Farm Futures: Top 400 Prospects Update

The top 400 prospect rankings were fully updated Friday! I will be updating the team top 20s, ETAs, OBP arrows, etc. ... over the next few days, but I wanted to post an accompanying article with some thoughts on some of the more noteworthy prospects. You can leave all questions in the comments section of this article or you can reach out to me on Twitter.

• As you can tell by the fact I have them back-to-back-to-back-to-back on the dynasty rankings, which were updated last week, Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and CJ Abrams are all No. 1 caliber prospects and I think you could reasonably prefer any of them over the others. Rodriguez is probably my favorite pure talent, but he is also (artificially) at the lowest level of the minors of this foursome.
• Brennen Davis has been the big surprise in terms of people commenting on his rank, but he has been sniffing around this zone for a while, as evidenced by the fact he wasn't moved up enough to generate even one green arrow. He is a plus runner with 70-grade raw power who has never dealt with worrisome strikeout issues. If we stack up his tools and ETA (early 2022) with the players outside the top five, I think it's pretty clear he belongs in this range.
• Noelvi Marte and Marco Luciano will be linked as the top players from the 2018 J-2 class, and while Luciano was the top guy on signing day and throughout the majority of their pro careers to date, I think Marte has moved ahead of him based on how they're each performing as 19-year-olds at Low-A and because Marte has five-category upside while Luciano won't be a threat on the bases.
• While Vidal Brujan obviously belongs in the top 20, this was a massive jump for him. He got as high as No. 20 overall in September of 2019, but my concerns about him ever getting everyday playing time on this loaded roster led to him slipping as low as 93 at one point this offseason. The Rays aren't any less crowded, but Brujan now projects as an impactful offensive producer who won't be denied playing time. I was much too low on him preseason.
• I think there is a clear tier from 1-4 and from 6-15, and Bobby Witt is kind of in a tier of his own in between those two groupings. Spencer Torkelson is looking a lot better of late than he did to start the year, so I could see him being back in the top 10 on the next update.
• I've been getting some "Where is Hedbert Perez?" or "Where is Wilman Diaz?" questions. Every hitter who signed at the age of 16 as part of the 2019 J-2 class (Jasson Dominguez, Hedbert Perez, Erick Pena, Maximo Acosta, etc...) is in extended spring training and will open the year in the AZL, or in Dominguez's case, the GCL. Robert Puason is an exception — the A's opted to throw him in the deep end by assigning him to Low-A and he has predictably been completely overmatched at the plate. The guys who signed at 16/17 as part of the 2020 J-2 class that ended up signing on Jan. 15, 2021 (Wilman Diaz, Carlos Colmenarez, Cristian Hernandez, Pedro Pineda, etc...), are also in extended spring training and could receive aggressive assignments to the AZL/GCL and in some cases they will open in the DSL. The main takeaway is that they're not worse prospects because they predictably didn't make their pro debuts at Low-A. They're right on schedule. Those leagues open play June 28 and I can't wait.
• Jackson Kowar is the only pitching prospect I strongly endorse stashing now that Alek Manoah is up, and if you've been listening to the podcast or radio show you should have gotten the jump on both Manoah and Kowar. Now that Kowar's breaking ball is looking like an average offering, there's nothing obvious that would stop him from having success right away in the majors other than the fact that he's a pitching prospect and many of the best pitching prospects struggle initially in the majors. He could be up any day now.
• George Kirby was originally in that tier with Grayson Rodriguez, Shane McClanahan, Kowar and Max Meyer, but Kirby missed three weeks for an undisclosed reason and returned to throw 2.1 scoreless innings June 4. I'm just a tad worried that he may have been dealing with an arm injury, which wouldn't be surprising after his velocity jumped last year. I kind of wish he'd just stayed the exact pitcher he was at Elon rather than adding velocity and losing a touch of that elite command that made him such an appealing draft prospect. All that said, he could easily be a top three pitching prospect for me on the next update if he's been healthy and effective.
• Michael Busch is who people thought Nolan Jones would be offensively. Who knows when there will be playing time available for Busch, but he'll be ready to do damage early next year. Meanwhile, Jones' 41 percent strikeout rate is pretty scary. He's a hold for me in OBP leagues, but you might be able to do better in shallower batting average leagues.
• You'll notice that Corbin Carroll (14), Pete Crow-Armstrong (61) and Travis Swaggerty (84) haven't really budged despite being out with season-ending injuries. I just loved what I saw from them so much prior to the injuries that I'm not going to ding them. In fact, had they stayed healthy, Carroll would likely rank fifth or sixth, PCA could be in the top 40 and Swaggerty would be top 50. These are the types of prospects to try trading for, especially if you're rebuilding.
• Cade Cavalli is a total stud. He opened the year ahead of Emerson Hancock on my rankings, and has already passed Asa Lacy. In fact, he's closer to being first among college starters from the 2020 draft (right now that's Meyer) than third (that's now Slade Cecconi).
• Jesus Sanchez and Nick Pratto both went from outside the top 200 to inside the top 50. Pratto had been a top 100 guy for a while a couple years ago and Sanchez climbed as high as 17 back in 2018. These are two great examples of prospect development being anything but linear. Sanchez should be back up this summer and I wouldn't completely rule out Pratto making it up this year, but he's more likely to be up in early 2022.
• Man, was I wrong about Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene preseason. I didn't have anything to go on from 2020 beyond public reports that were all quite pessimistic regarding their time at the alternate training site, but I obviously overreacted to those reports. I still think Greene is incredibly risky, given how hard he throws, but if he's healthy and locating his fastball, he's going to be a problem. Lodolo has looked really good.
• No, I don't know what's wrong with MacKenzie Gore or when he'll be ready to be an option in the majors.
• JJ Bleday has been one of the more disappointing hitters for me thus far. There was some thought he could open the year at Triple-A, after all, Andrew Vaughn is from the same class and he opened in the majors. Not only did Bleday get a soft landing at Double-A, but while classmate Adley Rutschman has a 160 wRC+ at Double-A, Bleday has been below league average as a hitter (86 wRC+).
• Angel Martinez is the top Low-A hitter to try adding in shallower leagues — I know he's long gone in competitive deep leagues.
• What Gabriel Moreno is doing as a 21-year-old catcher at Double-A has been extraordinary. I know the Jays view him as their catcher of the future, so if he keeps this up we'll see him in early 2022. Catching prospects are often best ignored in dynasty, but Moreno is a priority add for me in any league where he's still available.
• Kyle Harrison has nasty stuff. As a 19-year-old pitcher he's very risky and his control has been shaky, but if he stays healthy I think he'll be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a year from now.
• I'm buying what Brandon Williamson, Jake Eder, Alec Marsh, Logan Allen (the good one who was just drafted) and Matt Canterino are selling. Williamson, Eder and Canterino probably have the highest ceilings of this group.
• Kyren Paris, Jhonkensy Noel, Alec Burleson, and Anthony Volpe are four hitters who you should check on in case they haven't been scooped yet in your dynasty league. Paris was ranked coming into the year, but the other three weren't.
• Chris Gittens is getting the call the day after the rankings went live! I'm very excited about this, as Gittens' raw power is up there with the any player alive. Triple-A pitchers didn't want any piece of him this year, and it will be interesting to see where his K-rate settles against big-league pitching.
• Bailey Falter is my favorite realistic add in dynasty leagues this weekend. He's out there in pretty much all of my leagues, and I think he's got at least No. 3 starter upside after seeing an uptick in velocity last fall. Guys like Zac Gallen and Mike Clevinger went from complete afterthoughts to impact MLB starters in the blink of an eye, and while I'm not saying Falter will follow that path, it's possible.
• If you're rostering A.J. Puk or Brent Honeywell, you should be rooting for them to follow the Alex Reyes path and start getting saves in the majors at some point.

FEATURES YOU SHOULD BE USING

I know many of you already do this, but in order to maximize your experience on this site, you should sync your dynasty leagues using the My Leagues feature. There should be a prompt for you at the top of the top 400 prospect rankings page. This will allow you to quickly see which players are available in your dynasty leagues, among other things. I didn't even utilize this tool until about a year ago and I really wish I'd started sooner, as it's a massive time saver.

Additionally, you should check out the MiLB batted ball data we've got. We don't get it from every minor-league ballpark unfortunately, but it can help uncover guys like Kaden Polcovich, who has a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate this year at High-A and is trending toward the top 200.