This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
To put it simply, Thursday's four-game main slate is a bit of a mess from a DFS perspective. We only have four confirmed starting pitchers, two openers, and a whole lot of question marks. I take my best shot at sorting things out below, but those interested in playing will need to keep a close eye on developments before the 2:08 PM EDT lock time.
Pitching
Tony Gonsolin, LAD at SD ($8,800): DraftKings has Julio Urias in its "probable starter" queue as of the publication of this article, but I think Gonsolin is the more likely choice for a couple of reasons. The first is pretty simple: he's been the more dominant pitcher. Gonsolin finished the 2020 regular season with a 2.31 ERA and a 26 percent strikeout rate in nine games (eight starts). He also showcased a dominant fastball, with his heater amassing the fifth-highest RAA in the league among pitchers who threw at least 40 innings (11.2). By contrast, Urias notched a 3.27 ERA with just a 20 percent strikeout rate in 11 games (10 starts). The other reason I am leaning Gonsolin is the fact that Urias has already been used in a relief capacity during the postseason, and it makes some sense to want to keep a young pitcher in a designated role. The Padres had a slightly lower wOBA against southpaws this year, however, which could swing the decision in the other direction.
Cristian Javier, HOU vs. OAK ($7,700): Javier hasn't been named the starter for Game 4, but manager Dusty Baker said before Wednesday's contest that the choice was between him and Zack Greinke if Greinke was ready. We have no reason to believe this is the case and there is some logic in trying to keep Greinke out of this series if possible to give him more time to recover from an arm injury. If Javier does get the call, he will have at least one notable advantage against the A's lineup, as he logged a top-10 slider in terms of RAA among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2020. Meanwhile, Oakland finished the year with a bottom-3 RAA against the pitch.
Top Hitters
Mike Brosseau, TB at NYY ($5,000): Brousseau has just one postseason at-bat to his credit in 2020, but it's a veritable certainty that he will get the start against left-hander Jordan Montgomery on Thursday due to the .405(!) ISO and .455 wOBA he logged against southpaws in 42 at-bats. Montgomery had trouble with his opposite hand during the regular season, as we can see from the .489 slugging percentage and 1.9 HR/9 rate he allowed in 33 innings.
Aaron Judge, NYY vs. TB ($5,000): The Rays will begin the game with right-hander Ryan Thompson, while lefty Ryan Yarbrough is the odds-on favorite to take over after an inning or two. Judge stung both righties and lefties during the 2020 regular season but was most unforgiving against his opposite hand, tallying a .360 ISO in 25 at-bats.
Best Values
A.J. Pollock, LAD at SD ($4,100): Adrian Morejon may be an opener, but he generally throws between 30-40 pitches in an outing, meaning we should plan on getting at least two at-bats against him with our chosen hitters. Pollock absolutely tattooed left-handed pitching this year, as evidenced by the .473 ISO and .468 wOBA he logged against them in 55 at-bats.
Brian Anderson, MIA vs. ATL ($3,800): The Braves may feel like they are playing with house money up 2-0 in the series, as Kyle Wright finished 2020 with a 5.21 ERA in eight games. Anderson was a force against same-handed pitchers during the season, notching a robust .236 ISO against them in 144 at-bats.
Stacks to Consider
Astros against Frankie Montas: Kyle Tucker ($3,800) Michael Brantley ($3,700) Josh Reddick ($2,200)
The way balls have been flying out of Dodger Stadium during this series, DFS players should really be able to roster from both sides of the platoon, but I've chosen to focus on lefty bats due to the .630 slugging percentage Frankie Montas allowed against his opposite hand during the 2020 regular season. What's striking here is just how much value we get on three hitters in a great spot, which would allow prospective owners to load up on pricier options.
Rays against Jordan Montgomery: Mike Brosseau ($5,000) Willy Adames ($4,100) Randy Arozarena ($3,800)
The Rays seem to have been built to hammer left-handed pitching, as Adames' .277 ISO is the lowest such mark any of our three hitters logged against southpaws during the regular season. This may leave one to wonder how long Montgomery's leash will be, but it's important to take the advantage while we have it.
