MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, May 14

MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, May 14

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

11 games are included on Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel, with a traditional 7:10 p.m. EDT first pitch. All 22 starters are listed, giving us plenty to choose from, with five of those options sitting at five-figure prices, though only three more in the $9,000 tier. No games have a double-digit run total and only three sit at 9.0 or greater, with three also coming in at 7.5 runs or less, so we may be able to squeeze out some value on the mound and target some more expensive hitters with offense seemingly sparse across the slate.

There's a weather delay possibility in Atlanta, though postponement seems unlikely. Winds appear favorable there, as well as in Boston and San Francisco.

Pitching

Dylan Cease, SD vs. COL ($11,000): Cease is just in too great of a spot to ignore. The Rockies strike out at a 26.7 percent rate off righties while posting a weak 79 wRC+ and .123 ISO, and they're not at home here. Cease has been brilliant for the Padres, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts while five times providing a 4x return or better at this price. The price is the only downside, as he has to be elite to make it work. Seven innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts against this lineup in a prior start was just that. 

Jameson Taillon, CHC at ATL ($8,700): Atlanta's offense isn't in peak form, and could remain shorthanded if Austin Riley remains sidelined. For GPPs, targeting someone like Taillon can potentially match the bigger-priced arms, and come with low roster percentages with casual folks glossing over the matchup. It could also obviously implode if this offense breaks out of a slump. The peripherals suggest Taillon is due some regression, sitting with a 1.13 ERA and a 4.32 xFIP, but he's keeping the ball on the ground at a 45.8 percent clip and isn't allowing homers. Atlanta's 23.3 percent strikeout rate should allow Taillon to get more than his low 6.0 per nine rate.

Gavin Stone, LAD at SF ($7,900): Stone has righted his season of late, allowing just three runs over his last three starts, all of which were of the quality variety, totaling 20 innings thrown. His strikeouts aren't elite with just 11 in this span and a 6.4 per nine overall, and the Giants aren't likely to assist that effort either with just a 22.9 percent K rate. His form and the matchup suggest we can get some clean innings from Stone, though. San Francisco has just a .299 wOBA, 99 wRC+ and .131 ISO off righties.

Top Targets

Jack Leiter hasn't proven capable of getting major-league hitters out, allowing a .499 wOBA and 1.189 OPS to lefties. Building around Jose Ramirez ($4,000) and/or Josh Naylor ($3,800) appears optimal. Naylor has the better splits off righties and has been more consistent but could go overlooked. Stacking the top of this lineup is certainly in play with a third option likely coming at a substantial discount.

Elly De La Cruz ($4,500) has so many different paths to fantasy points he's a nightly consideration. This looks like a plus spot for him against Slade Cecconi, who struggled in his first home start and is allowing 1.7 HR/9 overall.

Giants' starter Keaton Winn is the slate's cheapest, and he's facing the potent Dodgers lineup. He's allowing a .389 wOBA to righties overall, a number that rises to .452 at home along with a 1.064 OPS. Mookie Betts ($4,300) makes perfect sense as a starting point offensively.

Bargain Bats

I've had minimal luck in targeting Padres' bats in this column, so I'll tread lightly, especially with Rockies' starter Cal Quantrill throwing decently. Luis Arraez ($2,900) has been stable yet unspectacular, creating a solid floor. Jurickson Profar ($3,100) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) have plus splits off righties, both having wOBAs north of .400.

Willi Castro ($3,100) hit safely in 10 straight, went through an 0-for-10 three-game slump, and has now hit safely in five straight. He offers position flexibility and has a .525 wOBA, 248 wRC+ and .250 ISO in 30 plate appearances off lefties.

Oneil Cruz ($3,100) has hit in seven straight, collecting 12 total hits in that span, including three homers and four doubles. The price hasn't risen along with that form. Brewers starter Joe Ross has an 8.10 home ERA (6.15 xFIP) across 13.1 innings, allowing a .389 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Stacks to Consider

Astros vs. JP Sears (Athletics): Kyle Tucker ($4,200), Yordan Alvarez ($3,700), Jeremy Pena ($3,300)

This may be as obvious of a stack as using Cease on the mound appears to be. Sears has a 4.20 ERA and similar 4.56 xFIP, so we can feel safe in knowing he won't dominate, and he's allowing 1.4 HR/9, so a big fly is probable. And the Astros mash lefties. Pena gives us some budget relief, and sits with a .456 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .261 ISO. Tucker goes .454/199/.352, and Alvarez .402/162/.111.  Tucker and Pena have had some BvP success too, going a combined 7-for-21 with Tucker taking Sears deep twice. Alvarez isn't in great form, but that's reflected in the cheaper price than we're accustomed to, and this likely gives us a 3-4-5 heart of the order stack.

Yankees vs. Chris Paddack (Twins): Aaron Judge ($4,300), Juan Soto ($4,200), Alex Verdugo ($3,100)

This column has highlighted what I feel are some clear and obvious targets. For GPPs, we'll need a different direction, and with so many top bats in favorable spots, the Yankees' slugging duo of Judge and Soto could be just that. Judge has gotten his power stroke going, with four of his 10 homers on the year coming over the last seven games. That's helped get him to a serviceable .357 wOBA and 134 wRC+ off righties. Soto has a team-high .431 wOBA, 185 wRC+ and .243 ISO off righties and is 2-for-3 off Paddack with two homers. The third piece isn't as easy, but we'l stick with a traditional stack and consider Verdugo, seeingly giving us a 2-3-4 lineup stack. Verdugo's still above average with a 118 wRC+, and with just a 6.5 percent K rate, he should put the ball in play three-to-four times with the potential for run production. Paddack has been brilliant at home, and the peripherals don't suggest a regression is coming. But he also hasn't had this kind of sustained success since his rookie season in 2019, and we shouldn't fear or ignore bats against him.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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