This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures: League Leaders for RBI, Hits and Strikeouts
Our MLB Futures series rolls on with a look at some MLB stat leaders bets for the upcoming season. Before I get into some more props I just wanted to highlight one obvious caveat to all of these: injury risk. It can work both ways in head-to-head and over/under props of course, but the following are all league leader props and one IL stint can end the play. So for that reason, I will probably wait a couple more weeks to slap most of these on.
It is spring though and everyone is tied for 1st place, so back to the optimism! Here are more props I like alongside the ATC projections.
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RBI Leaders
RBI leader odds via FanDuel
There is a strong case for all the favorites here, that is why they have the shortest odds (I know that is sophisticated analysis). Matt Olson lapped the field in 2023, winning the RBI title with 139 with Pete Alonso in 2nd place at 118. Olson had almost the perfect RBI storm in 2023 as batted cleanup for about half the season in a historically great lineup, popped 54 homers and hit .332 with men on and .321 with RISP, vs just .242 with bases empty.
Austin Riley in the 3-hole for virtually the entirety of 2023 had the opposite splits, .298 with bases empty and .199 with RISP, thus leaving plenty of ducks on the pond for Olson to knock in. ATC pegs him to lead the league again in 2024, but already we have the possibility that Ronald Acuna misses time. Tough to argue against betting on Olson anyway, but for these purposes, I will pass and try a couple of longer shots.
Vladimir Guerrero +2000 (ATC: 98 RBI)
Vlad has an off year in 2023 yet his Statcast numbers look very familiar with a 11.1% Barrel% vs 11.2% career number EV 92.1 vs. 92.6 and a 49.2% HardHit% exactly at career average. His homer total drifted to 26 vs 32 in 2022 and 48 in 2021 with an asterisk as he played some home games in Dunedin (FLA) and Buffalo.
Pretty much all Blue Jay batters had down years in 2023. ATC projects Vlad to hit 32 home runs in 2024 and bump his AVG. from .264 to .282, yet only sees a spike of 4 RBI. Again, there are so many variables here but between his overall skill level and some positive team and personal regression, I like the shot of upside variance at this price.
Jose Ramirez +5000 (ATC: 94 RBI)
How about an extreme long shot? Ramirez is a fantastic hitter who bats third in a rather uninspiring lineup, hence the price. But he is all of one season removed from 126 RBI's in 2022. His AVG. stayed nearly identical at .280 vs .282 and he dropped 5 homers, but his RBI total cratered to 80. The big difference was that he hit .331 with RISP in 2022 vs .212 in 2023. Perhaps he can flip this back around in 2024.
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Hits Leader
MLB hits leader odds via DraftKings.
Bo Bichette +1100, (ATC: 173 hits)
In a stat like hits, we want a guy that plays every day, bats at near the top of the order, and ideally does not walk too much. Oh, and they need to actually have a great hit tool. Bichette checks every box. He only missed three games apiece in 2022 and 2021, though he did miss 27 in 2023 with two short IL stints. He hits out of the 2-hole in a good Toronto lineup, has a .299 career AVG. and a low 5.5% BB%, so check, check and check.
Plus there is this: "Bichette said Wednesday that he added pilates, swimming and Muay Thai to his offseason training regimen and has been pleased with his physical conditioning in the early stages of spring training, Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic reports." Nice "best shape of his life" vibe. Bichette has trended downward in Fantasy drafts as his speed has oddly abandoned him at a young age, but we just need the hits to keep piling up for this wager to cash.
Trea Turner +1900, (ATC: 172)
Trea started slow in his first year in front of Philadelphia's notoriously patient fanbase. Then a funny thing happened. The fans gave him a standing ovation amid a slump, and Turner proceeded to light it up for the remainder of the season. He bats leadoff in an excellent lineup, plays pretty much every day, is a .296 career hitter and with a 7.1% career BB%, mostly puts the ball in play.
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MLB Strikeouts Leader
Unlike most other categories, we have a huge gap here between the favorite, Spencer Strider, and everyone else when it comes to the strikeouts leader market. Here is the top of the ATC projections page sorted by K's
Strider leads the projections derby by a whopping 33 K's over Gerrit Cole. He lapped the field in 2023 with 281 strikeouts, vs, Kevin Gausman with 237. The odds of course reflect that as Strider sits at +190 at DraftKings and +195 at FanDuel to take the crown. He likely wins the title in 2024 if he takes anywhere close to his full allotment of starts, so wagering on anyone else here necessarily assumes Strider misses at least a few turns. Who else might make sense as a relative longshot? Here are a couple of names.
Aaron Nola +4000 (FanDuel) (ATC 195 K's)
Nola tends to alternate up and down years, but the good news is that 2024 projects as Ace Nola by this very scientific metric. His durability remains remarkably consistent as he has turned in at least 32 starts and 180 IP in every full season since 2018, and has struck out at least 200 each time. He did drop to a 25.5% K% in 2023, his lowest since 2016, while his SwStrk% dipped to 11.8%, very near his career average. A modest K% spike coupled with a typical full season on the bump could get his K's into the 220's or 230's which gives him a puncher's chance at leading the K's race.
Corbin Burnes +2500 (FanDuel) (ATC 202 K's)
Burnes looks very similar to Nola, albeit with a higher career spike and a shorter track record. He does not miss starts and has posted 234, 243 and 200 strikeout seasons since 2021. Also like Nola, Burnes saw his K% dip to 25.5% in 2023 from 35.6% in his Cy Young 2021 season. Encouragingly, Burnes did get better as the season rolled on.
Burnes has an added variable in that he moves from the Brewers to the Orioles. It is a better team and a better home park overall but actually worse for pitcher strikeouts as per Todd Zola. Again though, we look to spike a "tail" event at these odds, and as with Nola, I am betting on a durable SP bumping up his K%.
