MLB Barometer: Building Around Kershaw

As has been the case for several years running, Clayton Kershaw is the bona fide top option. In fact, Kershaw's ADP has been trending up heavily over the last couple of weeks, to the point where we've seen him go first overall over Mike Trout in high-stakes NFBC leagues. Friends of RotoWire Matt Modica and Chris Vaccaro were lucky enough to net first overall picks at each of their Main Events this weekend in New York. Modica and Vaccaro took Kershaw first overall in Saturday's draft, then intentionally split their draft strategies by taking Trout first overall in the Sunday draft; our very own Chris Liss then gleefully landed Kershaw with the second pick.

For those who build their own projection systems and do their own valuations, Kershaw comes in clearly ahead of the next group (some order of Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner) unless you're expecting less than 200 innings . He's a man oi his own tier, and for those who are targeting him, it certainly didn't help to see Kershaw in midseason form Thursday, already abusing opposing hitters with 11 strikeouts over seven innings in a spring game. Kershaw was taken fifth overall in the $5,000 NFBC Ultimate over the weekend, but for the most part, he's steadily risen among the top three overall. If you're in a position to draft him this weekend, it goes without saying how crucial it is to map out the first few rounds versus what your team would look like if you started with Trout.

There are definitely "Kershaw strategies" in play; the most common one is to pound hitters hard for the next few picks, being mindful of the power bats you'll need (all the while, keeping a top closer in mind as you go). This strategy is fairly elementary, and it's the one that most will employ. A team starting with Kershaw that drafts Jonathan Villar and Francisco Lindor at the second/third-round turn clearly has a power problem right out of the gate. One that grabs Freddie Freeman and Nelson Cruz in those spots is in a much better position power-wise, but will just have to be exceptionally mindful of collecting stolen bases in strategic spots. Of course, one could go straight for Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon after a Kershaw-Freeman-Cruz start. The extreme rabbits do fit better with certain early-round structures; if you've started with three solid power bats and a strong starter in addition to Kershaw, you aren't afraid to nab that early speedster, and you might get one of them well past his ADP. Extreme concentration in steals with someone that early isn't for everyone, but it's certainly an option.

Doubling Down on Kershaw

The other approach is to "double down" on Kershaw with one more ace, but this maneuver is akin to hanging on top of a speeding car that's weaving in and out of traffic. Essentially, you've got very little margin for error. But it could work. You could grab the best bats on the board at the 2/3 turn (picks 30 and 31), then hope that one starting pitcher from your next tier (the Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Martinez group) falls to you at picks 60 and 61.

However, we're playing with fire doing that. In the NFBC Main Event (which is the group of drafters we want to learn from), we can be all but certain – based on the historical popularity of SPs in these drafts – that no pitcher from this group will be available to you at pick 60. In fact, even Masahiro Tanaka (ADP: 84) didn't make it out of the fourth round in an NFBC Main Event this past weekend. There's always a tradeoff with this approach – we're either going to miss out on a closer run or have to settle for late-round power bats with stinky B.O. – er, BA. Remember that in the NFBC, we're swimming with sharks.

Your home (satellite) leagues without overall contests are a whole different animal. You'll still have the guy pushing up James Paxton or Lance McCullers a couple of rounds, but you won't quite see the fury of pitcher runs like we do in the NFBC. And we certainly wouldn't approach those leagues the same way. Depending on your settings and lineup slots, you usually don't have to attack pitching with the same sort of tenacity.

But let's go back to the Kershaw strategy for one more moment. Count me as one of those who sees the strategy of waiting 10 picks to grab your SP2 if you have Kershaw as a mistake. To truly leverage the power of Kershaw and those microscopic ratios for your squad, you need to sneak in another ace at some point to really take control of those categories before the season even begins. You can be a bit more relaxed going after the overpriced/overhyped pitchers and can simply cherry pick in the middle and late rounds with more confidence. And it doesn't need to necessarily come at the expense of your offense. Personally, I'm seeing hitters in the 100-150 range that I prefer over the 50-100 guys this season; I covered many of them in my outfielders piece last week. If you've been diligent with your player and tier studies, you can still piece together a strong offense while having (arguably) your league's best pitching staff. Drafting Kershaw doesn't necessarily mean you get to take a long vacation from drafting starting pitchers.

Risers and Fallers

Slowly getting back into the Barometer format that we're used to from years past, let's take a look at the biggest ADP risers and fallers using March 1 NFBC as a cutoff point. The pre-March 1 data is based on 315 drafts (some of them dating back to fall and winter drafts of 2016), all of them either 12- or 15-team leagues. The post-March 1 data reflects 139 paid NFBC drafts.

Biggest Fallers

Harvey's ADP drop was due to reports of fastball velocity below 90 mph, though he was hitting between 94 and 97 in his latest outing – a result that will likely see huge ADP gains as we head into the final week. Harvey is a popular, yet polarizing SP, but let's not forget that he was a second/third-round pick this time last year. Wainwright has dropped ever so slightly over the last few weeks, especially after getting crushed for 10 earned runs in an inning last week (why they left him out there that long is another story). Urias will start the season in Triple-A; Happ is likely a casualty of all these March risers. There hasn't been anything negative reported about Happ this preseason; in fact, he's looked good this spring. Twenty wins and a 3.18 ERA will be very tough to repeat, but there's no justification for his full-round drop.

Biggest Risers

Morton and Karns have soared into 12-team relevance with good spring reports that included winning rotation spots to start the season. Both have teased us in the past but neither is a spring chicken (Karns is 29 years old, Morton is 33). Karns had an impressive season with the Rays in 2015 (144 IP: 3.67 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate) but struggled with the Mariners in 15 starts and some middle-relief work, ending the season with the sixth-highest walk rate in the majors. Karns will have a great defensive infield behind him, and despite a poor 5.15 ERA last season, his xFIP (4.23) and FIP (4.03) were on par with his 2015 marks. We'll all be shocked if Morton manages to last all season in the rotation, but he's been one of the spring's biggest surprises, showing increased velocity (a consistent 94 mph, up two ticks from last season's average). The guy I dubbed 'Doc Jr.' six years ago following an article I read that likened his mechanics to those of the great Roy Halladay, Morton has failed to live up that hype so far. Nonetheless, both Morton and Karns are worthy late-round fliers.

Perhaps the two most frequently discussed risers this spring are Paxton and McCullers. Health is the major concern with both, but analysts within the industry seem to agree that the two of them are major breakout candidates who easily ought to outearn their draft-day cost if they can stay on the mound for 30 starts. Paxton had a strong second half of 2016, posting a terrific 72:10 K:BB over 72 second-half innings. McCullers has looked sharp this spring as well, and his owners are hoping his elbow concerns are in the rearview, as he owns one of the league's most promising repertoires – a 94 mph fastball, a Kimbrel-esque curve and a split-finger offering with massive drop and wicked movement. McCullers boasted a 30 percent strikeout rate over 81 innings last season. Both are moving up draft boards with a fury, but if given the choice, I'd draft McCullers over Paxton.

The three guys others have more interest in than me are Shelby Miller and the two Cardinals pitchers (Wacha and Lynn). Miller has struggled with control this spring, but he's consistently been between 93 and 95 with his fastballs. He has a 6.46 ERA in 15.1 innings, walking six and striking out 22. I already have reservations about my Diamondbacks rotation roto crushes (Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray), so it's unlikely that I'll end up with Miller in any remaining drafts. I'd rather get my strikeouts elsewhere so that I don't have to deal with the week-to-week inconsistency one may expect with Miller. With Wacha, there's simply always someone who likes him more than me, and I'd rather take a shot with Foltynewicz, Liriano or even Dylan Bundy in his ADP range. Call me stubborn, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Luke Weaver replace Wacha in the rotation before too long. That said, Wacha's leash could be made longer by the fact that Lance Lynn is already suffering setbacks in his road to recovery. Lynn was removed from Monday's game with a "pinch" in his upper back – a injury later downplayed by manager Mike Matheny. Nevertheless, I'd be hesitant to take a chance on Lynn this season despite it nearly being nearly 16 months since his TJ surgery.

If you're entering the NFBC for the first time this season, let me remind you once more about the late-March movement of the aces. It's ever more prominent in the live events, but you should expect to see it in the 12-team Online Championship leagues as well. Jacob deGrom serves as the perfect example. Back in January, Charlie Wiegert ("the Godfather of Fantasy Sports") and I took deGrom 100th overall (seventh round) in the FSTA experts' draft. A little 97 on the heater this spring, and deGrom was up to fourth- and fifth-round status in this format. He's been creeping up into the 40s lately and will likely be gone before the end of the third round of 15-team live (Main Event) drafts this weekend. Whether deGrom is worth the rise is up to you; just note that this type of helium is an annual occurrence among the high-stakes folks. Despite some of the disappointments of early-round aces last season (Cole, Harvey, Felix Hernandez), NFBC regulars are going back to the well and ensuring that their squads are properly equipped with top-end starting pitchers. Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish have seen similar bumps (albeit a lighter ones because they're closer to the top), while another big strikeout arm (Chris Archer) has only seen a minor increase (up to 50 from 52 overall post-March 1). The Cubs duo of Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta remains firmly entrenched in the 30s, and Madison Bumgarner is holding tight as a surefire second-rounder in 12-teamers who's going around the end of the first round in 15-team leagues.

Though your emphasis on starting pitchers depends on your league and its settings, one fact remains the same: They account for half of the standard roto categories and we're always working with fewer starting roster spots, so our margin for error is thinner. I can't stress enough how important it is to be mindful of drafting pitchers with injury histories or spring velocity dips. The last thing you want to do is chase two-start weeks from the Edinson Volquezes and Jeff Lockes of the league.

I wish you all the very best of luck down this final stretch of draft season. Let the games begin!