This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We are dealing with the backend of rotations for Saturday's six-game evening slate, but we can strategically work our way through matchups in order to find plays. The upshot of this difficulty is there is no shortage of hitters to select to round out our lineups.
Pitchers
The Rangers' early offensive success is quite something considering a number of bats in their starting lineup – including Leody Taveras, Eli White, and Jose Trevino – began 2020 as bench players. This last point has me confidently going back to Chris Paddack ($9,200) despite underwhelming numbers both last year and during his first outing of 2021, as Texas ended the previous campaign with the league's second-lowest wOBA against righties.
Returns are (very) early, but there are reasons to believe Steven Matz ($8,700) may be in for a bounce-back season after his debut with the Blue Jays. The first of these is a velocity jump, as Matz's fastball came in an average of 1.3 MPH quicker in his outing against the Rangers than it did last season. Next, we see that 50 percent of the balls in play were grounders, which is a marked improvement from the 33 percent rate he kept last year. Whether these gains hold or not, Matz will almost certainly improve the 38 percent HR/FB rate from 2020. The 29-year-old may not need to worry about this against the Angels, as they hit the ball in the air at just a 34 percent clip against southpaws last year.
Garrett Richards ($6,700) got absolutely destroyed in his first outing against the Orioles, allowing six runs over two-plus innings. This certainly doesn't bode well for his start against the Birds at Camden Yards. But at this salary, it may be worth seeing if the 32-year-old was only having a bad day. While they were a slightly above-average offensive team overall, the Orioles' lineup ranked in the bottom-10 at home last season when it came to wOBA. It may be tough to trust Richards coming off such a poor showing, but he still throws the ball incredibly hard and is just a year removed from getting his swinging strike rate back over 11 percent.
Top Hitters
J.D. Martinez ($5,600) hasn't looked back after a subpar showing on Opening Day registering double-digit DraftKings points in nine straight contests. In real-world terms, this equates to a .560 wOBA in 37 plate appearances. Bruce Zimmermann threw the ball reasonably well in his first outing against the Red Sox, but has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard throughout his major-league career and finished his season at Triple-A Norfolk in 2019 with a 5.18 xFIP over 38.2 innings.
Wil Myers ($4,900) has been post-hype for so long that it was easy to dismiss the .606 slugging percentage he posted last year as a product of the shortened season. He's at it again with a .318/.464/.682 slash line in 28 plate appearances. Home runs have been a problem for Jordan Lyles throughout his career. This came to a head in 2020, when a 1.9 HR/9 rate contributed to a bloated 7.08 ERA in 12 games (nine starts).
Mike Moustakas ($4,500) almost certainly won't maintain a .706 slugging percentage for the rest of the season, but the veteran has always shown considerable power against right-handed pitching as evidenced by the .278 ISO in 97 at-bats last year. Riley Smith threw the ball well out of the bullpen in 2020, but has struggled at the higher levels as a starter as evidenced by the 6.89 ERA he posted in 12 starts at Triple-A Reno in 2019.
Bargain Bats
Randal Grichuk ($3,900) hammered left-handed pitching during the abbreviated 2020 campaign by notching a .262 ISO in 64 at-bats. Jose Quintana was kept off the field for much of last season while dealing with injuries, but logged a 4.45 xFIP against righty hitters in 171 innings in 2019 with the Cubs.
Kole Calhoun ($3,600) rejoined the D-Backs on Friday after recovering from a knee injury. The 33-year-old's .225 batting average against righty pitching last year hid how effective he can be for our purposes, as he demolished his opposite hand to the tune of a .303 ISO in 142 at-bats. Five years in Colorado can't be entirely blamed for Jeff Hoffman's staggeringly-high career ERA, which stands at 6.30 across 235.2 frames.
AJ Pollock ($3,500) has yet to hit for power in the young season, but the veteran could not be contained by southpaws in 2020 after logging a .429(!) ISO in 55 at-bats. Patrick Corbin lost a bit of his strikeout magic last year, which likely contributed to the .502 slugging percentage he allowed against right-handed batters in 50.1 innings. It's important to note here that Corbin hasn't yet been named the starter, but will take his turn after being activated off the COVID-19 list if manager Dave Martinez feels he is ready.
Stacks to Consider
Braves vs. Zach Eflin: Freddie Freeman ($5,100), Ozzie Albies ($4,400), Dansby Swanson ($4,300)
Eflin couldn't keep the ball in the yard against lefty hitters last year by allowing seven homers in 26 innings to go along with a .558 slugging percentage. It's a shame we can't complete the stack here, as Freeman and Albies are literally the only two left-handed bats in the standard starting lineup, but Swanson fits nicely as a reasonably-valued third option with a .216 ISO against righty arms in 2020.
D-Backs vs. Jeff Hoffman: Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,300) David Peralta ($3,800) Kole Calhoun ($3,600)
We talked about Hoffman's struggles above, which should make the D-Backs a perfect low-cost offense to load up on. Calhoun may be the prize here from a power perspective, but poolies shouldn't sleep on Peralta. The 33-year-old has shown power in the past and finished last campaign with a .350 wOBA and a 36 percent hard contact rate.
