This article is part of our DFS MLB series.
About a month ago, I wrote an article on how to find value pitching and gave five names. For the most part, that group (Caleb Smith, Joe Musgrove, Brad Keller, Matthew Boyd and Max Fried) has done well since, outside of Joe Musgrove's last two starts.
It is about time we go digging again to find five more pitchers who qualify as a SP2 on DraftKings. The criteria is the pitchers' salary must be $8,000 or less.
Martin Perez, Twins
Perez was an offseason free-agent signing for the Twins and he was a former top prospect in the Rangers system. He was never able to figure it out in Texas whether it was the park or his health. But he made a major change to his pitching arsenal coming into the season. He scrapped his slider for a cutter which has made a world of difference. Also, his velocity was hitting upper 90s in spring training, which started to turn heads.
Perez has the benefit of the Twins offense backing him up at a tune of 7.8 runs per game, but Perez has been crazy good also. He posted 32.4 points against Houston at a $5,900 salary and 35.35 points on the road against Toronto at $6,600. I'm figuring his salary makes a jump close to the $8,000 range soon, so keep an eye and use him as much as you can now.
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks
Weaver came to the Diamondbacks via
About a month ago, I wrote an article on how to find value pitching and gave five names. For the most part, that group (Caleb Smith, Joe Musgrove, Brad Keller, Matthew Boyd and Max Fried) has done well since, outside of Joe Musgrove's last two starts.
It is about time we go digging again to find five more pitchers who qualify as a SP2 on DraftKings. The criteria is the pitchers' salary must be $8,000 or less.
Martin Perez, Twins
Perez was an offseason free-agent signing for the Twins and he was a former top prospect in the Rangers system. He was never able to figure it out in Texas whether it was the park or his health. But he made a major change to his pitching arsenal coming into the season. He scrapped his slider for a cutter which has made a world of difference. Also, his velocity was hitting upper 90s in spring training, which started to turn heads.
Perez has the benefit of the Twins offense backing him up at a tune of 7.8 runs per game, but Perez has been crazy good also. He posted 32.4 points against Houston at a $5,900 salary and 35.35 points on the road against Toronto at $6,600. I'm figuring his salary makes a jump close to the $8,000 range soon, so keep an eye and use him as much as you can now.
Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks
Weaver came to the Diamondbacks via the Paul Goldschmidt trade along with Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a draft pick. He is a 2014 first-round pick and had tremendous success in 2017, but the bottom fell out in 2018. A change of scenery has done him well as he has hit at least 2.8x in six of nine starts.
His salary has ranged from $6,300-$8,100, including being $8,000 on May 9 against the Braves. We might have to pay a little more than the $8,000 threshold, but it should be worth it. Five of his eight starts have produced more than 22 points, and he has been a slight favorite in only two starts.
Much like Perez, Weaver has gone through a pitch mix shift backing off his fastball from 56 to 51 percent and increasing his cutter from 5 to 14 percent. He has also backed off his changeup from 12.7 to 8.7 percent.
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Woodruff has put up at least 19 points in four out of his last five starts with an average salary of $7,600. His K/9 is 11.48 and has struck out at least five in every start. When you can bank six innings and six strikeouts in every start, that is what you want to find in a SP2. When you look at what might have changed for Woodruff, he has walked batters at a much lower clip in 2019. He has scaled back on his fastball usage (45 vs. 63 percent in 2018) and added a sinker which he throws 14 percent of the time.
Zach Davies, Brewers
It seems like the Brewers continue to find and develop players every year. Last year it was Josh Hader, Jesus Aguilar and Jhoulys Chacin. This year it is Woodruff and Zach Davies.
Davies average salary through eight starts is $7,200, ranging from $6,600-$7,900. He has hit at least 2.2x value in five of those starts. While he does not strike out a ton of batters, he does limit runs and has gone five innings in every start but one. The only thing that concerns me about Davies is the ERA being 1.54, while his FIP is 3.65 and xFIP is 4.72, so regression is coming.
Tyler Mahle, Reds
Mahle has pitched solid this season but is the victim of one of the lowest run supports in baseball (1.75 runs). His record is 0-5, with a 9.73 K/9, 1.79 BB/9 and xFIP of 3.02. He has gone at least five innings in every start. Mahle's average salary has been $7,400 with an average score of 15.6 points per game.
He has only had two starts less than 19 points, which means he is a solid cheap floor play as a SP2. Especially because he is generally an underdog so his ownership remains low.
Lance Lynn, Rangers (ROAD)
It is hard to find decent pitching less than $8,000 because so many of them have seen price increases, so I am digging a little bit more here. Lynn is a road play as his numbers in Texas have been terrible.
He has posted at least 18 points in four of five road starts, including games of 29 and 30 points. His one bad road start came against the A's. The other reason for value on Lynn is that he will most likely be an underdog against any team when he is on the road so ownership will be lower than normal.
Wade Miley, Astros (HOME)
Miley has one of the biggest home/road splits this season. In his three home starts, he has averaged 21.8 points versus his four road starts at 8.5 points. His salary has been in the $6,600-$7,700 so you are still getting great value on him. The good thing about Miley is he should always be favored at home unless going against an ace. Even though he is only averaging 5.96 K/9, he doesn't walk many batters, which keeps him out of trouble.
