MLB Barometer: Brave New World

Some quick thoughts and commentary around the infield:

Catchers

•Jonathan Lucroy is having a slow April; meanwhile, backup Robinson Chirinos has started three of the last five games and smashed two home runs in Friday's start. The balance of power will inevitably shift back to near-everyday at-bats for Lucroy sometime before the end of the month.

•Austin Hedges is on fire right now, tied for the league lead among catchers with five homers, though he also has a .175 BA. Hedges popped 21 long balls in 82 games at Triple-A last season after hitting just eight in the minors in 2015. He's a very good defensive catcher who's maturing as a hitter before our eyes.

• That Jett Bandy-Manny Pina combo is simply unreal through the first three weeks, as they're hitting .379 combined. I feel bad for Andrew Susac, who – despite being the most pedigreed prospect of the trio – started the season on the outside looking in due to his early DL stint. You have to keep starting whichever Brewer backstop you own in two-catcher leagues even if he's not playing every day.

• I'm sticking with my story from two weeks ago that JT. .Realmuto is going to make a run at being the No. 1 catcher this year. My only worry is that he won't hit more than 15 homers, but a .325 average and 15 steals will certainly balance that out. His performance to date should be enough for Buster Posey to get into his rhythm and show Realmuto that the veteran is still the real king of catchers.

• It's coming: Yasmani Grandal is going to start hitting lots and lots of bombs. I rostered him in DFS on Saturday, then took the day off Sunday, when he actually did hit one out. But wait until after this four-game stretch at AT&T Park.

First Basemen

• It's hard to imagine heading into 2018's drafts with Freddie Freeman not being part of the first-round crew. He's the next Miggy (but more like an annual .300 average instead of Miggy's .320). Freeman is hitting .400 and near the top of every roto category. He may have a minor slump here and there, but I believe he's on his way to a monster season of 40 homers, 10 steals and 115 runs. Unfortunately, RBI will be his most disappointing category unless the Braves trade for formidable on-base machine to hit ahead of him. Dansby Swanson has been moved down the order, while Adonis Garcia doesn't deserve the privilege of hitting second ahead of King Freeman. Fix this, Atlanta.

• No surprise, but Paul Goldschmidt leads all first basemen in steals. It's something I was worried about when Torey Lovullo was named manager, but he appears to be giving his guys the green light. I believe Goldy is going to go on a crazy homer binge this season and flirt with his career-high 36 from 2013.

•Edwin Encarnacion took his sweet time to adjust to his new team, but he crushed two bombs last week and is settling in as a top-five option at first base again.

•Yonder Alonso looks like a new guy entirely from the low-power, line drive hitter he used to be. We're seeing a higher launch angle with his hits, and he's never had a problem providing decent average. He's a sneaky fill-in option for fantasy owners hit by the injury to Miguel Cabrera.

• Yes, I'm worried what Mike Scioscia will do to C.J. Cron's at-bats once Luis Valbuena returns. Cron is finally playing every day and getting into a rhythm despite not connecting yet. He should pick up the pace, though. Scioscia really needs to get over the fact that Cron helped Mrs. Scioscia carry her heavy bag that time. He was just being friendly – he wasn't hitting on her. Sorry, I don't actually know what Cron did to Scioscia, but his lack of consistency in the lineup almost seems personal.

Second Basemen

• Despite how horrible Ryan Schimpf has been at making contact (.109 BA), he's fourth in baseball with a 20.8 percent walk rate. Unfortunately, most fantasy leagues don't offer points for that.

•Brandon Drury has zero homers on the season, but a surge is coming. Not that he's going to replicate last season, but it's worth noting he hit four homers in a six-game stretch last April that put him on the map, then delivered another four-homer barrage in a five-game span in September.

• The stolen-base crown among second basemen should be a two-Jose competition between Jose Altuve and Jose Peraza, who have seven and six, respectively. But wait, don't Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar play second? Nevermind, it's a four-man race.

•Rougned Odor had an ice-cold week and has been swinging at crap out of the zone. He's under the Mendoza line now after a hot start. Nothing like some home cookin' (six at home) to bolster the appetite.

•Adam Frazier hasn't done much this year and is currently still under the radar. I promise that he'll stand out soon, perhaps in next week's four-game series in Cincy.

Third Basemen

• The two best hitters at the hot corner so far are Jake Lamb and Jose Ramirez, and I'm heavily invested in both. Lamb still can't hit lefties, but he looks like a perennial All-Star against right-handed pitching and hits fourth in a powerful lineup. Ramirez was one of baseball's most improved all-around hitters last season and gets to hit in fifth in the Indians' lineup. Expect both him and Lamb to turn their hot starts into big campaigns.

• As we noticed during draft season, this position is loaded to the brim, so many smart fantasy owners got two or three third basemen so they could rotate a couple at CI. Travis Shaw, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Sano are off to excellent starts in the counting categories despite subpar batting averages, but none of that should surprise you. However, young studs like Ryon Healy and Alex Bregman have yet to get it going. We're a "what have you done for me lately" community, and though I targeted and love Shaw this season, I'd trade him for Bregman in a heartbeat.

• Speaking of Castellanos, he leads the world in hard-hit rate (61 percent).

•Anthony Rendon has a .033 ISO with no homers and four RBI. Are you really worried? Nothing is different with him today. He had no homers and just one RBI through all of April 2016, then ended up with 20 homers and 84 RBI over the next five months.

Shortstops

• With all due respect to Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story, this position will be a down-to-the-wire race for supremacy between Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor – three of baseball's best hitters already. Each of them has a legitimate chance to hit .300 with 25-plus homers and 100-plus RBI and runs – Bogaerts will fall short of that in power, Story in average.

• Guess who's nestled in as No. 2 hard-hit rate at the position between Seager's 46.9 percent and Lindor's 42.4 percent? It's former first overall pick Tim Beckham of the Rays (42.5), who had a decent third week of the season after a rough first two. Keep an eye on him as a late bloomer. He'd have so much more hype if he was hitting in a park like Chase Field or Camden Yards.

• If you added Taylor Motter, nice work since Jean Segura's return won't hinder his at-bats now that the team has DFA'd Leonys Martin. Motter won't hit three home runs every week, but you can still belt out the chorus to Danzig's "Mother" every time he goes yard.

• If you added Nick Ahmed to your fantasy team this week, do yourself a favor and let someone else take over the team now.

And now, on to our regularly scheduled programming.

RISERS

The most important takeaway from my weekly barometer is that the list should not be skimmed for pickups and drops. A riser listed below is simply a player with a standout week who is being featured. The opposite is the case with the fallers: players who are struggling. Oftentimes, the best pickups (or guys to insert into your lineup) are the guys coming off rough weeks because that's just the way the cookie crumbles. Be sure to read my analysis, then discern the proper course of action.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS

The Zimmerman roto renaissance is off to a booming start and will last until that dreaded DL stint. We hate to jinx anyone, especially if he's on our fantasy teams, but if history has any say, that's nearly inevitable. Zimmerman has spent at least one 15-day stint on the disabled list in each of the last five seasons with a strained hamstring, a strained rib cage, plantar fasciitis, a sore shoulder, a bruised wrist and more. He's 34 years old now, and the injuries are part of the package. Zimmerman's been a solid and patient hitter throughout his career, holding an 18 percent strikeout rate and nine percent walk rate over the last 12 seasons. His best season came all the way back in 2009, the only season that's seen him clear 30 home runs (33) and post triple-digit runs scored (110). He's off to a scorching start along with most of his teammates, hitting .387 with a 1.215 OPS through the first three weeks, including hitting three homers and driving in nine runs last week.

You undoubtedly start him in all formats with Coors on the schedule this week, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider selling high. Perhaps some owners are living far too deeply in the present and might be willing to fork over an ice-cold Eric Hosmer or Jose Abreu for him. If you think I'm nuts, give it a try and see what happens. I picked Zimmerman up on a couple of NFBC teams and am ecstatic with the production, but don't believe the 34-year-old's body will hold up for more than 120 games.

Starlin Castro, 2B, NYY

There will be times this season where Castro will struggle, but it looks like we got a good deal on a guy who was the 25th second baseman drafted on average this spring. Entering his age-27 season, some of us were encouraged by last year's career-high 21 homers, yet he still appeared to be an afterthought in drafts. Castro has been pounding the ball for three weeks now from the middle of the Yankees' lineup. He's in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and hit two three-run bombs last week. Currently hitting .357 with a .400 OBP, Castro's .227 ISO is above the .200 mark for the first time in his career, and it's conceivably that he could remain above that benchmark.

His 30.4 percent hard-hit rate is not much higher than his career average (27.5), but he's hitting the ball the opposite way more than he has in the past (30.4 percent oppo rate this season, 22.0 over the last three). Some say the age-27 power-peak theory is a myth, but there certainly is some credibility to the concept. Castro never had much oomph to his swing, but he's a big guy (6-foot-2, 230 pounds) who could certainly be transforming into a stronger power hitter. What's truly encouraging is a reduction in his strikeout rate from last season (from 19.3 percent to 14.1) and the fact that he's been taking bases on balls more often (seven percent walk rate this year, up from 4.8 over his career).

Though he usually hits in the middle of the lineup, Castro's hit everywhere from second to sixth. Expect new career highs in homers and RBI, with 2012's 78 currently standing as his top mark. His hot start in batting average won't be sustained, but he has a good chance to land in the .280-.290 range.

Aaron Altherr, OF, PHI

Color me bitter. Altherr was my biggest target in Sunday FAAB for my NFBC Main Event squad, and I should have been more aggressive. I desperately needed another outfielder and ended up getting outbid 137 to 129 for someone we saw gain value as the week went by. Altherr started the season on the outside looking in with Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick set to start every day. However, Kendrick getting hurt has opened a full-time spot for Altherr, who ended up having one of the hottest weeks in baseball while hitting second for the Phillies.

He has a seven-game hitting streak and has started every day since last Wednesday, leaving him sitting at .364 with two homers (including one on Sunday) and two steals. Unfortunately, his price tag in FAAB went up incrementally with each solid performance to the point where it was impossible not to take notice.

Kendrick is out for a couple more weeks, so Altherr will have the opportunity to establish himself in the lineup. He did strike out more than 30 percent of the time in his 57 games last season, albeit with strong 10 percent walk rate. Altherr was never a stunning prospect, but he offers some pop to go with helpful contributions in steals and runs. If you're an owner, don't be too discouraged if he scuffles against the Marlins and Dodgers this week, especially if you have high expectations after last week.

Lance Lynn, SP, STL

There was obvious reason for concern with Lynn heading into draft season, and it was reflected in his 275 ADP. However, as we've seen with pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery, time is the great healer. Lynn was 15 months removed from surgery going into spring training, and he was able to open the season healthy. After a solid first start and then his roughest outing to date (four walks and three homers in five innings against Washington), Lynn's turned in a pair of masterful outings (one earned run and a 12:3 K:BB in 13 innings against the Pirates and at the Brewers) while showing increasing longevity.

He's averaged nearly 98 pitches through his first four starts and been hitting 92 mph with his fastball – on par with his 2015 velocity. Though his swinging-strike rate was below average over his first three starts, it was on full display at 15 percent in his latest start against the Brew Crew. Lynn's xFIP of 4.04 points to a bit of good luck involved in his 2.70 ERA, but we're talking about a very small sample here. His next two outings will come at home against the Reds and Brewers, and Lynn has done his best work in front of the St. Louis fans (2.68 home ERA in 2014 and 2015). His strikeout rate will continue to ramp up, but be sure to keep an eye on whether he's making batters miss.

Justin Wilson, RP, DET

With Alex and Justin rocking it in the pen, it's probably been a couple of decades since a Wilson duo has rocked Motown (the Beach Boys' Carl Wilson died in '98). The leash is likely pretty long on veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez, but K-Rod has allowed an earned run in five of his eight appearances and heads into the fourth week of action with a 5.87 ERA. KRod does have six saves, but he's also blown two already. With some closer turmoil apparently settled in Texas (Matt Bush looks like the guy) and some still brewing with the Nats with Dusty Baker keeping us on our toes in the ninth, it pays to at least gander at Detroit and speculatively add Wilson if you have room.

The 22-year-old Joe Jimenez (who was called up on April 10) is considered the heir apparent, but he's raw and inexperienced at the MLB level. Jimenez blew a save Friday night, allowing two earned runs on a homer against the Twins. Alex Wilson has been solid, but Justin (no relation) has been the team's best reliever. He's yet to surrender a run in nine appearances, rocking a 41.4 percent strikeout rate in the small sample.

Matt Modica and I added Wilson to our NFBC Auction Championship two weeks ago and have held on as we hope he emerges as our third closer. There aren't many stabs to take out there with Brandon Kintzler and Brandon Maurer holding their jobs down while Fernando Rodney enjoys a fairly extensive leash. If K-Rod were to lose his gig, we'd most likely see a Wilson-led committee in his place.

Honorable Mentions:

Martin Prado, 3B, MIA – You know the drill with Prado: incredibly valuable against lefties (.452 wOBA against them last year) and should score a boatload of runs when hitting second. But he's not going to help your team's power deficiencies.

Justin Bour, 1B, MIA – Don't expect Bour to help you with batting average, but he has incredible raw power that could lead to 25-plus bombs this year. Bour hit 15 in 90 games last season, and his 30 percent hard-hit rate will improve.

Steven Souza, OF, TAM – An RBI machine, as his 17 rank among the top 10 in the league. Souza's hitting .347 now, but if you think he ends the season higher than .265, you've got a rude awakening heading your way. After all, he has a career 33 percent strikeout rate, and I don't believe he's suddenly figured out how to hit for average.

FALLERS

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY

Bird is currently not the word. He's looked atrocious at the plate, hitting .105 with just one home run. In fact, outside of a 3-for-3 game with a homer on April 16, Bird has just two hits in 42 at-bats. We all know that he missed all of last season with a shoulder injury and apparently saw it recur in the first week of the season. In the second week, Bird dealt with an ankle injury, which was odd because he'd bruised it way back at the end of spring training. Nevertheless, Bird doesn't appear to be at full strength, and he's been moved down in the lineup accordingly, occasionally ceding starts to Chris Carter. We're clearly not dropping Bird in our 15-teamers, but sitting him is certainly the best option until we see some progress. There certainly isn't a shortage of viable CI options.

Alex Gordon, OF, KC

Gordon was a preseason target of mine because he seemed to be going way too late in drafts (320 ADP) for a guy with his track record and the leadoff gig in Kansas City. It's been quite the struggle over the first three weeks, though, as Gordon has gone just 12-for-71 (.169) with no homers and four RBI. He was moved down to the sixth spot for Sunday's game and proceeded to go 0-for-3. Gordon's 20.4 percent hard-hit rate is among the lowest in baseball, and his walk rate -- usually around 10 percent -- has been cut in half. I had no issue dropping Gordon for Michael Conforto in two of my NFBC 12-teamers, knowing that he'll most likely still be available later this season if I feel he's worth a roster spot. Gordon will likely hit 15 homers with a handful of steals, but unless you're in a 15-team league and he's on your bench for now, there's nothing to see here.

Domingo Santana, OF, MIL

Unlike Gordon, Santana's slow start is not very troubling; he's eight years younger, with best days ahead of him. Did you really expect the entire crew of Brewers to be simultaneously crushing it? Everyone gets his turn, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Keon Broxton and Santana turn up the heat soon while teammate Eric Thames cools off. Despite the fact that Santana is currently hitting below the Mendoza Line, it's a very promising sign that cut his strikeout rate to a respectable 23.1 percent. Santana has two homers with two stolen bases so far, and he'll enjoy a nice six-game home week against some tasty Reds and Braves pitching. Expect to see his bat awaken soon.

Carlos Martinez, SP, STL

Something isn't quite right with the Cardinals' ace, as he's been uncharacteristically wild. His 10.6 percent walk rate is troubling from a guy who usually pitches with grace and control. Shockingly, there are 18 starting pitchers with worse rates through three weeks. Two Saturdays ago, C-Mart had that odd outing in which he became the 27th pitcher in MLB history to strike out 11 batters and walk eight – something that the great Nolan Ryan achieved 13 times in his career. On the flip side, Martinez has a wicked 29 percent strikeout rate and hurls unhittable stuff at opposing hitters when he's able to harness his control. Unfortunately, there just isn't any consistency with it. Martinez has said he's just trying to find his rhythm and "get his mechanics down right" while trying to locate his fastball. His heater's velocity is on par with last year, and he's introduced a slider – his second-most-heavily utilized pitch this season – that has held opposing batters to a .133 average. With no injury involved here, the 25-year-old's owners need to continue throwing him out there every week; his stats should normalize in time.