MLB Barometer: Values Around the Infield

These last few days have had a sobering effect on those of us who loaded up on early drafts to take advantage of hitters and pitchers we believed to be drastically mispriced and undervalued. As you probably can imagine, there's a huge tradeoff. Early-March drafts are a great opportunity for those of us who started our prep early to take advantage of market inefficiencies. But when spring training and WBC injuries start affecting our drafted rosters, the wind is taken out of our sails and we wonder why we didn't just continue studying in preparation to draft near the end of the month.

Ian Desmond fractured his hand and may not be back until sometime in May; Salvador Perez injured his knee in a collision during a WBC game; Jason Kipnis will be shut down for a couple of weeks dealing with a sore right shoulder and is expected to miss Opening Day. Even the Diamondbacks received a scare over the weekend with A.J. Pollock experiencing tightness in his left groin – a potential flare-up of an injury from late last season.

The Desmond and Perez injuries are fluky, and Perez's may not be that serious. But the Kipnis and Pollock ones are stark reminders that we need to be wary of paying full price for hitters and pitchers who are not fully healthy. We certainly can afford to make mistakes in our drafts and even to lose players before the season starts; it's still possible to grind during the season and be competitive. But those risks have to be calculated ones. A sharp manager will pick his spots with high-risk, high-upside picks and balance those with safer, (sometimes boring) high-floor players with good health and solid track records. In big competitions like the NFBC, it behooves us to embrace risk when it comes to high-end talent, as opposed to satellite and home leagues, in which we're simply looking to excel within our grouping of 12 or 15 teams.

Continuing our valuation adjustments from last week, below are some second basemen, third basemen and shortstops who should easily out-earn their current ADPs.

Second Base

What a difference a season makes. Second base is fully loaded with power options like we've never seen before. In 2015, there were only two second basemen who hit 20 or more homers – Brian Dozier with 28 and Robinson Cano with 21). Last season, however, we saw 15 guys who qualified at the position crush 20 or more, including five who hit 30-plus. We're not likely to see a repeat of that fireworks show, but there's no denying that the middle infield is no longer a punchless wasteland. I'd expect about a 50 percent reduction in 20-homer hitters at the position, but it is loaded nevertheless. While I can understand the excitement about Trea Turner, there's simply no way I would use a first-round pick on him this season, as many are. Turner feasted on Triple-A starters and middling (pun intended) relievers down the stretch. He should flirt with triple-digit runs and 40 stolen bases in 600-plus plate appearances, but wouldn't expect him to maintain last year's BA or approach 20 dingers. Turner's a rare talent and an All-Star in the making, but so was last year's mid-first-round sophomore, Carlos Correa, who finished the season as the 70th-ranked player. I don't mind taking risks on younger players later in my drafts; it's just that my first round has to be reserved for players who have a history of production at the major league level.

The original plan was to feature Matt Carpenter in this spot, but he's dealing with a stiff back, which kept him out of the WBC. A healthy Carpenter has the potential to out-earn even a high-end 71 ADP given that he's evolved into more of a power guy (42 percent hard-hit rate was the league's third-best mark) and the fact that he's eligible at three positions (1B, 2B, 3B). But there are some red flags around this back pain since it's likely linked to a torn oblique that caused him to miss a month of the 2016 season. He was a shell of his former self upon returning, and back/oblique injuries are bad news for hitters. Pay close attention over the next couple of weeks. If you see him slipping in your drafts, you know why.

Logan Forsythe, Dodgers (ADP: 225)

There's plenty to like about Forsythe, yet managers in the NFBC seem to be slow to adjust. He is currently the 18th second basemen drafted, with a strong case to heftily out-earn his draft position and finish among the top 10 at his position. Do people not realize he's leading off for the Dodgers and has a legitimate chance to rank among the league's run leaders this season? Runs are always the forgotten category in fantasy baseball, yet they matter just as much as the other four. There are plenty of other reasons to like Forsythe, too – his hard-hit rate last season (36 percent) was among the top 50, and he set career highs in runs (76) and home runs (20) last season despite missing 35 games. The 30-year-old late-bloomer was a first-round pick of the Padres eight years ago who has only played anything resembling a full season just once (in 2015). He's a guy I'm targeting in my drafts this year and someone I'm not afraid to wait for as I build at other positions. Forsythe won't set the base paths ablaze, but he could post a steal total in the low double digits, improve his batting average and pop another 15 or 20 homers. Most importantly, he's that mid-to-late round value for the runs category similar to Ben Zobrist last season. If you recall, Zobrist was readily available after the 15th round, but he was a sharp target for the runs category given his spring lineup slot and the team around him; Zobrist finished the season with 94 runs scored. Forsythe has been taken as high 80th overall in NFBC drafts, which is certainly extreme. You don't have to pay that price, but there's no reason why Forsythe can't earn it.

Digging deeper:

Cesar Hernandez, Phillies (ADP: 288)

With Li'l Cease, it's all a matter of how much you think he runs this season. I targeted Hernandez with my second-to-last pick in 12-team, 30-round drafts last season and was disappointed early on, as he stole just six bags on 11 tries prior to the All-Star break. He did hit .291 before the break, then turned it up over the second half, finishing the season at .294 BA with 11 more steals. Unfortunately, he was caught stealing eight more times; "inefficient" would be an understatement. Most importantly, Hernandez's walk rate soared from just under six percent in the first three months to nearly 16 percent over the final three. Of course, pitchers will likely attack him down the middle a bit more this season. Hernandez added 15 pounds of muscle to his 165-pound frame over the offseason, so it will be interesting to continue watching him in spring training. The key here is that Hernandez is expected to start the 2017 season as the Phillies' leadoff hitter, which should help him improve his steal and run totals. Hernandez is being drafted in the vicinity of aging veteran Brandon Phillips and boring, old Josh Harrison (who should also spend time atop his lineup). While he may not repeat a BA north of .290 this season, he certainly won't hurt you in that category, especially considering how late in your draft you can snag him.

Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Phillips (ADP: 287), Joe Panik (ADP: 307)

Shortstop

The shortstop position is top-heavy with seven of them consistently being drafted in the first three rounds of 12-team leagues. I'm on board with Oak's Corner author Scott Jenstad that Xander Bogaerts is not someone I plan on targeting unless he drops a full round and fits my team like a glove. Though I think Corey Seager will consistently return top-30 overall value over the next few years, I'm not inclined to take him in the second rounds of drafts, given alternatives like Joey Votto and Charlie Blackmon. In fact, I've been punting the position over the course of my first few drafts this season, as I typically don't adhere to position scarcity and like to zig where others zag – but to each their own. There are simply way too many solid values later on at the position who are serviceable and don't feel overpriced just because they're listed at a position that has traditionally been scarce. We may not be able to find league-winning talent at the position late (a la Jonathan Villar last season), but there are certainly options that will earn their keep. Here are a couple of them:

Marcus Semien, Athletics (ADP: 208)

Semien was a lineup dichotomy last season, as the .238 average over 621 plate appearances certainly dinged you in that category, yet he made up for it with 27 homers and 10 steals. It's also most likely the case that those who owned him didn't have him active full time. Anyone who told you last March that they expected Semien to nearly double his power output from 2015 was likely insane or lying to you. However, Semien has displayed pop all through the minors and in his time at Cal Berkeley. Semien's 28.5 percent hard-hit rate last season was below average, but his ISO approached .200 and he's maintained a 22 percent strikeout rate over the last two seasons – a significant improvement from the 27 percent he posted in 2014. Semien spent some time leading off last season despite a below-average OBP, and he'll likely settle in more appropriately as the sixth hitter in the A's lineup this season. His defense has improved to the point where he should be able to hold down the job yet again this season, but his owners are likely to experience some headaches because Semien is known for extreme slumps and streaks. Expect the homers to regress a tad with a slight improvement in his batting average and RBI. He finished the 2016 season as the 11th shortstop on the NFBC Player Rater and is currently being drafted as the 19th shortstop off the board.

Digging deeper:

Orlando Arcia, Brewers (ADP: 269)

Arcia isn't going to be a league-winner this season, but if you're looking for some bags late in your draft, you could certainly do worse. Arcia is probably a better real-life player than fantasy contributor as he opens first full season in the majors. I do think Steamer and most projection outlets are underselling him in batting average (Steamer projects him for .246), especially as he focuses on improving his patience at the plate this spring. He received 60 plate appearances in the two-hole in 2016, but the slick-fielding Venezuelan hit seventh for most of his at-bats, and that polished defense will keep him in the lineup even when his bat doesn't. Unless something happens to Keon Broxton or Arcia drastically increases his walk rate, the kid will probably hit seventh again. Arcia's main fantasy contribution should come on the base paths, as he should swipe 20 or more bags.

Keep in mind that Diamondbacks SS/OF Chris Owings goes 30 picks after Arcia and is the guy I was targeting for the position in most of my drafts back in February. Owings is similar to Arcia in that he's slated to hit seventh, plays half his games in a good hitter's park, and rarely gets on base via the free pass. I've pulled back on my Owings love over the last week due to manager Torey Lovullo's history of running minor league teams that didn't run much. Additionally, a hot spring training by Ketel Marte would put him in position to snag the job from Owings. Arcia is definitely a safer bet for 550 plate appearances even if part of his journey will be finding out who he is as a hitter at the major league level.

Honorable Mentions:

Jedd Gyorko (ADP: 250; eligible at 2B/3B/SS), Tyler Saladino (ADP: 426, high of 276; gaining steam)

Third Base

You don't need me to tell you how loaded third base is this year. Similar to shortstop, the position is extremely top-heavy; you essentially have a 27 percent chance of picking someone at the hot corner in the first round. Third base also happens to be where you're most likely going to grab your CI due to how shallow first base is this year. I do like some of the early and mid-range options (Beltre, Bregman, Rendon) but don't mind waiting until the range of 115 to 150 overall for an incredibly undervalued batch of options that includes Miguel Sano (ADP: 117), Maikel Franco (123), Justin Turner (128) and Jake Lamb (146). Lamb will likely continue to struggle against southpaws, but he was a homer short of the 30-homer club in his first full season. For the record, Lamb should not be priced nearly two full rounds below Franco. Turner has been drafted as high as 64th in NFBC drafts, and though he can earn that tag, there's no reason for us to reach more than two rounds if we really want him. He may not crush 27 round trippers again this season, but he's in a fabulous run-producing spot (third) in a potent Dodgers lineup. But if I'm stonewalled on all of these guys, the hot-corner bat I want is:

Nick Castellanos, Tigers (ADP: 206)

Even though his season was shortened by injury, you can still call 2016 his breakout year. Castellanos was on pace for 25 homers and 90 RBI and had already set a new career high in runs scored (54) in just 110 games. The allure with Castellanos this season is his potential opportunity to hit second in the Tigers' lineup ahead of stud run-producers Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton. Yet, for some reason, his ADP has actually fallen recently (206 ADP pre-March 1, 212 after). Castellanos strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats, but he improved his hard-hit rate from the previous season (from 33 to 36 percent). A line of 25 homers, 80 RBI and 90 runs is certainly in play, and those stats will come alongside a batting average (and OBP) that won't crush you. Lineup slot is key, and I'll continue to repeat myself about how our competition continues to undervalue runs since it's an unsexy category. If Castellanos does indeed hit second and stays healthy, you're looking at a top-100 player available at a hefty discount.

Digging deeper:

Yangervis Solarte, Padres (ADP: 290)

The former Twins and Yankees prospect had a semi-breakout with the Padres last season, and he still has some room for growth. The 29-year-old improved his hard-hit rate and reduced his groundball rate in each of the last three seasons. Solarte was hard to strike out (14.9 percent) last season and hit .286 with a repeatable .306 BABIP. In a tidbit of news you may have missed, Solarte is expected to be the Padres' everyday second baseman; Cory Spangenberg and Ryan Schimpf are competing for the third-base job. That means additional positional eligibility at a position we'd rather slot him in at given the fact that he isn't a massive power bat (which is our preference at 3B and CI). Grab Solarte toward the end of your drafts and be sure to give me a shout-out at the end of the season.

Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Drury (ADP: 262), Travis Shaw (ADP: 316)

Next week, we'll talk outfielders. Feel free to reach out via Twitter (@RotoGut) if you have specific questions.