Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The New York Yankees reportedly do not want to give up Clint Frazier in a deal for a pitcher that will bolster their rotation for the remainder of the season.  Could the Yankees get a trade done without the inclusion of Frazier?  The Bronx Bombers certainly appear to have some high upside phenoms other than Frazier.  Starting pitcher Deivi Garcia fanned 15 batters in six innings in his last start for Double-A Trenton.  It was the fourth time in nine starts the diminutive righty struck out double-digit batters in a game.  Garcia's notched 67 strikeouts in just 42 innings, and opposing batters are hitting a putrid .188 against.  Meanwhile, 21-year-old righty Luis Gil has been brought along slowly but is having a breakout campaign at Low-A Charleston with a 1.82 ERA and 81:27 K:BB in only 59.2 innings.  Add in top prospect and centerfielder Estevan Florial, who has returned from injury, and the Yankees could have enough enticing young players other than Frazier to get a deal done for a pitcher down the line.

Let's take a look at some prospects making headlines in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Jo Adell, OF, LAA – Adell has been a monster since getting to Double-A.  After missing nearly the first two months of the season, he's returned with a bang and cemented his status as one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball.  In 16 games at this level, Adell is batting .397 with three home runs, 10 RBI and four stolen bases.  That intriguing combination of power and speed could make him a future fantasy star.  Of course, Mike Trout will man centerfield for the Halos for the foreseeable future, meaning Adell will likely end up sliding over to one of the corner outfield positions.  Nevertheless, Adell and Trout at the top of the future lineup for the Angels could be an absolute nightmare for opposing pitchers.

Shane McClanahan, P, TB – The Rays essentially started the "opener" craze, but have quietly stocked up their farm system with high-upside rotation arms.  The injured Brent Honeywell, along with Brendan McKay and Matthew Liberatore are considered elite arms and round out the top three hurlers in the Rays minor league ranks.  However, Shane Baz and McClanahan are also enjoying excellent 2019 campaigns.  The South Florida southpaw McClanahan excelled at Low-A to begin the year, posting a 3.40 ERA and 74:31 K:BB in 53 innings.  And he's improved since being bumped up to High-A by tossing two scoreless starts over 11.2 innings helped by a 17:2 K:BB.  A recipient of Tommy John surgery, McClanahan possesses a blazing fastball, plus changeup and emerging slider.  If he can maintain his command, he could be a huge riser in the prospect rankings.

Terrin Vavra, SS/2B, COL – Another hitting prospect for the Rockies?  You don't say!  Vavra is a 22-year-old shortstop who was picked in the third round of last year's draft out of the University of Minnesota.  He has two brothers who played in the Twins organization, but never made it to the big leagues.  But Terrin has more upside than either of his two older brothers combined.  The polished college product is overwhelming the competition at Low-A, slashing .328/.408/.522 with eight home runs, 39 RBI and 11 steals in 68 games.  The lefty hitter controls the strike zone, has surprisingly more power than expected, and his baseball IQ allows him to steal more bases than his speed alone would let on.  Vavra's stock appears to be trending upward, and a promotion to High-A should come shortly.

Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN – A first round pick in last year's draft, Larnach has outperformed High-A teammate and 2017 first-rounder Royce Lewis by batting .317/.384/.477 with five home runs, 37 RBI and three steals through 69 games at this level.  Granted, Larnach is more than two years older than Lewis and also benefited from playing college baseball.  His hit tool remains his greatest asset and while his home run figure may appear slightly low, Larnach also has registered 25 doubles on the year while the Florida State League depresses runs - and home runs, in particular.  He's recently surged by hitting .368 over his last 10 contests.  Larnach has the chance to become a .300 hitter in the big leagues with home run power, and comes in at 6-foot-4, 225.  The aforementioned Lewis may have more upside, but Larnach may beat him to the Majors.

CHECK STATUS

Dean Kremer, P, BAL – The Orioles farm is suddenly stocked with pitching talent.  Baltimore certainly hopes these prospects pan out better than Dylan Bundy or Daniel Cabrera.  DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez lead the pack, followed by Michael Baumann, Drew Rom and Blaine Knight.  Kremer can be lumped into that latter group, and the 23-year-old righty has already exceeded expectations.  A 14th round pick in the 2016 draft by the Dodgers, Kremer came over last year as part of the Manny Machado trade.  He showed elite-level strikeout stuff in 2018, fanning 178 batters in just 131.1 innings between High-A and Double-A.  After missing the first month of the 2019 campaign due to an oblique injury, Kremer has continued to flash by striking out 38 batters in 33.2 innings for Double-A Bowie.  He does have the penchant for occasional wildness, allowing five home runs in six starts this season.  That being said, he's impressed with a 25:3 K:BB over his last 18 innings, and Kremer looks more and more a part of Baltimore's future plans with each passing start.

Jackson Kowar, P, KC – The 22-year-old Kowar recently received a promotion to Double-A after a solid, albeit unspectacular stint at High-A Wilmington.  He posted a 3.53 ERA and 66:22 K:BB in 74 innings, with pposing batters hitting .245 against.  The former University of Florida hurler sparkled in his Double-A debut, tossing seven scoreless innings, scattering six hits, walking two batters while striking out seven.  However, Kowar looks more the part of a back-end starter as opposed to a frontline rotation anchor.  He throws hard and has a nice changeup to boot, but his curveball still lags behind and he could even end up in the bullpen.  It must be pointed out he was only drafted last year and he does keep the ball down, which should help his cause as he ascends to the higher levels.  Kowar is a decent prospect but lacks the upside of some other minor league hurlers.

Trent Grisham, OF, MIL – Grisham represents a largely forgotten former first-round pick who is still just 22.  He has struggled to hit for average at the lower levels, but he did steal 38 bases in 2017 at High-A, and bashed 13 home runs in 63 games at Double-A earlier this year before being promoted.  Following the promotion, Grisham has homered in each of his first two games at Triple-A.  The toolsy outfielder is also not afraid to take a walk.  He walked a staggering 98 times in 2017, and has posted almost as many walks (46) as strikeouts (51) in 2019.  If he can even hit above .250 as he did at Double-A earlier this season, Grisham could become an intriguing fantasy prospect given his sudden power surge along with the ability to swipe a bag.  But his newfound power must prove legitimate as well.

Nate Pearson, P, TOR – Pearson has emerged as an elite pitcher, but once again finds himself on the Injured List.  Already having battled oblique issues along with a broken arm suffered last year, he's currently sidelined with an undisclosed ailment.  The hope clearly is that the injury is not serious, as Pearson has found little resistance on the mound in 2019.  Between High-A and Double-A, the 22-year-old righty has a 1.89 ERA and 66:8 K:BB in 47.2 innings.  Despite being drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft, Pearson has only managed 69.1 professional innings on his resume due to a variety of injuries.  He boasts superior stuff, but he must prove he can stay on the field.

DOWNGRADE

Travis Swaggerty, OF, PIT – Swaggerty has suffered a dismal 2019 campaign, his first full year in the minors in the Pirates organization.  A first-round selection out of South Alabama in 2018, Swaggerty is slashing just .218/.316/.319 through 65 games for High-A Bradenton.  He's regressed further recently, hitting only .162 with 17 strikeouts over his last 10 contests.  Swaggerty has been unable to hit for average, but he hasn't even been able to compensate with additional power and has only chipped in with 13 extra-base hits in 248 at-bats.  He does have 13 stolen bases, but the low average has taken away some of his base stealing opportunities.  It's safe to say Swaggerty's adjustment to the minors has been difficult thus far.

Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM – Considered one of the best prospects for the Mets heading into the season, Vientos has largely struggled.  The 19-year-old is supposed to be a power prospect, but he's hit only six home runs in 62 games for Low-A Columbia.  Vientos was supposed to be patient at the dish, but has 13 walks compared to 60 strikeouts.  And his On-Base Percentage of .298, will simply not cut it.  He is still just a teenager with plenty of time to right the ship, but the Mets gave him two years worth of at-bats in the Short-Season Leagues, and he still looks rough around the edges.  The upside remains for Vientos, but he's got a lot of work to do.

Lazaro Armenteros, OF, OAK – The 20-year-old outfielder from Cuba has been a strikeout victim all too often in 2019.  Armenteros has been punched out a staggering 120 times in just 66 games.  Perhaps not surprisingly, he is batting .226 over that stretch.  Armenteros does have 11 home runs to his credit but just one over the last 10 games, during which time he's hit a putrid .150 with 24 strikeouts.  He has swiped eight stolen bases, so he is not devoid of speed by any stretch of the imagination - but the strikeout numbers are simply too high.  Armenteros needs to work on making more consistent contact before being considered a higher-tier outfield phenom.

Justus Sheffield, P, SEA – Sheffield was supposed to be the prize in the James Paxton deal, and also supposedly nearly ready for a starting role with the big club.  After all, he made 15 starts at Triple-A while with the Yankees organization in 2018, and even appeared in relief in a couple of games down the stretch just to get his feet wet.  Still, Sheffield started off 2019 in Triple-A with the feeling he would soon be called upon.  Not only has that not materialized, but he actually was recently demoted to Double-A.  Sheffield was a train wreck in Triple-A, posting a 6.87 ERA and issuing almost as many walks (41) as strikeouts (48).  He was also troubled by the long ball, surrendered 12 home runs in 13 outings.  Sheffield has tossed two stellar games since the demotion, but it is clear his stock has taken a hit.  Many pundits believed he was eventually ticketed for a bullpen role even prior to this year.  While the M's are not ready to give up on him in the starting rotation just yet, the bullpen may be where Sheffield ends up anyway.