NFBC Main Event Fades

Last week Scott Jenstad, Chris Liss and I participated in a different sort of Daily Draft on our SiriusXM show than our other daily drafts. Instead of picking an all-time team, or even best or worst draft picks, we decided to do something a little more NFBC-centric. And aside from maybe our Periodic Table Elements draft, and the Authors/Artistis/Composers draft, this is also the most subjective draft we've done. And yet, it's the most fantasy relevant "daily draft" that we've done. We each selected NFBC Main Event "fades" - players that if we have a Main Event draft later this year, we won't select at their current ADP - from 4/1 through the present, to account for the most recent news.

The great thing about this draft is that there's no obvious first pick. The market has already spoken, so everyone is already "rated." We personally disagree with where the players are going, but we're not saying that these players are bad players. We also made sure not to do anything cheesy like saying we're not taking Noah Syndergaard now that he's out for the season, either. We also agreed to make sure to keep it among the top-300 players in ADP - i.e. the top 20 rounds of the Main - which would me players that would be starters.

I'll list the results here, and then add a brief comment about my fades after the picks.

Results By Team:

Each team had to draft six hitters and four pitchers, to mirror the ratio of hitters/pitchers on an active roster. Here are my picks

1. Mallex Smith (ADP: 186) - If you've been listening to me at all, you know that I structure my teams to avoid players like Smith (and Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Tim Locastro) - players that only help you in the stolen base category and actively hurt you in the power categories. Smith needs to drop to around 275 or so before I'd consider him.

2. Craig Kimbrel (ADP: 148) - I understand the logic on buying low on Kimbrel, and pick 148 is buying low based on his career history and likely job security. But the troubles started for Kimbrel in 2018, before his long contract layoff. The walk rate is way too high for my liking, and the fastball MPH is dropping along with his chase rate. There are plenty of other closers I'd take before Kimbrel in this range.

3. Blake Snell (ADP: 48) - I was already behind the market on Snell before he was briefly shut down in spring training with elbow discomfort. For a pitcher to be my ace or SP2, I want a lot more health certainty, and between the spring cortisone shot and last year's surgery to remove loose bodies in the elbow, I'm not there.

4. Gary Sanchez (ADP: 77) - In the 15-team Main Event, I really don't want to take a catcher this early, especially when it comes with a definite drag on my batting average. It's great to get a pro-rated share of 30 homers from your catcher, but not when .200 is in the range of outcomes.

5. Scott Kingery (ADP: 150) - I get the appeal of Kingery - multiple positions, possible 20-20 guy. But he's another likely drag on your batting average, especially when the premise of him providing value is "... if only he can cut back on his strikeouts...." If it were that easy, every player would do it. Kingery didn't show signs of doing so late last year or in spring training (11 Ks in 31 AB's). He's also likely to be hitting seventh or eighth in the order.

6. Nick Madrigal (ADP: 289) - This was a bit of a controversial selection, but I don't think that Madrigal will be able to hit at the big league level. I love his batting eye and speed, but his utter lack of power will encourage big league pitchers to challenge him more, and I suspect that great BB:K ratio won't translate. Plus, if/when he gets the call, he's probably going to be batting ninth for the White Sox. He doesn't have the same deal that both Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez signed to remove service time as a concern, either, so that could delay his call-up.

7. Anthony Rizzo (ADP: 67) - If I had to re-do a pick, it would be this one. Rizzo's price is actually pretty reasonable, and is a decent building block pick. I don't like his Statcast metrics or the back injury he dealt with last year, which is why I've been avoiding him. But it's true that he no longer carries the same draft cost, so I probably could have found a better fade.

8. Robbie Ray (ADP: 153) - When I was on the "Fact-or-Fluke" panel at First Pitch Arizona I was asked to choose between Ray and Matthew Boyd (ADP: 156), and before I did the research I thought I'd choose Ray, but instead it became a pretty easy choice for Boyd. Ray had an 11.2 BB% last year, has seen his velocity drop two years running and gives up a slew of homers. The strikeouts are great, but he's a WHIP-killer.

9. Shohei Ohtani (ADP: 115) - Ironically, I'd be more inclined to draft Ohtani if the Angels decided not to use him as a pitcher this year. The NFBC rule is that you can use Ohtani either as a hitter or pitcher at the start of the week, not both - there are no daily moves, and you can't start the week as a hitter and then move him with the mid-week moves to a pitcher, thus removing the value of his flexibility. In real life I'm rooting for him and think he's awesome, but in this format there's too much of a chance to get whipsawed.

10. Luke Weaver (ADP: 195) - Weaver was good in a small sample before he got hurt, but (a) I need him to be good for a longer stretch to buy in, (b) don't count on him to remain healthy and (c) have my projection about 100 points below where he goes. Easy fade for me.

What did you think about the results of the draft? Who are your fades (with current ADP) if you end up playing the NFBC Main Event?