This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks Today
Monday night on the MLB diamond features a loaded slate. I'm seeing a really nice look out west. Let's take a deeper dive.
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Seattle Mariners (+116) @ LA Dodgers (-136) | Total: 8
With every game gaining more importance as the home stretch continues, we have a couple of teams needing a big series win between Seattle and LAD. Seattle is currently on the outside looking in, four games out of the AL West division and 5.5 games back in the Wild Card. The Dodgers are in a much better position, as they lead the NL West by three games ahead of the surging Padres. Can Seattle get back in the race?
The M's will turn to one of their better 2024 starters, Bryan Woo, proud owner of a pristine 2.06 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. It's a smaller sample size because of the 14 starts with Woo missing time this year, but it shows when he's been out there, he's been butter.
Of course, LA is arguably the best lineup in the league, so he will need his A-Game this evening. Against similar level offenses in the Phillies and Yankees, he combined for 13 shutout innings. Woo's effectiveness has been under the radar this season, so as long as he continues the effective streak he's been on over his last four starts that has seen him allow just three earned runs across 24.2 innings. The pitching is rarely the problem for Seattle, it's their offense.
That offense is atrocious. They're actually DEAD LAST in batting average as a team (.216) to go along with the most strikeouts (1,282). Of course those K's couldn't pile up on Friday when we had the Paul Skenes over strikeouts. Additionally, they're 26th in runs scored (496) and OBP (.302). The only way this lineup somehow survives is being 14th in taters (142). When you have Julio Rodriguez and now Randy Arozarena, that should be illegal. So the real question is why would I like Seattle tonight?
Well, the Dodgers are throwing rookie Gavin Stone. Despite Stone being a rotational starter since day one, there is an opportunity for him to yield a bit. Since July started, he's pitching to a 6.10 ERA across seven starts. One of the big reasons why is because the dude loves giving up them taters (15 on the year). He's allowed nine in those last seven starts, literally giving at least one up in every game. This is something you home run bettors could look to target. Because the M's aren't likely to do the normal run manufacturing of getting a guy on, over, then in, the long ball is certainly their best chance.
It's a decisive pitching advantage for Seattle, so getting a nice plus-money price definitely has me looking for an upset in Chavez Ravine. The M's have lost five of their last six games and are gasping for air right now. Tonight could be a good opportunity to pull off the upset.
Pick: Mariners ML +116
