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Last article: 0-3 (-3.00 RW Bucks)
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After a solid profit in my last article, I'll look to keep it going with three bets focused on one of the final games of Tuesday night's slate.
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Tampa Bay Rays 
at New York Yankees 
Best Bets
An interesting pitching matchup awaits Tuesday in the middle game of a three-game set between the Rays and Yankees in the Bronx, as Zach Eflin, who's in the midst of a career-best season, will face off with Carlos Rodon.
Eflin has already tied a career high with 11 wins, and his 3.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP are also career bests. What's more, Eflin's expected numbers paint an even rosier picture – he's sporting a .227 xBAA and 3.12 xERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to struggle to score runs despite Aaron Judge's recent return and check in with a .221 average, .296 wOBA and -13.2 wRAA against right-handed pitching in the last month.
On the other side, Rodon has understandably been inconsistent early while trying to shake off rust after a delayed start to the season, but he looked mostly like his old self again last time out during what was his fourth start overall. The southpaw allowed an earned run on four hits over 5.2 innings to the Mets, recording four Ks on the way to his first win.
The Rays also happen to be one of the most punchless teams against left-handers, sporting a .204 average, .574 OPS, .105 ISO, .256 wOBA and -8.6 wRAA versus southpaws on the road since June 1.
Game Focus Best Bet: 1st 5 innings – Under 4.5 total runs (-148 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rodon has boasted premium swing-and-miss stuff over the previous two seasons, in particular, racking up strikeout rates well north of 30.0 percent in each campaign. His average fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is just a tick below his career high of 95.6 at the moment, but Rodon has been relatively quiet on that front thus far with only 15 Ks in 20.1 innings.
Nevertheless, he's bound to ascend back to his career norms the more he pitches, and Tuesday presents a very good opportunity for him to match or exceed his current season high of six strikeouts – the Rays check in with a 28.7 percent strikeout rate in the aforementioned June 1- present sample.
Game Focus Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This final bet flows directly from the previously stated case for a lower-scoring first half of the game and strong performances by two talented pitchers.
Neither squad has been in top form offensively of late, with Tampa Bay and New York having finished July with middling .294 and .302 wOBAs, respectively. The Rays and Yankees also generated respective .216 and .226 batting averages in that span while finishing 29th and 24th, respectively, in all of baseball in terms of total hits during the sample.
Then, both bullpens were in good form in July – Rays relievers allowed just a .219 average, while Yankees firemen pitched to an only slightly higher .230 BAA in that sample, with both figures ranking in the top 10 in MLB.
Game Focus Best Bet: Under 16.5 total hits (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Rays at Yankees:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Tuesday:
- 1st 5 innings – Under 4.5 total runs (-148 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 16.5 total hits (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
