This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is the official start of summer in the Northern Hemisphere. It's a light day of MLB action, and because said action is almost entirely in the afternoon, that's where the DFS slate is focused. There are seven games on the docket with a first pitch of 1:05 p.m. ET. Get those lineups in early! Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Seth Lugo, KC at OAK ($9,500): Yes, Lugo has a 3.42 FIP compared to his 2.40 ERA, but he's also averaged under two walks and under one home run per nine innings, two things I find quite encouraging. Oh, and this matchup is quite encouraging as well. The Athletics are 28th in runs scored and boast a sub-.300 on-base percentage (OBP) as a team. Oakland has done one thing well offensively, hit homers, and Lugo doesn't have an issue with those.
Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN vs. TB ($7,400): Somehow, after 11 starts, Woods Richardson has a 2-1 record. Part of that is he doesn't go deep into games, only reaching six innings three times. However, Woods Richardson also has a 3.29 ERA, so at least he has pitched well, even if he has not done a Bert Blyleven impression. The three worst offenses in MLB are seemingly locked in, but above that trio, there are four teams in the next tier all just trying to avoid being in the bottom five in runs scored. Tampa is one of those four teams. It is also in the bottom four in home runs.
Top Targets
With 11 homers and 10 stolen bases, Jose Altuve ($5,200) has already hit double digits on both those fronts once again. Additionally, with his average at .297 through 73 games, a third season of hitting .300 in a row is in the cards. Chris Flexen is staring down his third season in a row with a K/BB rate below 2.00, which is a bad thing. The .296 average he's allowed to righties in that time is also bad, but not for Altuve. It looks quite good to him I'm sure.
It's taken some time, but Julio Rodriguez ($5,000) is digging his numbers out of a hole. He's been stealing bases well all season, with 16, but thanks to a couple of recent home runs he has seven of those as well. The righty's average is even up to .264. Logan Allen was serviceable as a rookie, but his .274 average allowed to right-handers was a concern. Righties have hit .300 against him this season and his FIP is up to 5.37.
Bargain Bats
His wonderful, unexpected rookie campaign (in his age-30 season) feels like an artifact now, but Joey Meneses ($3,300) is primed to start at first base for a bit with Joey Gallo injured. His numbers against lefties have cratered this season, but he's still hit .275 against right-handers. Last season, Ryne Nelson had significant splits, posting a 3.46 ERA on the road compared to an 8.25 ERA at home. I figured being that bad anywhere was a bad sign. Nelson's road ERA is up to 5.19 this season. Additionally, righties have hit a whopping .376 against him.
You may have heard the White Sox have an offense that, shall we say, lacks talent. Gavin Sheets ($3,300) is not an outlier per se, but he has seven homers and a .762 OPS versus righties. That's downright acceptable. The Astros are expected to start Spencer Arrighetti due to an abundance of injuries on the pitching front. The rookie has a 6.37 ERA. Lefties have hit .294 against him as well.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Rockies (Ty Blach): Teoscar Hernandez ($5,900), Will Smith ($5,800), Andy Pages ($4,400)
Blach has struck out a mere 4.83 batters per nine innings. Since 2022, righties have hit .350 against him. This game is at Coors Field. I couldn't have picked this trio for a stack faster if I tried.
Over the last three seasons, Hernandez has slugged .572 against left-handed pitchers. Also, while he likes his new home park better than his nightmarish one-season stint with the Mariners, his .859 OPS in away games still shows an affinity for being on the road. A catcher in Smith who has slugged .483 in his career is a fine choice for Coors Field. Additionally, since 2022, he has a .910 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. Rookie Pages has hit .266 with nine home runs and grabbed the spot in centerfield for the Dodgers. So far in his career he's scuffled against righties but has a .909 OPS against southpaws.
Royals at Athletics (Mitch Spence): Bobby Witt ($6,500), Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,400), Kyle Isbel ($2,500)
Only six of rookie Spence's 17 appearances have been starts, so figuring out who he is as a starter is still not clear. What we know is he has a 3.95 ERA and has only struck out 6.79 batters per nine innings. Notably, while he's only allowed one homer at home, he has a 4.18 home ERA because there's a lot of space for singles and doubles in Oakland's park. To that end, lefties have batted .277 against Spence, with eight doubles and two homers across 100 at-bats. Thus, I have two southpaws in this stack.
Witt is not a lefty, but he's one of baseball's best hitters, and his skill set is perfect for a park like this. He's batted .323 and hit 11 homers, but he also has 20 doubles, 21 stolen bases and seven triples. Pasquantino has a .900 OPS over the last three weeks. He has a .791 OPS versus righties over the previous three seasons. Isbel has never hit much and doesn't walk at all but he has four homers, three triples and four stolen bases in 61 games. At this salary, and with him as a lefty, he's worth a shot.
