This article is part of our Betting Promotions series.
The Miami Hurricanes meet the Houston Cougars in a Sweet 16 matchup in Kansas City tonight. No. 1 seed Houston is favored by 7 points over No. 5 seed Miami at Caesars Sportsbook,
The Cougars ended the season as the nation's top-ranked team in the polls as well as on NET and KenPom. They do just about everything well on both sides of the ball, led by senior guard Marcus Sasser, who averages a team-leading 16.9 points per game. Fellow guard Jamal Shead lead the team with 5.4 assists per game while chipping in 10.4 PPG. Both are playing through injuries lately, as Sasser sat out the AAC championship game with a groin pull while Shead is dealing with a hyperextended knee. The good news for Houston is that both played at least 31 minutes against Auburn in Round 2, combining for 32 points. In the frontcourt, Jarace Walker and J'Wan Roberts combine for almost 15 rebounds and more than two blocks per game.
The Hurricanes can at least match up well with the Cougars' guards. Isaiah Wong averages 16.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, and 1.4 SPG. Jordan Miller adds 15.4 PPG and K-State transfer Nigel Pack puts up 13.4 PPG. On the inside, Miami got 17 rebounds from Norchad Omier in its second-round win over Indiana, and that kind of production will likely be needed again in the Sweet 16 vs. Houston. Omier is more than capable, averaging 10.1 RPG.
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Betting Picks For Miami vs. Houston
Houston is favored by 7 points against Miami with an over/under total of 138.5 points, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
It's incredibly tough to find a weak spot for the Cougars. They rank ninth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at KenPom at 118.5 points per 100 possessions, and fourth in AdjDE at 89.3. No other team is in the top 10 on both sides. They shoot well with a 52.1 Effective Field Goal percentage (70th best nationally) and defend even better with a 42.1 defensive EFG percentage, which ranks second. Houston generates turnovers on 21.5 percent of its defensive possessions, including the best block rate in the nation, at 16.8 percent. When the Cougars do miss shots, the aforementioned Walker and Roberts clean the glass as Houston is fourth nationally with a 37.4 percent offensive rebounding rate.
If there is an Achilles heel here, it's the rate the Cougars get to the foul line versus their opponents. Houston's FTA/FGA is a mediocre 28.8 percent, while on defense their opponents get free throws at 35.9 percent of their FGA rate.
Miami can stack up offensively with a 118.0 AdjOE and a 54.4 EFG percentage that is even better than that of Houston. The Hurricanes struggle mightily on the other end of the floor, with a 101.7 AdjDE that ranks just 108th. Ironically, Miami does keep its opponents off the line with a 23.8 percent FTA/FGA, but that is likely a byproduct of contesting shots relatively poorly with a 51 percent defensive EFG percentage.
Taking all of this into account, the betting pick for Miami vs. Houston is the under 138.5 points. The Cougars play at a 63.5 possession per game adjusted tempo pace -- one of the slowest in the country. Miami plays faster, but the Hurricanes will likely find it much more difficult to get the shots they want against Houston's tough defense. The Cougars found their groove in the second half of the Auburn game as they held the Tigers to a total of four field goals. Expect that to continue against Miami tonight.
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