This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. I included essentially every hitter (107 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first five tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. The positions next to each player are the positions they are eligible at in the NFBC, not necessarily the positions they will play while in the majors this year.
Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 12 - Feb. 11 as well as my NFBC player shares from my four completed draft-and-hold teams (plus two other drafts that are ongoing).
Priced Out
Bobby Witt SS (ADP: 88.6, Shares 0/6)
With Witt, I can see a very clear path to him finishing as a top-200 player this year, and
The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. I included essentially every hitter (107 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team, so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out — chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first five tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. The positions next to each player are the positions they are eligible at in the NFBC, not necessarily the positions they will play while in the majors this year.
Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 12 - Feb. 11 as well as my NFBC player shares from my four completed draft-and-hold teams (plus two other drafts that are ongoing).
Priced Out
Bobby Witt SS (ADP: 88.6, Shares 0/6)
With Witt, I can see a very clear path to him finishing as a top-200 player this year, and it's possible he finishes as a top-50 player. However, I have zero interest at his current draft cost. Just looking at shortstops, Jorge Polanco (going five picks ahead of him) and Dansby Swanson (going 35 picks after him) are clearly preferable. If I took Witt, I'd be hoping for 20/20 with a .240 AVG -- that's a very optimistic projection, and the floor is that he ends up being a net negative.
Blue Chippers Who Will Be Up Soon
I broke this tier up into two groups, the first being players I think could be up very early in the season, the second being players who will probably spend at least a couple months in the minors but who could be very valuable once they are up. These are all top 25 prospects.
Adley Rutschman C (ADP: 203, Shares 0/6)
Oneil Cruz SS (ADP: 203, Shares 0/6)
Riley Greene OF (ADP: 304.2, Shares 4/5)
Josh Jung 3B (ADP: 286.7, Shares 1/5)
Josh Lowe OF (ADP: 388.6, Shares 1/5)
Spencer Torkelson 1B (ADP: 259.3, Shares 0/5)
-------------------------------------
Brennen Davis OF (ADP: 551, Shares 3/4)
Triston Casas 1B (ADP: 477.5, Shares 1/5)
Gabriel Moreno C (ADP: 469.5, Shares 0/4)
Julio Rodriguez OF (ADP: 266.9, Shares 1/5)
Proximity + Opportunity
With the exception of Joey Bart (something went really, really wrong if he's my second catcher), all of these players are on my draft board for draft and holds. As you can see from the player shares, I'm very interested in the Guardians and Pirates in this tier. I also like Kyle Isbel quite a bit, but I've been shut out on him thus far.
ROYALS
Kyle Isbel OF (ADP: 447, Shares 1/5)
PHILLIES
Bryson Stott SS (ADP: 427, Shares 0/5)
ASTROS
Jeremy Pena SS (ADP: 437.1, Shares 0/5)
GIANTS
Joey Bart C (ADP: 318.6, Shares 0/5)
GUARDIANS
Steven Kwan OF (ADP: 462.7, Shares 1/4)
Richie Palacios 2B (ADP: 738.6, Shares 2/4)
DIAMONDBACKS
Alek Thomas OF (ADP: 544.7, Shares 0/4)
Geraldo Perdomo SS (ADP: 663.6, Shares 0/4)
Seth Beer UT (ADP: 566.1, Shares 0/4)
PIRATES
Travis Swaggerty OF (ADP: 697, Shares 3/4)
Diego Castillo 2B (ADP: 728.9, Shares 1/4)
CARDINALS
Juan Yepez 1B (ADP: 465.7, Shares 0/4)
ROCKIES
Elehuris Montero 3B (ADP: 710.7, Shares 0/4)
Ryan Vilade OF (ADP: 718.2, Shares 1/4)
Proximity Without Opportunity
The path to playing time for these guys is murky, but an injury or a trade could open things up.
RAYS
Vidal Brujan OF (ADP: 317.7, Shares 0/5)
TWINS
Jose Miranda 3B (ADP: 395.1, Shares 1/5)
ROYALS
MJ Melendez C (ADP: 399.3, Shares 0/5)
WHITE SOX
Jake Burger 3B (ADP: 627.3, Shares 1/4)
CARDINALS
Nolan Gorman 2B (ADP: 470.2, Shares 0/4)
GUARDIANS
Gabriel Arias SS (ADP: 748.6, Shares 0/4)
Quality Long Shots
These players aren't close enough to debuting to stash in regular redraft leagues, and I'm not overly interested in taking them in draft-and-hold leagues. However, odds are at least one or two will generate some buzz as a FAAB add this summer.
ASTROS
Pedro Leon OF (ADP: 736.1, Shares 0/4)
TWINS
Austin Martin OF (ADP: 730.2, Shares 0/4)
Royce Lewis SS (ADP: 712.1, Shares 0/4)
DODGERS
Miguel Vargas 3B (ADP: 738.1, Shares 0/4)
Michael Busch 2B (ADP: 750, Shares 0/4)
BLUE JAYS
Jordan Groshans SS (ADP: 734, Shares 0/4)
METS
Mark Vientos 3B (ADP: 744.9, Shares 0/4)
RAYS
Jonathan Aranda 1B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
YANKEES
Oswald Peraza SS (ADP: 735.2, Shares 0/4)
GUARDIANS
Tyler Freeman 2B (ADP: 750.5, Shares 0/4)
ROYALS
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B (ADP: 701.2, Shares 0/4)
PADRES
CJ Abrams SS (ADP: 611, Shares 0/4)
Low Probability Depth Options
I'm not high on any of these guys from a talent/readiness/opportunity standpoint. That said, we will see many of them on big-league rosters throughout the season and inevitably a handful of them will provide value.
RED SOX
Jarren Duran OF (ADP: 360.8, Shares 0/4)
Jeter Downs SS (ADP: 722.4, Shares 0/4)
ATLANTA
Cristian Pache OF (ADP: 628, Shares 0/4)
Drew Waters OF (ADP: 714.6, Shares 0/4)
GUARDIANS
Nolan Jones 3B (ADP: 636.5, Shares 0/4)
Oscar Gonzalez OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
ROYALS
Nick Pratto 1B (ADP: 476.6, Shares 0/4)
PHILLIES
Matt Vierling OF (ADP: 515.4, Shares 0/4)
DIAMONDBACKS
Jake McCarthy OF (ADP: 703.6, Shares 0/4)
Stuart Fairchild OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Cooper Hummel OF (ADP: 728.2, Shares 0/4)
Drew Ellis 3B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
WHITE SOX
Romy Gonzalez 3B (ADP: 738.2, Shares 1/4)
Micker Adolfo OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
PIRATES
Rodolfo Castro 2B (ADP: 749.1, Shares 0/4)
Tucupita Marcano 2B (ADP: 736.5, Shares 0/4)
Canaan Smith-Njigba OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Mason Martin 1B (ADP: 750.1, Shares 0/4)
Cal Mitchell OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
ANGELS
Brendon Davis 3B (ADP: 749.4, Shares 0/4)
Michael Stefanic 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
GIANTS
Heliot Ramos OF (ADP: 714.3, Shares 0/4)
YANKEES
Oswaldo Cabrera 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Estevan Florial OF (ADP: 740.6, Shares 0/4)
TIGERS
Ryan Kreidler SS (ADP: 749.2, Shares 0/4)
CUBS
Alfonso Rivas OF (ADP: 750.3, Shares 0/4)
Nelson Velazquez OF (ADP: 744.1, Shares 0/4)
ORIOLES
Kyle Stowers OF (ADP: 750.8, Shares 0/4)
Jahmai Jones 2B (ADP: 747.1, Shares 0/4)
BLUE JAYS
Otto Lopez 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Kevin Smith 3B (ADP: 709.8, Shares 0/4)
Samad Taylor 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
ATHLETICS
Nick Allen SS (ADP: 749.4, Shares 0/4)
Cody Thomas OF (ADP: 749.2, Shares 0/4)
Luis Barrera OF (ADP: 747.3, Shares 0/4)
CARDINALS
Brendan Donovan 2B (ADP: 742.1, Shares 0/4)
Alec Burleson OF (ADP: 749.8, Shares 0/4)
METS
Khalil Lee OF (ADP: 749.6, Shares 0/4)
Nick Plummer OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Carlos Cortes OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Carlos Rincon OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
ROCKIES
Colton Welker 3B (ADP: 652.6, Shares 0/4)
DODGERS
Luke Raley OF (ADP: Undrafted , Shares 0/4)
Ryan Noda 1B (ADP: 749.6, Shares 0/4)
RANGERS
Sherten Apostel 1B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Zach Reks OF (ADP: 749.5, Shares 0/4)
Bubba Thompson OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
MARLINS
Peyton Burdick OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
JJ Bleday OF (ADP: 717.6, Shares 0/4)
BREWERS
Brice Turang SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
NATIONALS
Donovan Casey OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
REDS
Alejo Lopez 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
PADRES
Eguy Rosario SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Jorge Ona OF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
RAYS
Miles Mastrobuoni SS (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Esteban Quiroz 2B (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Catching Depth
These aren't catchers who are likely to play much this season, but injuries could open up playing time. Even with playing time, odds are they would not provide positive fantasy value as rookies.
Shea Langeliers C (ADP: 732.6, Shares 0/4)
Logan O'Hoppe C (ADP: 750.6, Shares 0/4)
Bryan Lavastida C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Korey Lee C (ADP: 748.3, Shares 0/4)
Luis Campusano C (ADP: 574.9, Shares 0/4)
Sam Huff 1B (ADP: 586.4, Shares 0/4)
Mario Feliciano C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
Miguel Amaya C (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/4)
