This article is part of our Horse Racing series.
Preakness Stakes Picks
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Pimlico - Race 13
#3 MAGE (8/5 ml)
My second choice in the Kentucky Derby following the scratch of the favorite FORTE, MAGE went off at 15/1 odds and ran a brilliant race despite breaking slowly once again, saving ground in traffic along the inside near the back of the field, while my top pick KINGSBARNS led until the turn for home while setting very fast fractions for the distance.
As mentioned in my pre-race analysis of MAGE, he then showed sharp acceleration while launching his bid approaching the turn, angling outside for running room and coming widest of all into the stretch, then continuing on with a strong sustained rally to run down the tenacious TWO PHIL'S and score a one-length victory at the wire. This essentially mirrored his effort in the Florida Derby (his previous race), when MAGE made a similar wide rally around the turn (running right past the heavy favorite FORTE in the process), finishing strongly and making the lead in midstretch before FORTE suddenly kicked into gear and was able to reel MAGE in late.
My main concern with MAGE in the Kentucky Derby was the additional distance, but he wiped away that concern with his sharp win at 1 1/4 miles, and now actually cuts back to 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness, which probably won't hurt his chances here. MAGE has consistently run very well while climbing the class ladder, showing off a big turn of foot and plenty of toughness, and if anything he seems to be improving right now.
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On that front, he has continued to look good while galloping at Pimlico this week, appearing in good health and seemingly liking the local surface (though they're expecting rain in Baltimore this weekend). I saw an interview with MAGE's trainer yesterday which seemed to confirm that, as he said that MAGE had come out of the Derby very well and seemed to be thriving at Pimlico in his new surroundings. MAGE also figures to have gotten a lot of the Kentucky Derby from a conditioning standpoint, which perhaps is one reason why the Derby winner traditionally runs well in the Preakness Stakes (another positive angle in his favor). The lone problem with MAGE (aside from the chance of rain, which adds an unknown variable) is that he's gone from being a 15/1 longshot into being the 8/5 morning line favorite, and so there probably won't be much value from a wagering standpoint (now that the cat is out of the bag). That said, MAGE is definitely the horse to beat here, and I'm expecting another good run this weekend.