Farm Futures: Eastern League Hitters Roundup

Our tour of the minor leagues continues this week with a trip to the Eastern League to look at what some notable Double-A hitters have been up to over the first five weeks of the season. The prospects are listed in approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.

J.P. Crawford, SS, Reading (Phillies): .269/.406/.375, two HR, five 2B, 4-for-7 on SB attempts, 19:25 K:BB in 128 PA.

The Phillies are a team that really knows what they are doing on the developmental side. It would have been so easy to just start Crawford at Triple-A this year after he played 86 games at Double-A in 2015, but instead they sent him back to the Eastern League, where the results have been interesting, to say the least. His 25 walks are tied for the most by any hitter at Double-A, and he is a 21-year-old who will stick at shortstop long term. That's an awfully rare feat. Meanwhile, he's not hitting for much power, and is not driving balls with the regularity that his dynasty league owners would hope for.

J.P. Crawford continues to have good ABs ending with poor contact (a lot of infield foul fly balls)

— Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) May 10, 2016

Would it make sense for him to adopt a slightly more aggressive approach that could lead to more extra-base hits, more strikeouts and fewer walks? It seems too early in the developmental process to tell a player with that kind of plate awareness to swing more, but it's something to consider when projecting his long-term fantasy value. He could be the rare kind of player who shows up on WAR leader boards but is never thought of as a top-50 fantasy option if he's not hitting at least 15 homers annually. We already know that the speed will be solid, but not game-changing (think 12-18 steals during peak seasons), so the batting average and runs will really have to carry the day. His floor, position eligibility, and proximity to the big leagues (late-2016/early-2017) make him a top-10 prospect for dynasty leagues, but it's easy to point out players behind him on the updated top-200 that have higher ceilings.

David Dahl, OF, Hartford (Rockies): .288/.383/.631, nine HR, one 3B, nine 2B, 11-for-13 on SB attempts, 34:16 K:BB in 129 PA.

Dahl is the fantasy standout from the Eastern League through five weeks. He has nine home runs through 28 games after hitting just 29 homers in 275 professional games prior to this season. It's not like power was never part of the expected package with Dahl, but he's certainly made a point of reminding people that it's a significant part of his game in the early going. A 26.4 percent K-rate has accompanied that power, but so has a career-high 12.4 percent walk rate, which is a perfectly acceptable combination for a run-producing bat.

His speed is also showing up in a way that it hasn't in previous seasons, suggesting he's finally healthy after missing significant time last season. Prorated, Dahl could be on the verge of a 40/40 season, likely splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. Obviously there should be some regression coming, but if he stays healthy, 30/30 seems legitimately doable at this point. If that happens, his dynasty league stock will be at an all-time high this offseason, and he'll open next year as a surefire top-10 prospect.

There remains a slight chance that he'll join the Rockies sometime in the second half, but that would seem like an error in judgment as he's missed developmental time, and a full healthy season in the upper levels of the minors would better set him up to have success immediately upon joining the big league outfield. That said, if he were to get the call, he has the tools to warrant aggressive FAAB bids in all formats.

Bradley Zimmer, OF, Akron (Indians): .248/.354/.550, seven HR, three 3B, six 2B, 13-for-17 on SB attempts, 40:18 K:BB in 127 PA.

Clint Frazier, OF, Akron (Indians): .261/.331/.445, three HR, 13 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 30:13 K:BB in 131 PA.

A lot jumps out when initially glancing at what Zimmer, 23, and Frazier, 21, have been up to so far at Double-A Akron. For starters, if someone had said that one of the Indians' top two hitting prospects would be striking out at a 30.7 percent clip at this point in the season, I'm guessing almost everyone would have pegged Frazier to be that guy. Instead, it's the elder statesman, Zimmer, who is fanning at a career-high clip in his second taste of the Eastern League. In fact, I thought Frazier was bound to look slightly outmatched early in his first taste of Double-A pitching, and while he trails Zimmer in the power and speed tallies, his approach against more advanced pitchers with quality breaking balls has been impressive to say the least.

The tables seem to have turned, somewhat. Frazier always carried the high-risk/high-reward tag dating back to when he boasted the best bat speed among prep hitters in the 2013 draft. Evaluators have also noted Frazier's potential for above average speed to go with what could be 30-homer power, while the question about whether he'd make enough contact for his tools to play always lingered. Zimmer, on the other hand, was seen as the steady jack-of-all-trades, master of none, who would not wow fantasy owners in any one category, but could be a five-category contributor who would play every day thanks to above average defense in center field and enough arm to have a future home in right field when his speed took a step back. Now Zimmer looks like the high-upside guy with contact concerns, while Frazier looks like a high-floor 21-year-old who's more than handling his first taste of the upper levels.

The two hitters have obviously made some conscious changes at the plate this season. Zimmer seems intent on being more aggressive, as the career-high K-rate has also come with career-high power numbers. His .303 ISO is almost double his career rate prior to 2016, and he has almost half the 16 homers he hit in 127 games last year. The overall results are a net positive in real life terms, assuming he can keep that K-rate at 30 percent or lower, so it's probably time for fantasy owners to assume these changes are here to stay, and to scale back the batting average expectations and up the anticipated power numbers. At this point it's not out of line to suggest that Zimmer's future big league production could mirror that of George Springer, or at least what we envision Springer doing over a full season, since he has yet to accomplish that feat.

Frazier hasn't necessarily made any wholesale tweaks, but he appears to have made a conscious decision not to sell out for power, instead valuing making solid contact (the league-leading 13 doubles really stand out) and getting on base in a way that will allow him to hit first or second in a lineup as he continues to move up the ladder. This is excellent news, as his power will inevitably start to show itself more in games as he matures, and the current approach will allow for him to continue to receive promotions and develop his game at a pace that will endear him to dynasty league owners.

As for 2016 production, Zimmer could debut in the second half, while Frazier seems poised to debut in the first half of 2017. The Indians desperately need some offensive reinforcements, but they are also not going to call Zimmer up until July, at the earliest, as they are not an organization that shuns Super-2 concerns. With this in mind, he's worth a stash in AL-only leagues and deep mixers with deep benches. The fact that Zimmer is already showing the power and speed that we would like to see from Frazier long term tilts the scales slightly in Zimmer's favor, but both hitters have upped their dynasty league stock so far in 2016.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Hartford (Rockies): .240/.339/.344, 10 2B, 7-for-7 on SB attempts, 34:14 K:BB in 117 PA.

McMahon's owners would be excused for doing a double take at first glancing at his numbers at Double-A, as he has already topped last year's total of six steals, while failing to hit a single home run. This is not the player anybody signed up for, but fortunately he's just 21 years old and we're less than 25 percent of the way into the minor league season. His BABIP of .354 actually represents a career low, which gives a little credence to the notion that McMahon was a little overrated before the year, but he still projects to play in Coors Field, so he can still be an impact bat down the road. Let's check back in a month.

Dominic Smith, 1B, Binghamton (Mets): .282/.323/.427, three HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 24:7 K:BB in 124 PA.

At just 20 years old, Smith is already halfway to matching the six homers he hit in 118 games at High-A last year, so he is getting to more in-game power, even if his power numbers still don't jump off the page. This is all part of the developmental process. Smith is very reminiscent to fellow first base prospect Josh Bell, in that he often gets dismissed due to a perceived lack of power for the position, even though his hit tool is good enough that he can still put up top-15 numbers for a first baseman without hitting 25 homers annually.

Raimel Tapia, OF, Hartford (Rockies): .239/.300/.402, four HR, one 3B, five 2B, 4-for-7 on SB attempts, 18:11 K:BB in 131 PA.

Tapia is starting to heat up at the plate, with nine hits and two home runs over his last five games. If he were posting a typical BABIP above .300, people would be talking about how his K-rate (13.7 percent) is lower than it has been since 2013 and how he is on pace to hit 20 home runs for the first time as a professional. Instead, his .247 BABIP has him flying a little under the radar. There is still some bust potential here due to his slight physical build, as I touched on after seeing him in the Arizona Fall League, but I'm buying Tapia if he can be had for a prospect outside the top-75.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, New Hampshire (Blue Jays): .143/.299/.275, three HR, three 2B, 25:22 K:BB in 117 PA.

Here's the most disappointing performance so far among Eastern League hitters, as Tellez had looked like an advanced hitter with a high floor at all his other stops. He was even quite impressive in the AFL, often against pitching that is comparable to what he has seen at Double-A. Of course, a .149 BABIP is the first thing that jumps out, so his numbers should tick up as the season wears on, but it will be interesting to see how long the Blue Jays allow him to continue at this level if he doesn't snap out of this funk soon. I still believe in Tellez as a starting big league first baseman long term, with the upside to be a top-15 fantasy option at the position, so he's a buy-low candidate in leagues that roster more than 100 prospects. Unfortunately he may not be ready to take over at first base next year for Toronto as I initially expected.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Reading (Phillies): .239/.301/.440, six HR, four 2B, 36:10 K:BB in 123 PA.

Hoskins, like Tapia, appears to be getting a little unlucky on balls in play, but unlike Tapia, he is posting by far the worst K-rate of his career (27.6 percent). It's good to see that he has carried his home run stroke up the ladder against more advanced pitching, but it would be nice if he could drop that K-rate back under 20 percent, where it had settled in his two prior campaigns. He's not a high pedigree guy, and is unranked on real life lists, so it requires some belief on the part of his owners to stick with him, knowing he probably won't fetch much on the open market. I still think he has a good shot at getting a look at first base in Philadelphia sometime in 2017.

Chance Sisco, C, Bowie (Orioles): .342/.462/.421, six 2B, 10:17 K:BB in 94 PA.

Sisco leads the league in OBP, and he would probably lead some rec softball leagues in OBP if he kept up this pace. He'll likely settle in as something closer a .400 OBP guy over the full season, and that plate discipline and hit tool combo remain paramount if he wants to make it as an everyday catcher. The power will likely never be average, and the defense will likely never be above average, but as long as he's this effective at the plate, he'll get a shot.

Christian Arroyo, SS, Richmond (Giants): .275/.314/.385, one HR, one 3B, seven 2B, 20:6 K:BB in 119 PA.

Arroyo continues to demonstrate an excellent hit tool and contact skills, despite being one of the younger players in the league at 20 years old. He will have to walk a very fine line to be fantasy relevant, as there is no reason to expect above average power or speed totals, so he needs to continue to show off that hit tool. It's not unreasonable to think he can offer enough value to be a middle-infield option in mixed leagues, but this is definitely a floor over ceiling prospect, which will understandably turn some owners off.

Dylan Cozens, OF, Reading (Phillies): .276/.361/.552, eight HR, eight 2B, 8-for-9 on SB attempts, 35:16 K:BB in 133 PA.

Cozens might be in the midst of his breakout campaign. The raw power has always been there for the six-foot-six right fielder, but this is the first year that it has really started to show up in games in a meaningful way. He doesn't have plus speed, but the fact that he's been so successful early on suggests he could offer double-digit steals for a couple of years when he first reaches the big leagues. Right now, it's hard to argue that Cozens won't get a chance to prove he's the long-term solution in right field in Philadelphia, at least against right-handed pitching, and that opportunity could present itself in early 2017.

Wilmer Difo, SS, Harrisburg (Nationals): .219/.311/.276, one 3B, four 2B, 11-for-11 on SB attempts, 16:14 K:BB in 120 PA.

Difo is on the short list of prospects I'd like to see get dealt to another organization. He won't be anything other than a bench bat for Washington in 2017 or 2018, barring an injury, and he's the type of player who needs to compile statistics over a full season of everyday at-bats to offer much help in mixed leagues. The speed is still very legit, as is the approach, but this no longer looks like a player who could help out in the near future.

Dustin Fowler, OF, Trenton (Yankees): .240/.295/.308, one 3B, five 2B, 7-for-12 on SB attempts, 17:7 K:BB in 117 PA.

This has been a disappointment, as just as soon as Fowler got the non-believers to buy in, he shows up in 2016 and fails to hold up his end of the bargain. The package includes a strong hit tool, plus speed, solid defense and the projection for more pop than he's shown to date, but he's not the type of prospect who can be flipped for much in dynasty leagues, so he should not be viewed as a commodity. There's also the issue of him earning playing time in New York. Fowler could be good enough to be an everyday player, but he may not be good enough to be an everyday player for the Yankees.

Roman Quinn, OF, Reading (Phillies): .261/.336/.374, one HR, three 3B, four 2B, 13-for-16 on SB attempts, 31:11 K:BB in 128 PA.

Quinn is essentially another Mallex Smith, where the smart money's on him not hitting enough against big league pitching to play every day, but the 80-grade speed makes it so that someone has to take a chance on him in almost all formats. Unlike Smith, Quinn could struggle to earn playing time competing with the likes of Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Dylan Cozens and Aaron Altherr, so he may be afforded an even shorter leash. He's closing in on 100 games at Double-A, including his stint with Reading last season, so he could head to Triple-A fairly soon, although I highly doubt he reaches the big leagues this year as anything other than a September callup.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Bowie (Orioles): .292/.375/.481, five HR, five 2B, 4-for-4 on SB attempts, 16:14 K:BB in 120 PA.

Tyler Wade, SS, Trenton (Yankees): .257/.364/.376, one HR, two 3B, five 2B, 4-for-5 on SB attempts, 13:17 K:BB in 120 PA.

Harold Ramirez, OF, Altoona (Pirates): .242/.306/.333, three 3B, three 2B, 15:4 K:BB in 109 PA

Yandy Diaz, 3B, Akron (Indians): .286/.445/.381, two HR, one 3B, 6-for-8 on SB attempts, 16:24 K:BB in 110 PA.

Nelson Rodriguez, 1B, Akron (Indians): .241/.317/.509, eight HR, six 2B, 46:13 K:BB in 126 PA.

Reese McGuire, C, Altoona (Pirates): .222/.349/.278, one HR, one 2B, 7:14 K:BB in 86 PA.

Wendell Rijo, 2B, Portland (Red Sox): .186/.245/.291, one HR, six 2B, 24:7 K:BB in 94 PA.

Jake Cave, OF, Trenton (Yankees): .288/.353/.510, three HR, three 3B, eight 2B, 28:10 K:BB in 116 PA.

Erich Weiss, 2B, Altoona (Pirates): .295/.391/.505, three HR, three 3B, five 2B, 19:14 K:BB in 111 PA.