MLB Barometer: It's a Marathon

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

This is your annual early-April reminder that the season is one long grind and we need not react to the smallest of sample sizes. In case you were wondering, the season is less than four percent underway. As is the case every year around this time, Roto Twitter is rampant with overreaction. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Cabrera have no home runs yet. In fact, Cabrera just barely got his first hit of the season Sunday. Unless Miggy gets hurt, you're not worrying about a guy who has hit under .300 just once in his last 12 seasons.

Being aggressive in free-agent bidding early in the season is important, though not as much as it is in fantasy football. There's a balance that needs to be maintained between not being overly reactionary with dropping fringe players off to slow starts and adding players who may provide long-term value. Unless you came to the draft totally unprepared, had a closer lose his job or were hit with multiple injuries, there's simply no reason to be remodeling your roster after one week of action. In fact, Jeanmar Gomez is the only closer to have lost his job (and we all knew that was inevitable). Outside of Gary Sanchez, there haven't been any major injuries this week -- well, as long as Trea Turner spends the minimum time on the disabled list while the likes of Rich Hill and Garrett Richards come off the DL this weekend as planned.

The biggest mistake 12- and 15-team roto managers make is overreacting to a fringe hitter starting slowly or a pitcher getting bombed in his first start. So many of us want to claim that shiny new toy. There's a big difference between spending 10 percent of your FAAB on guys like Brandon Finnegan and Kendall Graveman (whose metrics last season portended breakouts) and rookie starters in hitter-friendly parks like Amir Garrett and Antonio Senzatela.

Bidding on starting pitchers in 15-teamers is always more straightforward because the options are slimmer. Unless your staff is decimated early, you're typically just looking for a two-start pitcher who won't kill you or a safe single start to cover one of your fringe guys who has a matchup at Coors or Wrigley Field. There's always a veteran like Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago or R.A. Dickey available if the matchup is just right (big Vegas favorite, pitcher park).

Twelve-teamers are a whole different animal because your fringe guys have so much more potential. If you bid on Finnegan's two-step for Week 2, for instance, how do you decide on your drop between guys like Zack Wheeler, Daniel Norris and Mike Foltynewicz? With all three of these guys' strikeout rates within the same range, it's worth considering what divisions they play in. That leads into one very important piece of advice: Always project your fringe pitchers' starts out for the next few weeks. You can essentially play a game of musical chairs and do your best to stay one step (read: week) ahead of your league in FAAB if you know what matchups lie ahead.

In the case of my NFBC decision of dropping one of Wheeler, Norris or Folty (all of whom had rough first outings), I opted to drop the guy in the American League who has a start at Cleveland on tap – a start I know I want no part of. It may sound silly to make a decision based on one upcoming matchup, but chances are Norris or someone comparable will be available in my 12-team league two weeks from now if I'm in need. Unless I believe Norris is going to take a significant leap into being an almost-every-week starter for me, he's expendable as someone I picked toward the end of my draft. Though I don't anticipate needing to play Foltynewicz this week (he's this team's SP8), I know that if I needed to, I'd much rather take a shot with him at home against the Padres than Norris at Cleveland. As for Wheeler, he holds the most risk of the group, but also the most upside -- and that's something I'm willing to hold out for, even if it means letting him ride my bench for a couple of weeks while I track his starts.

Last season, many of my pitching staffs were decapitated early on, as I owned plenty of Gerrit Cole and Matt Harvey shares. I spent much of the season chasing two-start garbage in an attempt to catch up in wins and strikeouts, all the while watching my ratios sink further down an unmanageable hole. Of course, it's early, but most of my rotations are deep and loaded this time, ready to withstand the need to stream questionable options.

The bottom line is, it's a long season, so we need to be ready for all the twists and turns around the bend. If you're aggressive with early bidding, be sure you're doing your homework and making well-reasoned adds. Strike with vigor for the player you want while simultaneously doing your best to ensure that you don't regret your drop later. Most importantly, be sure to project (as best you can with potential weather-related postponements) the next three to four starts of both your fringe SPs and those on your watchlist so you can properly manage and maximize your starts.

RISERS

The most important takeaway from my weekly barometer is that the list should not be skimmed for pickups and drops. A riser listed below is simply a player with a standout week who's being featured. The opposite is the case with the fallers -- players who are struggling. Often, the best pickups (or guys to insert into your lineup) are the guys coming off rough weeks; that's just the way the cookie crumbles. Be sure to read my analysis and then discern for yourself the proper course of action.

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA)

Realmuto has collected hits in half of his at-bats (11-for-22) over the course of a brilliant six-game hitting streak to open the season. He was no secret heading into the 2017 season, as Realmuto was on average the fifth catcher off draft boards (seventh round in 15-teamers), as he offers value in two categories where catchers rarely contribute: batting average and stolen bases. Realmuto has led off or hit second in all but one game and seems locked in around the top of the lineup. Martin Prado should hit second against lefties once he's off the DL, but either way, the first week is a good sign of things to come for Realmuto owners. I wouldn't go so far as to call him the next Buster Posey, but he could hit .300 with double-digit bags for the second season in a row. That said, as I mentioned as a guest on the Dear Mr. Fantasy podcast Monday, Realmuto has a legitimate shot at ending the season as the top-ranked catcher.

Yunel Escobar (3B, LAA)

Escobar had a nice week (.417 with seven runs) and is a worthwhile pickup for your bench in 15-team leagues. Ever the model of consistency, Escobar has shown solid plate patience over the course of his career, finishing each of his 10 seasons with a strikeout rate between 10 and 13 percent. Escobar has little to no pop in his bat (career .103 ISO), but he offers value in batting average and the always-underrated runs category, as he should lead off for the Angels all season. The veteran went into the second half of last season with a .317 BA before cooling off slightly and has finished two straight seasons with a batting average north of .300. It's nice that he's almost always available to be added as a free agent when you need a little boost in runs or batting average.

Brandon Belt (1B, SF)

He was available at a fair price in drafts this season (172 ADP), and the early returns (five runs, three homers, seven RBI) could perhaps have his owners thinking this is finally his breakout season. Belt pulled a Machado and stopped running altogether last season (no stolen bases), but he's already stolen one in the first week of action. Perhaps he offers a handful of those this season. Regardless, it's shocking to look at his career stats and notice that he has never hit the 20-homer mark. I'd put money on 2017 being the year. Belt has been smashing everything this year – all of his Week 1 hits fall into the hard-hit (47.4%) or medium-hit (52.6%) categories on FanGraphs. Belt continues to hit lefties and righties equally well (.272 against both over the last three seasons) and has snugly settled in as the two-hole hitter.

Jed Lowrie (2B, OAK)

I added Lowrie in both of my 15-team NFBC teams to provide some coverage for mid-week lineup changes should something happen to one of my starting middle infielders. Lowrie has dealt with a multitude of injuries over the last three seasons and is slowly headed toward the twilight of his career; he turns 33 next week. Lowrie hit .381 last week (8-for-21) with a homer and five runs scored. The switch-hitter has mostly been hitting sixth in the lineup, but he may occasionally hit second. He's been hitting the ball hard early on (42 percent hard-hit rate) and should serve as a decent pinch-hit option for your 15-teamer as long as he stays on the field.

Corey Dickerson (OF, TB)

C-Dick lead off, C-Dick go yard. Dickerson has at least one hit in every game in Week 1 (six of seven) including two home runs. He struck out seven times last week and that will certainly continue be a season-long issue for the free swinger. Dickerson also has a history of going into prolonged slumps, so that's something owners will want to brace themselves for. He did not fare well against Michael Pineda on Monday, but Dickerson gets two more righties these next two days in Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery (making his season debut). Dickerson then draws two lefties in Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz, so you can sit him over the weekend with ease in NFBC leagues and others with twice-weekly roster moves. A nice depth bat for your 12-teamers who was taken late in most drafts, expect C-Dick to crank out 25 to 30 homers with a batting average south of .260.

Kendall Graveman (SP, OAK)

Graveman was phenomenal in both of his starts last week, beating the Rangers and Angels while striking out 12 batters in 13 innings. A groundball pitcher who posted a stingy six percent walk rate last season, Gravemen finished with a 4.11 ERA and a measly 14 percent strikeout rate. He works mainly with a vicious sinker that's up in velocity by nearly two ticks this season (94.3 mph). So long as you didn't spend more than 10 percent of your FAAB budget, you should be able to ride the wave for his next few starts (at the Royals this week, then a two-step at home against Texas and Seattle next week). I do believe the strikeouts are a bit of an aberration, though it probably doesn't take a fantasy pro to come that conclusion. Relying on his sinker for more than 90 percent of his pitches over those first two starts is concerning, too; he'll have to start trusting his secondary pitches.

Risers not to fall for:Jason Vargas, James Shields, Antonio Senzatela, Amir Garrett

Risers I'm buying:Brandon Finnegan, Jesse Chavez, Wei-Yin Chen, Ivan Nova

FALLERS

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA)

Well, here you go: an example of why you read my fine print. Cruz is apparently still in the midst of his WBC hangover, as he's off to an incredibly slow start in the first week (2-for-25), though he doesn't blame the vicious flu he was dealing with last week. He's getting up there in age (36 now), but Cruz has been one of baseball's most consistent power hitters, averaging a whopping 42 homers and 102 RBI over the last three seasons. Keep in mind that Cruz's average exit velocity (95.9 mph) was the best in baseball last season. Cruz will get off the schneid soon enough on his way to another productive season.

Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM)

Some of you may hate me for this, but I don't love Yo as much as the rest of you. Don't get me wrong, he's a masher who's made incredible strides with his plate discipline (walk rate up to 9.4 percent last season after four seasons of around six percent). His 31 dingers in just 132 games last year were impressive as well. Cespedes has always mashed and has never had a chance to call a hitter-friendly park home. He took one out of the yard last week, but Cespedes has otherwise looked sloppy at the plate. I do think his walk rate regresses this season. Cespedes could very well earn his draft slot, I just don't believe that monster 40-homer, 120-RBI season New Yorkers are anticipating will come to fruition. Don't @ me.

DJ LeMahieu (2B, COL)

A 2-for-23 start (.087 BA) is surprising for last season's NL batting champ, but is anything really surprising after one week? LeMahieu is the last guy I'm worried about getting it going. He had a scheduled day off on Sunday, but notched a pinch-hit single and then a run-scoring triple. On Monday night, he added a double and a homer. So it's back to his originally scheduled season: a batting average north of .300 and a boatload of runs scored.

Cold catchers (Travis d'Arnaud, NYM; Russell Martin, TOR; Mike Zunino, SEA)

Martin and Zunino are known batting-average drains, but d'Arnaud has the potential to avoid hurting us there if he stays healthy. The issue is that Rene Rivera catches Noah Syndergaard, so you've got an automatic 20 fewer at-bats for TDA each month. He had just one hit in 10 at-bats last week, and so far we've seen no sign of that retooled swing we heard about in the spring. He's also buried in a dead spot as the eighth-place hitter in the Mets' lineup. Still, I do believe he will produce enough for your C2 spot if he can stay on the field. Meanwhile, Martin scored two runs last week but had zero hits. The 34-year-old has popped at least 20 homers in two straight seasons, and we're still a bit away from that park heating up. Zunino is a Statcast darling who hits the ball hard. He socked 12 homers in 55 games last season and could be among the league leaders at his position in that category, but it's going to come with an average that stings.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP, NYY)

A tough blow to the ratios for those who took him as their SP2 in drafts. Even tougher if he's your No. 1 starter. Tanaka lasted less than three innings in the season opener last Sunday, allowing seven earned runs and two walks to a Rays offense that starting the season swinging. He made it through five innings against the Orioles in his second start, though he uncharacteristically walked four batters. Tanaka only issued four walks once in 31 starts last season. The good news is that there's no hint of concern with his elbow and his velocity hasn't dipped. The bad news is that he's put his owners in a hole with so many of the other top 15 starters (by ADP) getting off to good starts. The Yankees have pushed Tanaka's start back to Friday, so he will now face the Cardinals in the weekend series opener while rookie Jordan Montgomery makes his season debut against the Rays on Wednesday. Tanaka's start next week will come against the White Sox. I'd certainly be a little concerned, but I'd still start him.

Fallers not to worry about:Maikel Franco, Devon Travis, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs

Fallers to be concerned with:Andrew McCutchen, Yan Gomes, Blake Snell, Adam Wainwright