This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Only one pitcher is listed in the $8,000 range on Saturday's five-game evening slate, which should give DFS players an indication of how tricky it can be to find value hurlers. We can use advanced metrics to try to identify an edge while taking the leftover salary and investing it against the subpar pitching options.
Pitching
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,500) has struggled for most of the season, but the 28-year-old seems to have figured things out in August with a 1.10 ERA accompanied by 24 strikeouts in only 16.1 innings. The Rangers' strikeout rate may be a bit lower than we would like (23 percent), but they enter the contest as the offense with the league's lowest wOBA against southpaws.
Joe Musgrove ($9,100) comes into his matchup with the Phillies armed with the third-most effective slider in baseball among qualified pitchers (12.7 RAA). While the Philly offense isn't easy in any environment, they should be more manageable on the road based on their .309 wOBA putting them solidly among the bottom half of the league.
Kyle Freeland's ($5,700) improvements in the second half of the season have been undeniable, as the 28-year-old has logged a 3.09 ERA while only allowing a .294 wOBA over 35 innings since the All-Star break. The D-Backs have hit the ball well against lefties this year, but have produced a negative run value against the curveball. This should be good news for Freeland, whose bender sits just below the top-10 in terms of most effective among pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings (6.2 RAA).
Top Hitters
Freddie Freeman's ($5,500) power numbers have dipped overall, but he's still caused plenty of trouble for right-handed pitchers based on a .237 ISO and .400 wOBA against across 316 at-bats. Meanwhile, Matt Harvey has been hit incredibly hard at Camden Yards this season allowing a .540 slugging percentage from 46.1 frames.
Jordan Lyles has kept a reverse split in 2021, as we can see from the .554 slugging percentage and .377 wOBA he's given up against same-handed opposition in 79.1 innings. Ditto for J.D. Martinez ($5,300), who has produced a .271 ISO and a .390 wOBA against righties over 280 at-bats.
It's been a remarkable year for Trey Mancini ($4,900), who was not only able to return to the field after beating colon cancer but is once again playing at a high level. The 29-year-old has been particularly effective against lefties with a .277 ISO and .385 wOBA across 282 at-bats. Drew Smyly has been hit the hardest by southpaws in a limited sample, but holds a 4.78 xFIP against righty bats in 78.2 innings.
Bargain Bats
Tommy Edman ($3,500) bats from both sides of the plate, but there's no question where he makes his best contributions considering he's posted a .250 ISO and .364 wOBA versus lefties. Dillon Peters threw the ball well enough in his season debut against the Brewers, but hasn't managed an xFIP below 4.50 at any level of professional baseball since 2017.
The Pirates' lineup provides little excitement from a DFS perspective, but Rodolfo Castro ($2,900) has performed well against left-handed pitching with a .269 ISO and .406 wOBA in 26 at-bats. J.A. Happ has thrown the ball well in August, but there's no real indication he'll meaningfully improve his 6.03 ERA based on a 5.41 xFIP from 16.2 frames.
There aren't many value options to consider at Coors Field, but Garrett Hampson ($3,200) is always worth a look when the squad is at home due to the .200 ISO and .377 wOBA he's notched over 180 at-bats. Zac Gallen has struggled mightily away from Chase Field by registering a 5.50 ERA across 36 innings.
Stacks to Consider
Braves against Matt Harvey: Freddie Freeman ($5,500) Adam Duvall ($4,600) Travis d'Arnaud ($4,400)
What you see is what you get with the powerful Atlanta offense, leaving us little to work with in terms of value plays. Duvall could be seen as something of a bargain against a mediocre right-hander as he's produced a .269 ISO against same-handed hurlers in 275 at-bats.
