Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Spring is in the air, and so are the baseballs.  That's right, it's the return of another season of the Minor League Barometer.  For those tuning in for the first time, or anyone needing a refresher, this article will give a weekly snapshot of the minor league baseball scene, providing statistics and analysis on those prospects helping or hurting their respective causes.  This is not meant to be a ranking of prospects, and with limited space available it is impossible to mention every neophyte making headlines in a given week.  That being said, comments and questions are encouraged as we explore the vast landscape of the minor league system together.

Now who's ready for some overreactions to small sample sizes?  Below is a way-too-early glimpse at some prospects making waves as we begin the 2019 campaign.

UPGRADE

Vidal Brujan, 2B, TB – The Rays have a stacked farm system, with Wander Franco leaving scouts gushing as the surefire top phenom in the organization.  That being said, it would be foolish to forget about Brujan, who had a breakout 2018 season between Low-A and High-A.  Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 with nine home runs, 53 RBI and 55 steals in 122 games between both levels.  Those numbers don't show that he actually performed better in 27 games at High-A following the promotion.  Perhaps most impressively, Brujan had nearly as many walks (63) as strikeouts (68).  The switch-hitter has an excellent handle of the bat, and the bump in power was also noticeable.  Brujan boasts blazing speed, the ability to make consistent contact and perhaps even more pop than expected.  He has started off 2019 going 8-for-18 with four RBI and two steals for High-A Charlotte on Thursday, and could force his way to Double-A before long.  If all goes right for the Rays, Brujan and the aforementioned Franco will form a dynamic double play duo up the middle for years to come.

Casey Mize, P, DET – Unsurprisingly, the polished Mize dominated his first start at High-A Lakeland on Thursday.  The former Auburn Tiger fanned eight batters in five shutout innings, allowing one measly hit and no walks.  Mize has an exceptional fastball-slider-splitter combo, and arguably ranks as the top pitching prospect in a Detroit system that has seen somewhat of a resurrection of late (Matt Manning, Daz Cameron, Alex Faedo and Isaac Paredes are all names to know in the Tigers organization).  Mize could be fast-tracked if he continues to shine, as his combination of size, stuff and control makes him a potential rotation anchor as early as 2020.

Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU – Alvarez blasted three home runs in a single game Saturday for Triple-A Round Rock, then followed that with another dinger Sunday.  That gives the 21-year-old outfielder four home runs in four games to open the 2019 campaign.  The slugger was already one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball after clubbing 20 home runs across two levels in 2018, and he could only be scratching the surface in terms of his power potential at 6'5", 225.  Alvarez has also shown stellar plate discipline during his brief time in the minors, and he is also able to hit for average.  The Astros outfield is a bit crowded, including Kyle Tucker in the same outfield in Triple-A.  However, if the injury-prone Michael Brantley gets hurt or Josh Reddick falters, Alvarez could still step into some big-league at-bats by the summer.

Dustin May, P, LAD – The top pitching prospect for the Dodgers, May sparkled in his season debut last Thursday for Double-A Tulsa.  The 21-year-old righty allowed just two hits over five scoreless innings, while walking one batter and fanning nine.  May gets a bevy of ground balls with his heater, but the development of the lanky phenom's secondary offerings will go a long way towards determining his future path.  Assuming his curveball and cutter continue to improve and he maintains the control he showed at High-A to begin the 2018 campaign, May has plenty of upside in the Dodger organization.

CHECK STATUS

Enyel De Los Santos, P, PHI – The Phillies traded their top pitching prospect in the form of Sixto Sanchez to the Marlins in order to get J.T. Realmuto, but there are plenty of other options down on the farm.  De Los Santos is a former Padres farmhand who was dealt at the end of 2017 to the Phillies.  He bounced back and forth between Triple-A and the majors last season, though has not yet exhausted his prospect status.  The 23-year-old righty battled some control issues a season ago, but looked the part of a frontline starter in his season debut Saturday by fanning 10 batters and only allowing one run on four hits while failing to issue a walk in a five-inning victory.  Adonis Medina, Francisco Morales and Spencer Howard are more highly thought of in the Phillies system, but none of those hurlers are as close to the big leagues as De Los Santos.  If Nick Pivetta continues to struggle, De Los Santos could get a look rather soon - although JoJo Romero could also figure into the mix.

Clarke Schmidt, P, NYY – The Yanks boast a few high upside arms, but for some reason Schmidt isn't usually mentioned among this group.  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact he underwent Tommy John surgery two months before he was drafted.  His lack of notoriety may be about to change, though.  Schmidt tossed five no-hit innings Thursday for High-A Tampa.  He did not walk a batter and punched out nine.  He has a superb, sinking fastball and a potential wipeout slider, along with an emerging changeup and serviceable curveball.  If he can locate and command that four-pitch mix, he will show the Yankees and the rest of baseball why he was still a first round pick in the 2017 draft.

Cal Stevenson, OF, TOR – The Blue Jays are stocked in terms of hitters down on the farm, and that goes much further than just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.  Rowdy Tellez and Danny Jansen are already on the big-league roster, and Cavan Biggio could be joining them soon.  Stevenson is a more under-the-radar prospect that could turn heads in 2019.  A 10th-round pick in last year's draft out of Arizona, Stevenson tormented the Rookie League in 59 games, slashing .369/.511/.523 with just 24 strikeouts compared to 64 walks.  Yes, you read that correctly.  He also stole 21 bags and was caught just once.  Stevenson perhaps received an aggressive promotion to High-A to begin the 2019 campaign, and promptly smashed a home run in the season opener Thursday.  Power and plate discipline are supposed to be the calling cards for Stevenson, but he could skyrocket up the ranks if he also develops a power stroke.

Cristian Pache, OF, ATL – Pache ripped it up during the spring, slashing .359/.390/.641 with two home runs, 10 RBI and two steals before being sent to Double-A.  Nevertheless, Pache is a player who may have more real life value than fantasy utility, though that could change if he learned to use his standout speed more on the basepaths.  He is a superior fielder, and at just 20, that is the biggest reason as to why he is already at Double-A.  That being said, he hasn't batted below .260 at any level since entering the minors in 2016.  His power stroke is improving (nine home runs in 2018), but he managed only seven steals last year and was caught eight times.  He's already swiped three bags in four games this year, and Pache may end up providing usefulness in the fantasy realm if he continues to develop his thievery with stolen bases a rare commodity.  Can he end up as a double-digit power-speed guy?  That is the ultimate question.

DOWNGRADE

Jesus Luzardo, P, OAK – One of the biggest risers of the 2018 season starts off the 2019 campaign on a downer.  Luzardo had been vying for a rotation spot and was having an impressive spring showing, fanning 15 batters in 9.2 innings - allowing six hits and one earned run over that span.  Unfortunately, he succumbed to a strained rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.  A recipient of Tommy John surgery in 2016, Luzardo won't start throwing again until the end of the month at the earliest, and the Athletics may choose to be cautious with their top prospect.  Luzardo posted a 2.88 ERA and 129:30 K:BB in 109.1 innings across three levels last year.  However, due to the injury and having only four Triple-A starts under his belt in 2018, it would not be surprising to see the 21-year-old southpaw sent to the minors even if he does return to health in short order.

Victor Victor Mesa, OF, MIA – Small sample size alert!  Mesa is hitless through his first three games with High-A Jupiter.  This is considered a conservative assignment for the Cuban outfielder, who some thought would begin the season in Double-A.  The 22-year-old has been compared to Victor Robles of the Washington Nationals, possessing exceptional speed, respectable power and a supposed keen ability to handle the bat.  Of course, he is all projection until we see a body of work in the minor leagues.  He owns the raw tools to succeed, but there could be an adjustment period for Victor Victor, and the Marlins are certain to be cautious after shelling out a $5.25 million bonus - the largest in the 2018 international signing class.

Jazz Chisholm, SS, ARI – Sound the alarm!  Chisholm, one of the top prospects in the Arizona system, has also failed to record a hit in his first three games with Double-A Jackson and has already fanned six times over that span.  The talented middle infielder hit 25 home runs between Low-A and High-A in 2018, while also swiping 17 bags.  Double-A will be a much better test for his future prospects, as Chisholm showed some plate discipline concerns having struck out 149 times in 112 games last year while drawing just 39 walks.  The inability to make consistent contact could come back to bite him at the higher levels.  A slow start may not be so surprising in this instance.

Heliot Ramos, OF, SF – Ramos is still a teenager, and we may not know what his future path holds for at least another year, if not longer.  He was one of the youngest players at Low-A in 2018, so predictably he struggled to make contact at times, and his control of the strike zone was a tad lackluster.  He still hit 11 home runs and swiped eight bags, but it appears he will end up being more of a power prospect than a stolen base threat as he continues to fill out.  He's toolsy but not a mammoth specimen, so it remains to be seen just how potent his power bat will be as he ends up playing one of the corner outfield slots.  Ramos is off to a sluggish start at High-A as well to begin the 2019 season with just one hit in his first 11 at-bats.  Overall, Ramos may not project to have the huge power-speed combo which made him a first-rounder in 2017, which certainly dims his prospect star a bit.