This article is part of our Betting Promotions series.
Cinderella is alive and well in March Madness as the No. 15 seed Princeton Tigers have made it to the Sweet 16, where they will take on the No. 6 seed Creighton Bluejays in Louisville. Creighton is favored by 10 points over Princeton on BetMGM.
Princeton got hot when it mattered most, winning the Ivy League championship, followed by the upset of No. 2 seed Arizona and another victory over No. 7 seed Missouri in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. This Princeton squad ranks 116th in NET and 91st in KenPom with a grand total of one Quad 1 win all year prior to the NCAA Tournament -- the tournament-clinching victory over Yale in the Ivy League final.
The Tigers face another seemingly impossible task trying to take down Creighton. The Bluejays shook off an injury wave and a midseason six-game losing streak and are now ranked 17th in NET and 12th on KenPom. They played a tough schedule, both out of conference and in the Big East, going just 4-9 vs. Quad 1 opponents. This includes Creighton's second-round March Madness win over Baylor. Five Bluejays average in double figures, led by center Ryan Kalkbrenner at 15.7 points per game to go with 6.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Trey Alexander (13.6 PPG), Baylor Scheierman (12.5 PPG), Ryan Nembhard (12.4 PPG, including a career-high 30 vs. Baylor), and Arthur Kaluma (11.8 PPG) round out the Creighton offense. The Bluejays' only potential issue is one of depth beyond that, as they rarely give big minutes to anyone outside these five players.
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Betting Picks For Princeton vs. Creighton
Creighton is favored by 10 points over Princeton with an over/under total of 140.5, according to BetMGM.
The Bluejays rank 23rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on KenPom at 114.8 points per 100 possessions, and 13th in AdjDE at 93.3. They shoot a lot of threes, which represent 41.9 percent of the team's attempts, but they are actually a more effective inside shooting team thanks to Kalkbrenner. Creighton ranks 27th in two-point field goal percentage at 54.7 percent, but just 85th from beyond the arc at 35.8 percent.
On defense, Creighton holds opponents to a low 47.1 EFG percentage and keeps them off the foul line as well. The team's defensive 20.3 percent FTA/FGA rate ranks second nationally.
While Creighton played the 12th toughest schedule in the nation, according to KenPom, Princeton faced just the 172nd. The Tigers did not face a power conference opponent until March Madness, but then held Arizona to an 81.7 AdjOE and 44.7 EFG percentage in Round 1, and then won with offense in Round 2 with a 124.3 AdjOE and 53.2 EFG percentage vs. Missouri. The one thing Princeton truly excels at is defensive rebounding as their 77.3 percent rate ranks seventh in the nation. The Tigers managed to maintain that level in a two-game sample in the NCAA Tournament, grabbing 80.6 percent of the defensive boards vs. Arizona and 77.8 percent vs. Missouri.
Our best bet for Princeton vs. Creighton is under 140.5 points. Creighton should generally dominate as Princeton finds it tough to get going offensively. The wild card when it comes to betting over/under totals in college basketball is always a potential free throw fest down the stretch, as the trailing team keeps fouling. Save for that though, there is no reason to expect lots of points as both squads should keep the tempo down on Friday night.
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