This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
This is a spin-off of the Rookie Tiers article I do for the baseball magazine every year. With NFBC leagues up and running, I wanted to get the first version of this article out sooner than ever before. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. With this being for the website and not the magazine, I was able to include essentially every hitter (103 total) who I think has a decent enough chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible, but I'm sure there is at least one or two guys who I accidentally omitted.
High Cost, Total Package
There is only one hitting prospect who belongs anywhere near the top 100 picks of a redraft league, and that is Witt. He has similar tools to peak Trevor Story with a much worse home ballpark. Many, myself included, believe he could break camp on the big-league roster. I have no idea where his ADP will settle, but it will surely creep up during spring training. He has the power/speed/playing time combination we crave, but the gap between Triple-A
This is a spin-off of the Rookie Tiers article I do for the baseball magazine every year. With NFBC leagues up and running, I wanted to get the first version of this article out sooner than ever before. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. With this being for the website and not the magazine, I was able to include essentially every hitter (103 total) who I think has a decent enough chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible, but I'm sure there is at least one or two guys who I accidentally omitted.
High Cost, Total Package
There is only one hitting prospect who belongs anywhere near the top 100 picks of a redraft league, and that is Witt. He has similar tools to peak Trevor Story with a much worse home ballpark. Many, myself included, believe he could break camp on the big-league roster. I have no idea where his ADP will settle, but it will surely creep up during spring training. He has the power/speed/playing time combination we crave, but the gap between Triple-A and the majors is so huge right now that I'm skeptical of how his hit tool translates initially. I probably won't have many, if any, redraft shares.
Blue Chippers Who Will Be Up Soon
-------------------------------------
There is a tier gap within this tier. The first five guys could conceivably break camp in the majors depending on the service-time rules in the new CBA. Even if they didn't break camp and even if the service-time rules remain the same, they'd probably be up within a few weeks. The next five could maybe earn a spot early in the season or even out of spring training, but I could also see them being held at Triple-A for a couple months, which makes it tough to justify rostering them in anything other than a draft and hold or mono-league format.
Proximity + Talent and/or Opportunity
ROYALS
GIANTS
TWINS
PHILLIES
CLEVELAND
PIRATES
ASTROS
DIAMONDBACKS
CUBS
TIGERS
This tier is the sweet spot for draft and holds. I'm really not sure how the playing time will shake out for Pratto and Melendez, so hopefully that will become clearer as Opening Day approaches. At the very least, both players deserve a look in the big leagues, so the Royals should find a way to make that happen sooner than later. Of the players in this tier, Leon is the best prospect for dynasty leagues due to his upside, but the readiness of his hit tool is still very much in question, which makes his ETA quite murky. I wouldn't be surprised if Pena, who will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, got first crack at shortstop early in the year while Leon gets more reps at Triple-A. Bart, Isbel, Beer and Rivas are candidates to open the year in the majors, but Isbel is the only one who appeals to me for redraft leagues due to his well-rounded skill set. I like the Cleveland and Pittsburgh guys quite a bit if they are given a shot to play every day early in the season. The Tigers will probably keep Kreidler at Triple-A for a couple months.
Proximity Without Opportunity
RAYS
WHITE SOX
CLEVELAND
CARDINALS
RED SOX
YANKEES
METS
ANGELS
PADRES
REDS
Every player in this tier is big-league ready or close to it. The two Rays guys are obviously the ones with the most pedigree and upside, but as things stand, they don't have a clear place to play in the majors. Even with them being blocked, I'd rather roll the dice on them than on the guys in the tier above. I've been lower on Duran this whole time, and I don't see a team as good as the Red Sox giving him legitimate playing time early in the season unless he has a monster spring training and/or they deal with injuries in the outfield. Burger and Gittens are guys I'd like as end-game plays if they had a clear path to playing time, but both are pretty firmly blocked.
Opportunity + Low Probability
CLEVELAND
ATLANTA
ROCKIES
PIRATES
DIAMONDBACKS
ATHLETICS
RANGERS
PADRES
PHILLIES
NATIONALS
These guys all have clear avenues to the big leagues, but they all have some shortcoming that makes them unappealing to me for 2022. Montero, Fairchild, Ellis and Vierling probably have the best combination of likelihood of spending time in the majors and potential to be neutral or better fantasy options at some point during the season in a draft and hold.
Proximity and/or Opportunity Concerns
TWINS
ROYALS
CLEVELAND
DODGERS
BLUE JAYS
METS
YANKEES
GIANTS
MARLINS
ORIOLES
CUBS
DIAMONDBACKS
RAYS
RANGERS
PADRES
PIRATES
BREWERS
There is a wide range of prospect caliber within this tier, but the main takeaway is these guys are either firmly blocked, multiple months away from being big-league ready or not talented enough to worry about in most formats.
Catching Depth
These catchers all have a decent chance to spend time in the majors, but I'd bet against them being positive contributors in fantasy in 2022.
