Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL Central

Last week we looked at the AL Central and for the next three weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2023 season. We're passing halfway home, as we look at the:

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will enter 2023 with a deeper pitching staff than they fielded in 2022. They added Jameson Taillon, who could end up being their No. 1 (with apologies to Marcus Stroman). I think Taillon could be a nice upgrade, but Stroman, a true groundball specialist, should love the Cubs' "up the middle" defense made up of Nico Hoerner at 2B, Dansby Swanson at SS and Cody Bellinger in CF. That's a lot of leather. The usually steady Kyle Hendricks fills the three spot and is actually pretty reliable, but soft-tossers like him can be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. The first three aren't bad, but I think my biggest concern would again be the last couple rotation slots. Justin Steele is the likely fourth starter (not horrible, but he needs to throw more strikes), while the final spot will go to Drew Smyly and/or Hayden Wesneski – neither of which generate much optimism, while Adrian Sampson is yet another option. Their top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, has potential upside, but he has yet to throw a pitch in pro ball.

This is again a major area of concern in my eyes. The Cubs have been collecting relievers, presumably looking for late-inning help and a closer. They have a lot of bodies, but none of them jump out at me as an end-gamer. Brandon Hughes probably did the best job last year. Trouble is, he didn't really look much like a closer. He has just fair stuff. Maybe he'll be back? So, who's his competition? Good question. Rowan Wick could again be a possibility, but he has to learn to throw strikes. Maybe Michael Fulmer who did some closing in Detroit, but he's better suited for a set-up role. Maybe they'll roll the dice with a newcomer like Brad Boxberger or Julian Merryweather. These guys all have a handful of career saves, but they have never really stuck in the role.

Recapping the Cubs:

The arm to roster: Taillon is their best SP, but he'll likely be full price on draft day.

He'll likely be overpriced: I expect some minor regression from Hendricks.

Best of the bullpen: Steer clear. This looks like a season-long merry-go-round.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds would like to believe the future is today, but their best kid pitchers are learning on the job, and the depth just isn't there. Big Hunter Greene deservedly gets a lot of ink. He has one of the biggest arms in baseball, and clearly has considerable potential, so while command of his secondary pitches can be spotty, and his fastball can be a bit straight, his chances of eventually being a true top of the rotation starter are bright. Interestingly, I actually like Nick Lodolo a bit better right now. He has a very good arm too, albeit not like Greene, and he is ahead of Greene in terms of development. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives, but I think the scales tip to the negative side. Cincinnati is going to war with a middle and back of the rotation including Graham Ashcraft who is mediocre, Luke Weaver who is perpetually banged up, and one (or more) of Luis Cessa, Chase Anderson or Connor Overton, all among the pretenders looking for a rotation spot. Pennants (and Roto titles) are made of better. Justin Dunn could return from the injured list late in the year, but call it way too little, way too late. 

The Reds' bullpen does have a promising arm in closer Alexis Diaz (Edwin's younger brother) who jumped right into the fire last summer. The biggest concern is the manager's willingness to use him earlier in undecided games. The problem is a lack of reliable depth leaving things unsettled behind Diaz entering 2023. Lucas Sims is probably the guy I like best on this staff after Diaz, and he could be pitching in the eighth inning this year. However, he is volatile to say the least. They recently re-signed Buck Farmer, who like Sims has good days and bad days. Add to the mix, Tony Santillan, Hunter Strickland, Reiver Sanmartin, and perhaps Tejay Antone around midseason. They all occasionally show flashes, but unfortunately it's only occasionally.

Recapping the Reds:

The arm to roster: Lodolo could be a nice price on draft day. He's on his way up.

He'll likely be overpriced: Ashcraft got some early attention in 2022 but I don't see it.

Best of the bullpen: I like Diaz a lot. He's for real but he's on a poor team.

Milwaukee Brewers – The beat goes on in Milwaukee where the top of the rotation looks top shelf, but there are question marks at the back. In some ways, the jury is still out on their arms, with two notable exceptions. Corbin Burnes was exemplary in 2022. I touted him heavily when he first came up, and it looks like he is establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. Brandon Woodruff has displayed considerable upside, too, with his well-developed repertoire, and took it to the next level with steadily improving command. Next up is Freddy Peralta. He has pitched well, but has only logged over 85 innings once (2021) because of various injuries. That is not a resounding endorsement. Southpaw Eric Lauer who has experienced ups and downs looks like the No. 4. He's strictly back-of-the-rotation, and I am skeptical he can match last year's numbers. Adrian Houser and Wade Miley figure to round out the rotation. The 36-year-old Miley logged just 37 innings with the Cubs, so he'll need to prove he can stay healthy. Houser serves as a decent insurance policy, but he missed time with elbow issues in 2022. Maybe they can get some useful innings out of Aaron Ashby when he returns from shoulder issues in May or June, and they also added Bryse Wilson who has flashed a little upside in the past. They need someone to step up.

Two names come to mind when discussing the Brewers' bullpen. Southpaw Josh Hader has been Superman in recent years, but he is now in San Diego, leaving ninth-inning duties to Devin Williams, who has displayed closer tools. He looks like a solid end gamer, but I don't see him at Hader's level. Matt Bush, Jake Cousins and eventually Justin Wilson will again probably share earlier inning set-up duties, but Wilson is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn't expected back until midseason.

Recapping the Brewers:

The arm to roster: Burnes has established himself as a top tier starting pitcher.

He'll likely be overpriced: Peralta is pretty fragile so include a Plan B.

Best of the bullpen: With Hader gone, Williams steps to the front of the line.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates have to hope young guys like Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller can eventually perform consistently more often if they want to say they have a top-of-the-rotation arm. Both have big arms and impressive minor league credentials, but their performance with the big club has been shaky due to frequent lapses in command. This is particularly true of Keller. I'm still inclined to give him time to get it all together, but until he does, he's very risky. Their No. 3 is likely to be the oldest player in MLB. Rich Hill will be 43 on Opening Day, and he can still pitch moderately well at times (when healthy). Now we delve into very fringy guys like JT Brubaker (slight edge) and Vince Velasquez, who will likely be Nos. 4 and 5 on this staff, but are actually swingmen or long relievers in my eyes. They offer little value in any but the deepest leagues. And, it gets worse. The depth of the rotation will comprise guys like Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo and/or Quinn Priester. They all have at least two things in common. They have very limited upside, and none of them will be on any of my fantasy rosters. It looks like a long season looming.

The Pirates' bullpen resembles the starting rotation in many ways – nobody really stands out except closer David Bednar. I'm a little surprised he is still there, and he will again be first in line for saves. They also have a so-so but certainly unspectacular support group including Wil Crowe, lefty Jarlin Garcia, Robert Stephenson and Chase De Jong, all of whom should see plenty of work behind that rotation. A final consideration would be a serious dark horse. Tahnaj Thomas caught my eye a couple years ago. He has a lively high 90s fastball and a good slider. They were trying to develop him as a starter, but he never found a reliable off-speed pitch. He just might have ninth-inning stuff.

Recapping the Pirates:

The arm to roster: Keller has upside, but he has to throw strikes in Pittsburgh.

He'll likely be overpriced: To be honest, I'll pass on all the rest. Just too risky.

Best of the bullpen: Bednar is adequate when healthy if he isn't dealt.

St. Louis Cardinals – We'll wrap up our analysis of the NL Central with a look at my pick to win the division. The team didn't add pitching this winter, but they didn't lose a lot either. Let's start with Jack Flaherty. His raw stuff is already dominating, and you can throw out his 2022 numbers (I hope). He suffered shoulder woes last year that are reportedly behind him. Bottom line, if he's at full health, he's an ace, and I think the best is yet to come. I think most likely No. 2 will be southpaw Jordan Montgomery. He made several starts last year after coming over from the Yankees and he really helped solidify the rotation. He's not a big strikeout guy, but he throws quality strikes and I'll take that. Now, let's check in on two quality arms that define that winning approach. Miles Mikolas showed some true tenacity after returning from Japan in 2018. He suffered some flexor tendon woes in 2019-21, but he bounced back in a big way last season. He fills the strike zone with a variety of quality pitches. The graybeard of the staff who will turn 42 in August is Adam Wainwright. He doesn't have the tools he once had, but he is a master of the art – both pitching and winning – and he has made all the right adjustments, so don't overlook him in his farewell season. The five spot should be the property of either Steven Matz, the versatile Dakota Hudson, or eventually the young Matthew Liberatore. I actually like Liberatore best long-term as Matz struggles to stay healthy, and Hudson is better-suited to long relief.

I don't think the question is who will close for the Cardinals long term. I'm reasonably certain that gig will belong to Ryan Helsley, but if anything happens to him, who takes the reins? The list of options is long and pretty distinguished. Top of the list is Jordan Hicks who would be closing for most teams. His high-octane stuff is filthy. Genesis Cabrera and Giovanny Gallegos will again share set-up duties, and, there's also a capable array of support arms including swingman Jake Woodford, Andre Pallante, Zach Thompson and flame-throwing Rule-5 signee Wilking Rodriguez. This is a very deep and talented bullpen.

Recapping the Cardinals: 

The arm to roster: Flaherty probably won't be cheap, but he'll be worth the price.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm avoiding the Matz/Hudson rotation filler.

Best of the bullpen: Helsley looks like the closer, but Hicks intrigues me.

Next week we'll look at the AL East.