Lineup Lowdown: National League

Lineup Lowdown: National League

This article is part of our Lineup Lowdown series.

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

RotoWire's awesome Playing Time Changes tool aided me in putting this together.

Atlanta

-- It's been an eventful start to Sean Murphy's career in Atlanta. Travis d'Arnaud was actually seeing a tick more playing time than Murphy for the first week (when you include starts at designated hitter) as Murphy got off to a slow start and d'Arnaud was hot. Then, d'Arnaud suffered a concussion and Murphy took off. Since April 10, Murphy is batting .313 with eight home runs and 20 RBI covering 17 games. All but two of Murphy's last 18 starts have come in the cleanup spot, and the other two games he was batting fifth. His quality of contact has been elite and he's been among the league leaders in walk rate, as well.

-- The only other player to bat cleanup for Atlanta during the aforementioned 17-game stretch has been Ozzie Albies, who has hit there three times. Albies hasn't had a day off yet and is on a 40-homer, 130-RBI pace, putting to rest any lingering injury concerns.

-- The most productive outfielder for the team not named Ronald Acuna has been Sam Hilliard. Hilliard has hit three homers, stolen four bases and entered

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

RotoWire's awesome Playing Time Changes tool aided me in putting this together.

Atlanta

-- It's been an eventful start to Sean Murphy's career in Atlanta. Travis d'Arnaud was actually seeing a tick more playing time than Murphy for the first week (when you include starts at designated hitter) as Murphy got off to a slow start and d'Arnaud was hot. Then, d'Arnaud suffered a concussion and Murphy took off. Since April 10, Murphy is batting .313 with eight home runs and 20 RBI covering 17 games. All but two of Murphy's last 18 starts have come in the cleanup spot, and the other two games he was batting fifth. His quality of contact has been elite and he's been among the league leaders in walk rate, as well.

-- The only other player to bat cleanup for Atlanta during the aforementioned 17-game stretch has been Ozzie Albies, who has hit there three times. Albies hasn't had a day off yet and is on a 40-homer, 130-RBI pace, putting to rest any lingering injury concerns.

-- The most productive outfielder for the team not named Ronald Acuna has been Sam Hilliard. Hilliard has hit three homers, stolen four bases and entered play Monday ranking in the 91st percentile or higher in exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate and sprint speed. He's also sporting a 44 percent strikeout rate and doesn't play versus lefties. With Michael Harris back, Hilliard figures to be fighting with Eddie Rosario for starts in left field against righties. At the very least, he's made it easier to designate Marcell Ozuna for assignment, a move which could happen any day now. Ozuna has started just three of the last 11 contests.

Miami Marlins

-- Just as Bryan De La Cruz's playing time began to stabilize, he fell into a major slump. Over his last six games, the outfielder has gone 1-for-24 with a whopping 14 strikeouts. The good news for De La Cruz is that his quality of contact has still been pretty good and the Marlins also might finally be souring on the struggling Avisail Garcia, who has started just one of the last four games. Jesus Sanchez has started each of the team's last four games against righties and is showing some signs of life at the dish.

-- Jon Berti has been on the bench for two of the last three games against righties and has been the choice to start at shortstop in just two of the last nine contests. Garrett Hampson has started at short in those other seven games and has made an additional start in right field over that span. While Hampson might be leap-frogging Berti in the pecking order, it could become a bit of a moot point soon with Joey Wendle (intercostal) poised to return in short order.

New York Mets

-- Francisco Alvarez's playing time is trending up. After starting just four of the first 11 games after his recall, Alvarez has been behind the plate in seven of the last 11 contests. His production has been ticking up over that stretch, too, with a .320 average and one home run. Alvarez had a big go-ahead, two-run double Monday to help the Mets split a doubleheader against Atlanta. It's admittedly a very small sample size, but Alvarez has also graded out pretty well defensively, particularly from a framing perspective.

-- Brett Baty has started all nine games versus righties since being recalled. He's garnered just one start in four contests against lefties over that stretch, although that did come the last time the Mets went up against a southpaw. Baty socked his first major-league home run against a lefty on Monday, taking reliever Dylan Lee deep.

Philadelphia Phillies

-- When Darick Hall (thumb) joined Rhys Hoskins (knee) on the shelf, manager Rob Thomson said that Kody Clemens would become his regular first baseman against right-handers. That didn't last long. Clemens is still playing some, but 13 of Alec Bohm's last 16 starts have been at first base, and nine of those have come versus righties. Not only does Bohm at first and Edmundo Sosa at third base improve the Phillies' defense, but Sosa has also been a viable threat at the plate. Sosa entered play Monday hitting .333/.351/.611 with two home runs and one stolen base across his last 11 games and on the season boasts a robust 19.5 percent barrel rate. He has a .900 OPS since joining the Phillies at last year's trade deadline, as he and hitting coach Kevin Long seem to have clicked.

-- Speaking of clicking with Long, Brandon Marsh has altered his batting stance since joining the Phillies, crouching down more at the plate and also ditching a toe-tap. He was good in the second half with the Phils last year but so far in 2023 has been one of the best hitters in baseball. It has meant a move up from the nine spot, where he normally hit in 2022, to all the way up to the five hole in 2023 versus right-handed pitching. Each of his last 14 starts against righties have come out of the fifth spot in the batting order.

-- Marsh's move up in the order has been part of a shuffling Thomson has done with his top six lineup spots. Bryson Stott has moved up to leadoff, with Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber shifting down a spot and Nick Castellanos moving up to cleanup. The biggest loser has been J.T. Realmuto, who began the season hitting third and now is batting sixth. More shuffling is imminent with Bryce Harper (elbow) slated to make his season debut Tuesday. Stott has cooled off a bit of late, which makes me wonder whether he'll drop back down in the order.

Washington Nationals

-- Alex Call began the season starting only against lefties and doing so from the bottom half of the Nats' lineup. He's now starting against everyone and is doing so out of the leadoff spot. It makes sense because Call's on-base skills are his best offensive asset and his strong outfield defense has also helped him establish himself as a fixture in the lineup. Perhaps he'll lose some playing time when Corey Dickerson (hamstring) returns, but he really shouldn't. Call's fantasy prospects are fairly tepid even from the leadoff spot. He's scored just five runs over his last 16 tilts as the table setter in a bad lineup.

-- Situated right behind Call in the Nats' lineup versus righties of late has been Luis Garcia. Garcia's numbers to this point have been pretty poor and he's not hitting the ball hard or getting it in the air. Where he has excelled is with a microscopic eight percent strikeout rate, due in large part to his chase rate going from the third percentile in 2022 up to the 66th percentile in 2023.

Chicago Cubs

-- Manager David Ross has stuck with Eric Hosmer, giving him starts in 21 of 28 games, which includes all 18 times the Cubs have faced a right-hander. You've got to wonder how long it can continue, though. Hosmer is showing no signs of being a viable regular and the Cubs are only paying him the league minimum. Meanwhile, Matt Mervis is crushing the ball again at Triple-A Iowa.

-- In happier news, Cody Bellinger to this point is making good on the Cubs' one-year investment in him. The former NL MVP is sitting on a .295/.373/.589 slash line and has banged out four homers over his last eight contests. The expected stats say he's been pretty lucky, but even those numbers are a massive step up from what we've seen the last couple seasons.

-- Patrick Wisdom has rarely hit higher than sixth even as he sits on 10 home runs and a .942 OPS. That seems unlikely to change, as Ross has been pretty static with the top five in his batting order against righties ever since Seiya Suzuki returned.

Cincinnati Reds

-- The Reds have faced three straight lefties and Jake Fraley has been on the bench each time. He's made just one start against a southpaw this season. He's also been sliding down in the batting order when he does play, with each of his last three starts coming in the five hole after he was the team's regular No. 3 hitter versus righties to begin the year.

-- Ascending in the lineup has been Spencer Steer. He began the season in the lower third of the batting order against righties, but he's started each of the last 11 games and not hit lower than third in any of them. Unfortunately, the timing hasn't been great, as Steer has cooled off since moving up in the lineup.

-- Also of note is that each of Steer's last four starts in the field have come at first base. That's because Nick Senzel has been seeing plenty of action at third base in addition to center field. Senzel won NL Player of the Week honors last week and carried that over into Monday with a three-hit night which included a home run. Senzel has never hit the ball all that hard and is doing so even less often in 2023,  but an 18 percent strikeout rate and 11.5 percent walk rate will play.

Milwaukee Brewers

-- The Brewers have faced an inordinate number of lefties lately, but manager Craig Counsell has kept the hot-hitting Rowdy Tellez in there for two of the last three games versus southpaws. Tellez boasts a 1.076 OPS with six home runs and 15 RBI over his last 15 games.

-- Brice Turang hasn't been so lucky, having been benched each of the last three games against left-handers. Turang has done very little at the plate since a nice first few games and his strikeout rate – which was never an issue in the minors – has climbed to 30 percent following a slew of whiffs over the last two weeks. Luis Urias (hamstring) is still a ways off, which should buy Turang some time. But some tough decisions will have to be made if he's still struggling in a month.

-- Joey Wiemer has moved over to center field since Garrett Mitchell (shoulder) went down and Brian Anderson has been seeing most of his starts in right field. Tyrone Taylor (elbow) is due back Tuesday, though, which could mean Anderson moving back to the dirt.

Pittsburgh Pirates

-- Connor Joe has played a bigger role than expected for the surprising Pirates as the season has gone along. After starting just five of the first 12 games, Joe has been out of the lineup only twice in the last 18 tilts. Most of those starts have come in right field, but Joe has also played plenty of left field and first base.

-- Miguel Andujar is getting another look following a hot start at Triple-A Indianapolis, and has gone 4-for-8 with a pair of home runs in his first three games with the big club. He's still just 28, but the prospect shine with Andujar has long since worn off and it's difficult to envision him making a big impact at this point, especially since he plays the same positions as Joe.

-- I understand the Pirates not wanting to rock the boat following their red-hot start, but it would be nice to see Jack Suwinski moved up in the batting order. He hasn't hit higher than fifth all season even as he's posted a 1.011 OPS with six home runs and five stolen bases. Suwinski's strikeout issues and problems against lefties cap his ceiling, but his Statcast page is lit up like a Christmas tree and he's just 24.

St. Louis Cardinals

-- The Cardinals made the surprising decision to demote Jordan Walker last week, which was a reflection of Walker trailing off at the plate and needing to work on his defense, but also the team wanting to streamline its bevy of outfield options. Surprisingly, it's been Alec Burleson leading the team in outfield starts, although perhaps that wouldn't be the case had Lars Nootbaar not spent some time on the injured list. Burleson had been cemented into the No. 2 spot in the batting order for the first three-plus weeks but lately has been hitting fifth or sixth.

-- Burleson has basically flip-flopped lineup spots with Nolan Gorman, with Gorman moving up from sixth to third as Paul Goldschmidt scoots up to the two hole. Gorman has earned the promotion with a red-hot start, which has seen him not only hitting the ball with authority but also showing a vastly improved approach.

-- Brendan Donovan has seen his stock drop in going from the club's regular leadoff hitter to mostly batting eighth of late. Nootbaar has been elevated to the leadoff spot and, with his on-base percentage hovering over .400, he figures to remain at the top of the order for a while.

Arizona Diamondbacks

-- Finally, we've seen Corbin Carroll move up in the Diamondbacks' lineup. The wunderkind began the season batting fifth versus righties and sixth versus lefties, but over the last two weeks he's been up in the third hole against right-handers. Carroll has matched the hype, posting a .910 OPS with four homers and 10 stolen bases in his first 28 games. He's still batting sixth versus southpaws, but considering he's batting .379/.400/.500 against them so far, that shouldn't continue.

-- Carroll has flip-flopped spots against righties with Lourdes Gurriel, who has slid down to the five spot (he's retained the three hole versus lefties). The precipitous power drop Gurriel experienced in 2022 has unfortunately carried over into 2023, as he has managed just one dinger in his first 26 contests. Gurriel is hitting the ball reasonably hard and his launch angle is right in line with career norms, so I think we could see an uptick in the home run output eventually.

-- It's been a strict platoon at shortstop between Geraldo Perdomo and Nick Ahmed, with the former emerging as the guy against righties. We've even seen Perdomo used in the top two lineup spots a bit lately. That's what happens when you bat .383/.456/.617 in your first 22 games. Perdomo looks like an obvious sell-high candidate to me, though, given his woeful quality of contact numbers.

Colorado Rockies

-- Ryan McMahon initially shifted over to second base when Brendan Rodgers (shoulder) went down, but that plan has been abandoned with Elehuris Montero not able to hack it defensively at third base. Montero has been sent down and McMahon has been re-installed at the hot corner. McMahon's spot in the batting order has bounced around seemingly at random between third and sixth.

-- Elias Diaz began the season batting seventh, but his hot start has meant a move up to fifth. While he's certainly not going to continue at this pace, Diaz should be able to serve as a viable second fantasy catcher.

-- Randal Grichuk has started both games since returning from the injured list, once in left field and once in center. He figures to be manager Bud Black's primary option in center and should be a solid power source and decent fifth fantasy outfielder even if he remains in the bottom-half of the batting order.

Los Angeles Dodgers

-- Mookie Betts, shortstop? We knew coming into the season that Betts would play some second base, but half of his last eight starts have come at shortstop. That included a start there Monday even after Miguel Rojas returned from the injured list. Right field still figures to be Betts' primary position, but he will gain second base and shortstop eligibility if he hasn't already done so.

-- After playing sparingly the first two weeks of the season, Jason Heyward has started 11 of the last 12 games against right-handers. He's even moved up in the lineup, mostly batting either third or fifth over that stretch. Heyward's hot start looks legitimate, too, considering his hard-hit rate ranks in the 99th percentile. It's been pretty stunning.

-- His hot start has meant James Outman moving up in the lineup some of late and also starts in five of eight games against left-handers. Unfortunately, the rookie has been in a rut lately, going 3-for-20 with a whopping 14 strikeouts in his last six contests. Strikeouts have been an issue for Outman in the minors, and while I don't know that he's necessarily a sell-high candidate, he was due for a slump and batting average correction.

San Diego Padres

-- Manny Machado's "demotion" to the five spot in the lineup lasted all of one game. He homered in that contest and then went deep twice in the game after sliding up to the two spot. Machado's strikeouts have been up and his quality of contact has been down so far in 2023, but I have a hard time getting worried about him. He'll be fine.

-- Nelson Cruz has received the occasional start versus right-handed pitching, but for the most part manager Bob Melvin has stuck with a pretty strict platoon between Cruz and Matt Carpenter at designated hitter. Carpenter is heating up, going 9-for-20 with two homers, three walks and 10 RBI across his last eight games.

San Francisco Giants

-- Manager Gabe Kapler has shown plenty of faith in LaMonte Wade after last year's disappointment, starting him in the leadoff spot in every game versus right-handers so far this season. Wade has rewarded him with six home runs – including four over his last five tilts – and more walks than strikeouts. He's even played some against lefties lately.

-- Batting second behind Wade against righties and sometimes in the leadoff spot versus lefties has been Thairo Estrada. Estrada's expected stats point to regression and I do think he's a sell high if someone in your league thinks he's taken a big step forward.

-- Mitch Haniger's return to action has meant Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis scooting down in the lineup. Conforto, in particular, has struggled since a nice first week, putting up a .489 OPS and 33 percent strikeout rate over his last 15 games. Conforto is hitting the ball hard and drawing his walks, so I suspect he'll be fine if he can stay healthy.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Boyer
Ryan has been writing about fantasy baseball since 2005 for Fanball, Rotoworld, Baseball Prospectus and RotoWire.
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