This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Friday, August 2
- Year-to-Date Record: 123-118-1
- Prior article: 1-2 ( -2.36 units)
MLB Betting Tips
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MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and unders are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on overs on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Boston Red Sox 
at Texas Rangers 
The Red Sox have been better on the road versus home, especially against right-handed pitching. Kutter Crawford had been lights out until his last two starts against the Dodgers and Yankees allowing a whopping eight home runs. While there is risk in taking Crawford here, the Rangers' offense has struggled to a bottom-five wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home. The Red Sox are third in wRC+ against right-handers on the road.
Jose Urena has pitched well for the Rangers, but he is overmatched in this spot.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Rangers
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Carlos Carrasco is always a pitcher I look to go against with his 6.80 ERA last year and 5.68 ERA this year. He has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts and looks to be wearing down. Carrasco does allow a ton of hard contact, but he is strong in the strikeout-to-walk ratio game, so he can have a decent game from time to time.
The Orioles are fifth in wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, which is key because the Orioles score almost a run greater at home in the first five innings. I was also looking at an over on the game total of 9.0 because the Orioles have gone over in 10 out of their last 11 and eight out of their last nine on the road.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Guardians
- Orioles OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
Miami Marlins 
at Atlanta Braves 
Much has been made of the Marlins' moves at the trade deadline. If you look at their existing roster, you can see why. I will be looking at their team total unders as much as possible starting tonight against Spencer Schwellenbach.
Marlins starting pitcher Valente Bellozo last started on July 2nd against the Red Sox at home. He allowed five runs in five innings, but he did record eight strikeouts. But facing this Braves lineup on the road is a daunting task.
MLB Picks for Braves at Marlins
- Marlins UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +135)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
Colorado Rockies 
at San Diego Padres 
I usually look to fade the Rockies on the road, but we have two horrible starting pitchers in Austin Gomber and Randy Vasquez, so I looked at the total. The total is only 8.0 on FanDuel, albeit with some juice, but this total is way off by at least a full run.
With two bad starting pitchers within the division, the edge should go to the hitters, who have a history with both. In two starts against the Rockies, Vasquez has a 12.79 ERA in 6.1 innings. Gomber has been better in two starts against the Padres, but his road splits are bad. Since June 1st, Gomber has a 9.72 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 25 innings.
The Padres have destroyed left-handed pitching at home since June 1st with a 143 wRC+ and a minuscule 13.8 percent strikeout rate.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Padres
- Rockies/Padres OVER 8 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -118)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Orioles OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Marlins UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +135)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
- Rockies/Padres OVER 8 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -118)
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