This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
Since we are just about right at the halfway point of the season for most, I was going to do a Midseason All Stars or Midseason All Value Team, but I figured it might be more helpful if I looked at underperforming or under the radar players to identify one guy at each position I think is going to come on or break out in the second half, making him either a trade target or someone to grab now in free agency. I hope everyone has had a great first half and that you're in contention in your leagues, but if not, hopefully some names here may help you get back into contention or, if you're in the mix, help you grab a league title. I tried to pick a mix of guys of which some are clearly owned but could be traded for, while some might be on your waiver wire or could be acquired on the cheap.
Also, a strong reminder as we hit summer and vacations and fantasy football chatter just about everywhere, this is the time to grind hard on your baseball teams. I've already noticed bidding slowing down in some of my leagues. This is a long-term game we play, and while it may seem like the season has been going on forever, it's only the halfway point, and you can still make up a ton of ground on the teams in front of you. If you are leading, keep that foot on the gas
Since we are just about right at the halfway point of the season for most, I was going to do a Midseason All Stars or Midseason All Value Team, but I figured it might be more helpful if I looked at underperforming or under the radar players to identify one guy at each position I think is going to come on or break out in the second half, making him either a trade target or someone to grab now in free agency. I hope everyone has had a great first half and that you're in contention in your leagues, but if not, hopefully some names here may help you get back into contention or, if you're in the mix, help you grab a league title. I tried to pick a mix of guys of which some are clearly owned but could be traded for, while some might be on your waiver wire or could be acquired on the cheap.
Also, a strong reminder as we hit summer and vacations and fantasy football chatter just about everywhere, this is the time to grind hard on your baseball teams. I've already noticed bidding slowing down in some of my leagues. This is a long-term game we play, and while it may seem like the season has been going on forever, it's only the halfway point, and you can still make up a ton of ground on the teams in front of you. If you are leading, keep that foot on the gas pedal, as other teams are coming, and we have seen how quickly injuries can come, so always be maximizing your lineup and building depth.
Catcher: Francisco Mejia. I think the time is finally here for this hyped prospect to become a fantasy value, and I actually added him last week in 15-teamers where he was available. Mejia still can be picked up in many leagues, as he is only owned in 76 percent of the NFBC 15-team Main Events and only 38 percent of their 12-team contests. Since his recall on June 17, Mejia has been used more often than Austin Hedges, getting six starts in that stretch and responding with two homers in those starts. Perhaps even more important for Mejia's playing time is the fact that Hedges has been terrible offensively all season. Hedges is hitting .191 in 193 plate appearances with only six homers and an elevated strikeout rate of 32.1 percent. Now, Hedges is still going to play due to his strong defense at a very important spot, but his struggles at the plate and Mejia's upside are going to give him a bunch of playing time at a fantasy position where we don't need everyday at bats to have value.
Mejia was a very popular prospect in the Indians system after a 50-game hitting streak in Single-A in 2016 and then hitting .297 with 14 homers in Double-A in 2017. He was the main trade chip in the acquisition of Brand Hand at the trading deadline in 2018. Mejia has had a rough time in all three of his quick trips to the major leagues but did manage to hit .365 in 18 Triple-A games with four homers this year before his recall, and while he has had issues with strikeouts in his major leagues cups of coffee, his strikeout rate has been under 20 percent in all of his minor league stints, and I believe that will eventually transfer as he gets comfortable. The talent is clearly there, and at 23, the time is now for the Padres to give him a good run of playing time as they prepare to have him as their main catcher as they look to fully compete in 2020 and beyond. It's very tough to find any backstops of value on the waiver wire in two catcher leagues, and if he's still on yours, I would grab Mejia now.
First Base: Justin Smoak. Smoak's 2019 looks very similar to 2018 on the surface, but I think a nice run is coming for Smoak, and the time is now to snag him on the cheap. Smoak is currently on the injured list for a quad injury, but he ran the bases Wednesday with no issues and should be back soon, maybe as soon as Friday. He has even started to get dropped in some leagues, as he's only currently owned in 82 percent of the NFBC 12-team contests. Smoak does have 12 homers but is hitting a mere .225 and has only scored 29 runs.
The key to Smoak's big breakout in 2017 was the large drop in strikeout rate to 20.1 percent, but it went back up in 2018. Despite the poor average this year, the Ks are down again to 18 percent. At the same time, he's still walking a ton at 16.5 percent. His hard hit rate has been fantastic so far in 2019 at a career-high 45.5 percent, and if that stays anywhere near those heights, his BABIP is going to come up from its current career-low of .232 closer to his career average of .268. The fly balls are still really good too at 43.7 percent, and the home runs will come too while the average rises. As for the counting stats, his sneaky value right now is that there is a decent chance he gets moved to a contender at the deadline and could find himself in the middle of a really good lineup for the final two months.
Second Base: Brian Dozier. I liked Dozier a lot coming into this season off the rough 2018, but his 2019 started really poorly as he hit .184 with a 28.7 percent strikeout rate in April. He has started to turn it around this month, hitting .277 with five homers in June, while dropping the K rate more around his usual norms at 21.1 percent. The rough start has hidden some of the recent progress, as he still is sitting at only a .227 average through his first half in a Nationals uniform. I have seen a few Dozier drops in leagues, but the recent streak hasn't allowed him to stay on any waiver wires for too long, however I still think he can be acquired for a discounted price, especially with Howie Kendrick hitting well and threatening Dozier's playing time a bit.
The Nats are finally getting healthy and should score a good amount of runs in the second half, which will assist Dozier in the counting stats. Most importantly, Dozier is hitting the ball hard with a career-high 40.8 percent hard hit rate and an average exit velocity that is his highest in the five years since Statcast started keeping the stat. He has had multiple second half surges in his career, and while I don't think we will get quite the Dozier second half explosion we have had in the past; it's going to be good and worth whatever it takes to trade for him at the moment.
(On a side note, since we're talking second base, I would do whatever I could to buy Jose Altuve at a discount right now, as he sits with a BABIP 75 points below his career average, all while posting a career-high hard hit rate).
Third Base: Justin Turner. Turner is probably a tough guy to get a really good price on since he's on the best team in baseball and still hitting .300, but with only eight homers and 31 RBI, I do think a much better fantasy second half is on its way. Turner is striking out a little bit more than the last two years, but is still a very strong contact guy with a 15 percent strikeout rate. The batted ball data gets me very excited about Turner's second half, as he currently sits at an 52.1 percent hard hit rate, which puts him behind only MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. In addition, his average exit velocity of 91.3 mph is the highest of his career, and his .317 xBA is the fifth best in baseball.
His fly ball rate is only 37.4 percent after marks in the mid to high 40s in the past two seasons, which is capping his homers, but I would lean to him moving toward his rates of the past two years, which should bring the homers with it because of how hard he's hitting the ball. Just to add to the evidence on his elite hard contact, he also currently ranks sixth in baseball with a 28.8 percent line drive rate. Everything about Turner looks good for a big second half with the only concern being the Dodgers resting guys in September as they will have nothing to play for, but I don't think he will sit enough games to really impact his season in a significant way. In a year with a ton of homers, if you can find a way to buy Turner at a bit of a discount due to his lack of homers, I would pull the trigger on it right away.
Shortstop: Enrique Hernandez. After a nice start to the season where he hit .258 with six homers in April, Hernandez has struggled in a big way over the last two months, hitting .183 with only seven homers and 15 runs scored. His playing time has dipped a bit as he has struggled, although the injury to Corey Seager helped eliminate that issue a bit this month. Due to his recent slump, Hernandez has started to get dropped in some 12-teamers. He's down to 73 percent owned there heading into this weekend. Prior to looking at his profile, I love the multipositional eligibility at second, short and the outfield, as he can be a perfect backup middle infielder as he covers both spots and can also fill in the outfield if you happen to suffer a few injuries there during the week.
During his rough two months, Hernandez hasn't struck out any more than he did early on in the season, and his hard contact is still really good at a career-high 45.6 percent. He has been over 43 percent in each month, even as the batting average has crashed. I think the average is coming back as long as the hard contact remains, and with 13 homers already from a middle infielder, he is going to help a lot there, too. The counting categories should be fine too in a great lineup, but the one concern is the Dodgers' depth, especially when Seager and A.J. Pollock return, but injuries happen, and his versatility helps him find ways in the lineup, too. If he was dropped in your league, I would certainly add him and, if not, I would try and snag him on the cheap.
Outfielder: Bryce Harper. Oh Bryce, you and I have a complicated history, but hitting .246 with 14 homers at the halfway point is just the dead perfect time to trade for Harper. The elevated 27.8 percent strikeout rate is a concern, but after punching out at a near 30 percent clip for the first two months, Harper has settled in with his new team and has dropped his K rate to 21.2 percent so far in June. He's still walking at his usual excellent clip, but if he has the strikeouts under control, the batting average is going to bounce back, as he has no issues right now with hard contact at a 44.7 percent rate. His average exit velocity is also excellent at 92.2 mph, which places him in the top 20 in baseball. I think it all comes down to the strikeouts, and if he can just avoid that wild spike he had early on, he's going to rake as the weather warms up in his home park. I think we get a 20-homer second half with a solid batting average. Act now on Harper before it's too late, because the white hot streak is coming.
Starting Pitcher: Jack Flaherty. Flaherty was as hyped as they come in the spring as he moved up to a mid-fourth round pick in 15-team leagues. He has been a huge disappointment with a 4.75 ERA through his first 16 starts. The biggest issue hurting Flaherty so far is the home run ball, as he has surrendered 18 homers already after allowing only 20 all last season in 151 innings. His strikeouts are a bit down at 9.9 K/9, but his walks, which were an issue at 3.5 BB/9 in 2018, have dropped to 2.9 BB/9 this year.
On the plus side, his velocity is up nearly a full mile per hour at 93.6 mph, and while he's throwing his slider harder, it's currently a negative pitch for him per Fangraphs' pitch ratings, after it was a strong plus pitch for him in 2018. This buy low takes a bit of a leap of faith, as the homers and his 41.5 percent hard hit rate are a legit concern, but after he got blasted by the A's on Tuesday night, I just don't think the price will get any lower, as he has now allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts. We aren't going to get the fourth-round numbers out of him, but I think he's too talented, and I like the drop in walks and with the 12.6 percent swinging strike rate, he clearly still has his stuff and is throwing it harder than ever. The current price is the most appealing thing on Flaherty and I would jump to add him now on a low and enjoy a better second half.
Closer: Taylor Rogers. Closers are tough to buy low on, as you usually have to pay a lot since saves are gold, and anyone with a job carries that save value. The Twins have a bit of a messy committee, but Rogers has emerged as the leader of that committee, as he's responsible for four of the last five Twins saves. He's the lefty in the committee, so that can lead to some spots where they may use him unlike a traditional closer, but, to his benefit, he has shown he can go more than an inning if needed, which mutes some of the issue by being used in the eighth.
What I like most about Rogers right now is just how much better he has pitched than both Trevor May and Blake Parker. Through 35.1 innings, he has a 2.04 ERA and that comes on the heels of an excellent 2018 when he posted a 2.63 ERA in 68.1 innings. He has upped his strikeouts to 10.8 K/9 while dropping his walks to 1.8 BB/9, but it should be noted his swinging strike rate has dropped to 9.7 percent. He has avoided hard contact nicely with a 28 percent hard hit rate, and with 48.4 percent ground balls, it presents a nice profile for avoiding homers (although he has allowed four on the year after only allowing three last year). A closer who doesn't walk many guys and gets a lot of ground balls while still generating a good amount of strikeouts is a pretty damn good profile. With only 10 saves on the year, he can probably still be acquired for a decent price, and I like his chance to carve out even more of the ninth innings for the Twins as the year progresses, especially since they're tied for the best record in the American League and their games should matter almost the entire second half.
One last note on closers: I'm not necessarily the biggest Scott Oberg fan, as his walks are up and the velocity is a bit down, but if you need saves and he was dropped in your league (as a point of reference, he is currently 76 percent owned in NFBC Main Event 15-teamers and only 44 percent owned in the 12-team contests), I think he's a strong add this week after Wade Davis got smoked again on Thursday night, this time by the Dodgers. Davis now sports a 6.00 (yes, that is correct!) ERA, which pairs very nicely with his equally ugly 6.00 BB/9 walk rate. His strikeouts are down from 10.7 K/9 in 2018 to 9.0 K/9 this season, and his hard hit rate has spiked (41.8 percent) while his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10.2 percent. They are going to have to get him out of the role at some point and hopefully you can grab Oberg before they do.
