beyond just the individual eaters' history to consider when betting on an eating contest.
Get the Best Line
No matter what sport, including competitive eating, it's important to check multiple sportsbooks and DFS sites to find the best odds. RotoWire Sports Betting pages compare odds at a variety of major sportsbooks to help you find the best value.
For this Labor Day eating event, there's a significant gap between the "hot dogs eaten" projections on PrizePicks compared to Underdog, giving us a considerable edge by making picks at one site over the other. If you're projecting higher totals, you'll find the value on Underdog, but if you're expecting lower totals, you'll want to choose "less" on PrizePicks.
Weather Matters
Year after year we see a correlation between the weather and the volume of hot dogs that we see eaten at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Typically, higher humidity has meant lower totals. In 2020, the one year when the contest was held indoors in perfect conditions, Joey Chestnut and women's champ Miki Sudo shattered the world records. Monday's event will take place indoors at the HyperX Arena in Las Vegas.
Special Rules
Kobayashi requested and was granted special rules. Though it's a common strategy in most contests, dunking hot dog buns in water will not be allowed during the 10-minute contest in Las Vegas. The Japanese eater told USA TODAY Sports through a translator, "There are a lot of athletes (who) through the dunking process managed to disintegrate, melt the bun in the water and a lot of cheating can occur." Chestnut speculated Kobayashi is trying to gain an edge because he last beat Chestnut at a hamburger eating contest without dunking in 2009. Separation of hot dogs from buns also will not be allowed.
Best Bets for Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef
Joey Chestnut over 62.5 hot dogs eaten (Underdog Fantasy)
Though the rule prohibiting dunking buns in water is concerning, I feel it is offset by the favorable conditions of competing indoors. Chestnut ate 75 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes when the Nathan's Contest was held indoors. He proved that he is still at the top of his game when he appeared at a charity event at Fort Bliss this 4th of July and ate at a record-setting pace of 57 hot dogs in five minutes.
2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating champion, Patrick Bertoletti, ate 58 dogs this year. I expect Chestnut to have that on his mind and establish his dominance again by blowing past that number. I was able to lock in my pick at 61.5 yesterday, but I still like the value that we are getting at 62.5, considering PrizePicks has the number set at 65.5 hot dogs eaten.
Takeru Kobayashi over 47.5 hot dogs eaten (Underdog Fantasy)
With Kobayashi we are forced into more of a guessing game because we haven't seen him compete recently, but I expect him to be ready for the challenge. Reports indicate that this isn't just a competitive rivalry; it's personal, with Kobayashi even claiming that Chestnut made "discriminatory, derogatory comments" about him when they competed together in the past.
It is worth noting that from 2001 to 2006, when Kobayashi was dominating the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, eaters were given 12 minutes to eat, and he averaged just over 50 hot dogs eaten. The rule changed to 10 minutes in 2008 and has been the standard ever since. Kobayashi peaked at 64.5 hot dogs in 10 minutes in 2009.
When is Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef, and How Can I Watch?
The contest will air Labor Day, Monday, September 2, 2024 on Netflix with two undercards.
In addition to the headlining matchup, competitive eater Matt Stonie will take on three decorated Olympians in a battle to see who can eat the most chicken wings. We will also see competitive eater Leah Shutkever attempt to set another Guinness World Record live during the show, as she tries to eat the most watermelon in three minutes.
