Mound Musings: Endgame Odyssey – American League

We have passed Opening Day. Almost every pitcher is still on the watch list. It has been difficult watching all the live baseball I want to see, but there is still work to be done. Most leagues have already completed their drafts. Others will be happening soon, but draft day is just the beginning of a fantasy season, and no place will likely offer more opportunities to profit than the bullpens.

Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season was challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with bridging the game to the closer. By now, most roles would be fairly well defined. This year, perhaps more than ever, is different. Managing workloads could mean expanded rotations, shorter outings, occasional skipped turns and certainly a heavier reliance on bullpens, and that's our focus for this week.

The bottom line: The better teams (usually), with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantasy statistics. Ideally, you could fill your staff with pitchers from better teams with the depth to maintain generally static roles for their bullpen arms. Unfortunately, those guys tend to be expensive on draft day and almost never appear on the waiver wire. That said, we need to look at some teams, in what seems like turmoil, to hopefully find some bullpen value. This week we'll focus on the American League. Next week it's the National League's turn.

Let's review some AL bullpens with question marks as we dive into the 2024 season:

Mariners – We'll start with one I thought was pretty cut and dry. Paul Sewald is now in Arizona leaving big-armed Andres Munoz the obvious choice to finish games. Heading into 2024, Matt Brash was the obvious choice to serve as the key set-up guy and Munoz's caddy. It hasn't been that simple – yet. Brash was injured and hasn't pitched in 2024. They brought in a capable power arm, Ryne Stanek, to pair with lefty set-up guy Gabe Speier. We're back on track. Munoz recorded the first save, registering four outs including three strikeouts. Then things got a bit cloudy. Next save spot, Munoz entered in the eighth inning while Stanek logged the save. It worked, but it wasn't textbook, so what happened? As best I can tell, this was a "matchup" decision, which seems to be becoming more popular. Munoz faced the heart of the order in the eighth while Stanek matched up with the bottom of the order. I think the decision can be different based on the perceived capabilities of the two pitchers. If Brash had been available, the M's may have opted for a more traditional approach.

Tigers – Are the Tigers engaged in the matchup endgame? It might be a little early, but I don't think so. It looks to me like they are having a spirited competition for the closer's gig. They have a pair of flamethrowers who can miss bats and the strike zone. Both potential closers, Jason Foley and Alex Lange, have notched saves in the early season. I really thought Lange would begin the year with the job after saving 26 games in 2023, but Foley is clearly in the mix, too (he had seven saves and 28 holds last year). Lange's Achilles heel is a frequent inability to locate the strike zone – he walked 45 in 66 innings last year. It looks like the Tigers want to see if Foley can cut down on the free passes. Personally, I'd prefer Lange figure out how to throw strikes. Foley can get a little straight at times while Lange features a lot of movement. They also have a relatively competent bridge crew with Shelby Miller and Will Vest from the right side, and Andrew Chafin on the left side, but Lange and Foley should see the tiger's share of saves.

Rangers – Texas claims to have its closer, but I'm not totally convinced. However, I'm not seeing anyone who solidly profiles as the guy to go to if Jose Leclerc stumbles as he has in the past. Leclerc has closer tools but seems to lack the closer's instincts. He generally pitches well until asked to hold a lead in the ninth, and that is a monumental problem. David Robertson has made a career out of serving as an insurance policy and he capitalized on another opportunity last year, saving 18 games (but in 24 chances). He's just not for me. If those guys stumble, perhaps the auditions begin all over again, led by the current hot hand, Jose Urena. But the guy I'm interested in is veteran Kirby Yates. He looked like a coming reliable closer a few years ago (he saved 41 games for San Diego in 2019), before injuries set in. He was able to toss 60 innings last season, and has looked fairly sharp so far in 2024 so maybe he'll get a look again.

Orioles – Like Texas, the O's claim to have their closer but like the Rangers, there is lingering doubt. Craig Kimbrel is quite possibly a Hall-of-Famer, but what if he stumbles as he has in the recent past? The 35-year-old Kimbrel doesn't have the stuff he once had, so his reliability can occasionally come into question. He's likely a one-year bandage while their real closer, Felix Bautista, recovers from Tommy John surgery. We probably won't see him until next year. Kimbrel's primary caddy is a competent Yennier Cano who might actually be a slightly better option, and I expect him to collect at least a few saves in 2024. Behind them, Danny Coulombe and Dillon Tate are adequate set-up guys, but neither of them profiles as a long-term closing option.

Athletics – The A's clean house pretty regularly in the offseason (they probably aren't done), and they left the cupboard pretty bare, including their bullpen this spring. The most popular candidate to close games is Dany Jimenez, but he's more of a set-up guy who might get a chance. He doesn't profile as a closer in my eyes. The most likely internal option is probably former starter Mason Miller. A once somewhat promising youngster who couldn't throw strikes, he's now a reliever who can't throw strikes. Given a severe lack of standout alternatives, maybe we can consider a converted infielder who might be more comfortable in a relief pitching role. Lucas Erceg has just 58 pro innings on the mound but he has a very lively arm, or Austin Adams is perhaps a longshot to consider. They are not likely, but not impossible.

Royals – We could be witnessing a changing of the guard in the Kansas City bullpen. They brought in southpaw Will Smith, presumably to handle the ninth inning, but after he ran into trouble a couple times, he was pulled from a save situation. Enter top set-up man James McArthur. Unfortunately, he has also struggled this year, but the Royals need him finishing games, and he has the tools to be reasonably good at it. I know teams generally prefer defined roles, but their best bet may be a shared closer's gig with the lefty Smith and the righty McArthur. Others, like lefty Josh Taylor and righty John Schreiber are useful pieces, but they are not closers. I like Chris Stratton a bit, but he has been miscast as a closer at times, although he could serve as a fill-in. Finally, Carlos Hernandez is another consideration, but if you put my feet to the fire, I think you need to own both McArthur and Smith for the immediate future.

White Sox – We see teams in a "rebuilding mode" all the time. It's not unusual for them to trade away more expensive/experienced arms, but the White Sox took that to a whole new level this year. Young, old, talented, talent-less, it didn't appear to matter – off you go to a new home. When the dust settled, there was literally no one who even vaguely resembled a closer. That may have changed a bit today. Michael Kopech might have washed out as a starter, so he is getting a look as a potential closer. Tell me if you've heard this before – "very live arm with electric stuff, but he can't be relied upon to throw strikes." That would more or less be Mr. Kopech. His fastball can be a bit straight but he can hit triple digits, and the strike zone moves around on him – a lot. If he can throw strikes, he can close, but that's a big if. If he flops, I'm pretty much at a loss. I suppose Jordan Leasure is a possibility. Bryan Shaw and Dominic Leone at least have some experience, but I don't see it. They have a couple nice kids on the way in Noah Schultz and Drew Thorpe. Maybe they would consider breaking them in with bullpen innings?

These aren't all the questions by any means, but they are some situations to watch. As always, we'll keep tabs on possible bullpen adjustments throughout the season in the Endgame Odyssey section of the Musings, but for now, there are some thoughts on the American League. We'll check in on the National League next week.