Oak's Corner: A Controversial Sell on Robles

The Week That Was

I haven't targeted Nomar Mazara the last couple of years in drafts as I thought he was a touch over drafted for the stat line he provided. His stats have been solid for how young he is (still just 24), but the 20 homers each year and a decent batting average haven't shown me much upside compared to the other outfielders that typically get drafted in his range. So far this season, he has started slowly from a batting average angle, hitting only .224 through his first 135 plate appearances but he has shown some pop with six homers. With the increased power he's showing, Mazara is also striking out less so far, currently sporting a 16.8 percent strikeout rate after a 21.6 percent rate last season.

Mazara's hard contact profile is very intriguing, as he currently has a hard contact rate of 44.4 percent after a career high 37.5 percent rate last year. He's also hitting more barrels this season with a 11.1 barrel percentage after a 8.5 percent mark last year. Even more positive is that he has taken a step up in his hard rate each of his four seasons in the majors. His fly ball rate is low at 30.3 percent, but it's up four percent from 2018, and if he could bump it up a bit more, paired with his new hard contact levels and his home park, he could break through that 20 homer plateau in a pretty big way. While he is striking out less and hitting the ball harder, the batting average is still low, which can partially be attributed to a .237 BABIP, which is a good amount below his career .292 rate. If the improvements to his profile in 2019 can stick, the batting average is going to rise and he is going to easily set a career high in homers. His low batting average has presented a nice opportunity to try and grab Mazara in a trade right now before the Texas summer comes along. I would do so quickly as a hot streak is nearing.

Victor Robles is only 21 and obviously extremely talented. I wouldn't trade him in a keeper league, but in a single season league, he's a huge sell high for me right now. He has a very nice stat line so far with a .259 average, six homers and nine stolen bases through the first quarter of the season. As I look closer at his overall profile though, I see a lot of things to be concerned about with Robles at the moment. My first concern is his ugly strikeout and walk numbers, as he's striking out at a 28.3 percent clip, while only walking 3.4 percent of the time. At some point, pitchers are going to adjust to that extreme a profile, and he's going to have to see less pitches to hit.

My bigger concern is his utter lack of hard contact, and that's no exaggeration as Robles is actually dead last in the entire league with a 21.9 percent hard contact rate, right behind noted sluggers Jose Peraza and Billy Hamilton. Sure, hard hit rate is just one stat, but it has to stick out when it puts him at that extreme a level. When one looks at exit velocity, it tells the same story, as his 78.9 mph average exit velocity is the third worst among all regulars in MLB. The stolen bases do create a nice fantasy floor for Robles when the struggles I'm positive are coming do arrive, especially in a time when stolen bases can be difficult to find. Robles has great power/speed stats so far and a huge prospect name. Many times fantasy analysts talk about selling high on players, and that player is often someone for whom other teams will already be wary of trading, but I think Robles presents a legit chance to really cash in, and I'd do so now before some of his secondary stats catch up with his fantasy line.

There isn't much reason to break down much about Mike Trout, but as I was doing some research this week, I came across the fact that Trout, clearly a hitter with a lot of pop, has an insane 3.2 percent swinging strike rate on the season so far, a number only surpassed by his teammate David Fletcher. That is just nuts.

FAAB Feelings

Hunter Pence. Admittedly, Pence looked done as a fantasy play over the last few seasons as he hasn't topped 13 homers since 2014. It's only been 22 games, but Pence looks like a different player in every way so far in his first campaign with the Rangers. Pence already has six homers, including one in each of his last three games, which tops the four he hit over 248 plate appearances in 2018. A closer look at Pence's numbers shows a ton of improvements from his last few seasons, as he's striking out less with a 16.4 percent strikeout rate after a 23.8 percent rate last year. Pence is also walking at an 11 percent clip, which would be the highest of his career. His hard contact so far is also wildly high at 50.9 percent, and the highest rate of his career was 35.2 percent in his 2015 season with the Giants.

His Statcast data supports the hard contact, as his average exit velocity of 93 mph, surprisingly, puts him in the top 20 in baseball so far through the first six weeks. It's hard to imagine Pence keeps up this level of raking considering his past few seasons, but I'm fully riding the hot streak, and the Rangers appeared to have taken notice, as his playing time should increase a bit with the demotion of Delino DeShields Jr. to Triple-A. In the NFBC 15-team Main Event, people have started to take notice, but Pence is still available in 54 percent of leagues, and in the 12-team leagues, Pence is only owned in two percent of them. He's not going to save your team but he is currently crushing the ball and plays in a great home park. It won't take a big bid to get him, but I'm looking to ride the hot streak while monitoring his batted ball profile and will have no problem cutting bait if and when he reverts to his prior few years.

Wilmer Flores. Flores is a guy I liked coming into drafts this season, as he appeared to be set for full-time at-bats for the first time in his career, and he was also very likely to become multiposition eligible rapidly, and he has since added second base to his first base eligibility. Flores has started pretty slowly, with only two homers through his first 33 games, but he has warmed up lately, as after two more hits on Thursday, he now has seven multihit games in his last nine starts. His slow start caused him to be dropped in a number of leagues; he's down to 71 percent owned in NFBC 15-team leagues and a mere nine percent in NFBC 12-team leagues.

Flores has shown some pop in the past with 18 homers in 362 plate appearances in 2017 and 16 homers in 335 plate appearances in 2016, but what I like about Flores is the consistent batting average floor he has shown. Including this year to date, Flores has hit between .263 and .278 in each of the last five seasons. While those numbers don't jump off the page, a lack of batting average downside with a guy who has shown some home run power carries a good amount of value with it. He dropped his strikeout rate under 10 percent last season, and he has maintained the contact improvement with a 9.4 percent so far this year. His hard hit rate doesn't jump off the page at 34 percent, but his HR/FB rate should increase from his current 5.7 percent, boosting Flores' homers as the season progresses. He isn't going to win a league, but with the ability to use him as a middle infielder or a corner infielder plus his batting average floor, he's for sure an add for me where he was dropped in 15-teamers, and if I need an extra infielder in a 12-teamer, I think he'll be an asset there, too, which is not very easy to find among players who are nine percent owned.

A Closer Look

As someone who drafted Jose Alvarado as my second closer in an important league, I did so with the knowledge that the Rays would likely move him around based on some high-leverage spots, but I also thought after the dust settled, he would get a majority of the saves in the Rays bullpen. After he racked up four saves in the first 10 days of the season, I felt that I had fallen into an even bigger share of the Rays ninth innings than I bargained for and felt great about the pick. Incredibly, Alvarado hasn't been given a single save chance since April 7, as the Rays went from using him like an old school closer to not even allowing him to be part of the committee in the ninth inning. He even went through a recent 10-day stretch where he pitched once, all of this despite a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings. The walks has been a bit of an issue, as he has eight already, but he has been dominant otherwise with 23 strikeouts and only eight hits allowed. He has also pushed up his swinging strike rate to 15.3 percent, with many of his throws ending up as nasty GIFs on Twitter for the extreme movement he possesses at a very high velocity.

Since Alvarado locked up four of the first five Rays saves, the subsequent Rays ninth-inning save opportunities have been split between Diego Castillo and Emilio Pagan. Castillo has been excellent in his own right with a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings, and looks like the Rays bullpen arm to own right now locking down the last two saves for the team. Pagan, who had three saves in one week has also been lights out with a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings with 13 strikeouts and only one walk. It looks like Alvarado is the victim (in the fantasy world) of being the one left-handed arm of the three who they also like to use in higher leverage spots, but he also happens to have two other guys in the same pen pitching so well that they have earned the trust of their manager. I still think Alvarado figures in the mix, and it's a long season, but I am quite worried about him from a fantasy angle, as no saves in a month just kills a team, no matter how good the ratios may be. If I had to make a bet right now, I'd actually take Castillo to lead the Rays in saves, a bet I'd love to lose as the Alvarado owner.

Series of the Weekend

Brewers at Cubs. These two teams not only come into this series with the second and third best records in the National League, but they also come in straight up on fire. The Brewers have won six games in a row, and the Cubs have won three straight and 10 of their last 11 games. The Cubs have been especially impressive, sporting the best run differential in the National League with the second most runs scored and the third best team ERA.

On Sunday at Wrigley, Jon Lester takes the hill and brings along with him a league-leading 1.41 ERA through six starts. After a 2018 where he posted a 3.32 ERA, but with metrics that seemed to show he was both slipping and lucky, he fell way down in drafts. He has been huge for fantasy teams, but how real is his season so far? Surprisingly, after a 2018 where his strikeout rate crashed to 7.4 K/9, he has ramped that number up to 9.3 K/9, which would be his highest mark in a season since all the way back in 2010 with the Red Sox. Further, he has dropped his walk rate below 2.00 BB/9 after it was more than 3.00 BB/9, which was his worst rate since 2011. Granted, his 90.3 percent strand rate and .267 BABIP have helped and won't stay there all year, but he has also been a much better pitcher so far than he was in 2018.

Lester's fastball velocity is down even more to 90.1 mph, but he's also throwing it less than he ever has at 42.5 percent, and throwing more cutters. Maybe that pitch mix has given him the boost he needed. On the negative side, his swinging strike rate hasn't improved at all from 2018 at 8.6 percent, and he has an elevated hard hit rate at 40.4 percent. In addition, his exit velocity of 88.4 mph is the highest it has been in the Statcast Era, as is his barrel percentage allowed of 10.1 percent. So, while he has really improved the strikeout and walks, the swinging strike rate and velocity drop has me questioning the early results, and if the hard hit rate and Statcast numbers don't improve, he's in for some rough outings, and soon. If anyone in your league is buying into the hot start, I would certainly look to sell him now.

On the Brewers side, we all know about Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and the rest of their offense, and while they have struggled overall on the pitching side with a 4.58 team ERA, the one guy I'm very high on right now is Brandon Woodruff. He struggled early on with a 5.81 ERA through his first five starts, but he has turned it on lately with only three runs allowed in his last three outings. He has ramped up his strikeout rate to 11.5 K/9 while also jacking up his swinging strike rate to 11.7 percent. After a few too many walks early, he has only walked a total of three batters over his last three starts, spanning 15 innings.

The one concern on Woodruff is his batted ball profile, as he has allowed a 44.2 percent hard hit rate while also allowing 27.9 percent line drives. In a park like Miller Park where the ball jumps anyway, that is a definite worry, but his contact profile was good in his first two quick stints in Milwaukee, so I'm hoping he reverts back to those numbers. It's probably been one good start too many now to buy Woodruff, but with an ERA of 4.25 with a FIP of 2.87, I'd still make an offer now and see if you can grab him and all the win potential with the powerful Brewers offense behind him.

This series should be a lot of fun, and Wrigley is also a perfect backdrop to watch a game on TV. I anticipate a lot of offense there this weekend.