This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
The Week That Was
After seeing Tommy Pham's late-season stint with the Rays and how much he ran (five of his 15 stolen bases came in September), I was excited about him in drafts this year as one of the better speed/power combo guys outside the first couple of rounds. He started the season really well with an average over .300 through the first two months, but hasn't been quite the same player since missing five games in early June with a lower leg issue.
Since the start of June, Pham does still have eight homers and seven steals, but is only hitting .237 in 232 plate appearances. Most concerning is that his hard hit rate, a strength of his last year, is under 36 percent in that stretch. In the first two months of the season, when Pham hit .300, the hard rate was at 50.9 percent, and that was after a 48.5 percent rate last year. He is still at a strong 43.3 percent on the season, but I'm definitely concerned about the last couple of months which are both under 40 percent. He still hits in a nice lineup spot, second for the Rays, but this recent downturn looks more like a lack of production than a lack of luck. I still like the skill set and love the strikeout rate under 20 percent, but with his dropping hard contact the last couple of months, I cannot recommend him as someone to go out and trade
The Week That Was
After seeing Tommy Pham's late-season stint with the Rays and how much he ran (five of his 15 stolen bases came in September), I was excited about him in drafts this year as one of the better speed/power combo guys outside the first couple of rounds. He started the season really well with an average over .300 through the first two months, but hasn't been quite the same player since missing five games in early June with a lower leg issue.
Since the start of June, Pham does still have eight homers and seven steals, but is only hitting .237 in 232 plate appearances. Most concerning is that his hard hit rate, a strength of his last year, is under 36 percent in that stretch. In the first two months of the season, when Pham hit .300, the hard rate was at 50.9 percent, and that was after a 48.5 percent rate last year. He is still at a strong 43.3 percent on the season, but I'm definitely concerned about the last couple of months which are both under 40 percent. He still hits in a nice lineup spot, second for the Rays, but this recent downturn looks more like a lack of production than a lack of luck. I still like the skill set and love the strikeout rate under 20 percent, but with his dropping hard contact the last couple of months, I cannot recommend him as someone to go out and trade for, and if I got a great offer for him for the stretch run, I think I would take it and re-address his draft price in the offseason for 2020 drafts after seeing how he finishes up the season.
Mike Trout is having yet another monster year in 2019 and is likely to be the No. 1 pick in drafts again next year, but with the stolen bases down to only nine so far this year, there could be some discussion about the top spot next year. While Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich deservedly got all the hype and attention early on in the season, it is now Ronald Acuna closing on the outside as a name that could be in consideration for the top spot in 2020 drafts.
After a great rookie year in which he hit 26 homers and stole 16 bases in 111 games, Acuna has ramped it up in an huge way this season, especially as of late with the stolen bases. Acuna, for some reason, jumped into crazy run mode at the start of July and after 13 steals in the first three months, he has swiped 13 alone since July 1. That puts him at 26 steals to go with his 30 homers, and Acuna finds himself with a legit chance at a 40/40 season with seven and a half weeks left in the season.
If Acuna were to end up somewhere around that level with his current .293 average, he is going to have to merit serious consideration as the very top pick next year, especially since he will be a mere 22 years of age in 2020. With all the other stats already mentioned, Acuna is going to end up well over 100 runs (he has 93 already) and could threatened 100 RBI with a strong close to the season. With the names already noted above, it is becoming clear already that landing in the top four of drafts is going to get you an absolute beast to start your team, and I won't be surprised if Acuna ends up second, if not first, among those top four guys.
FAAB Feelings
The two-start pitchers this week look ugly again with a lot of guys already 100 percent owned, combined with a bunch of guys you want no part of for two starts. One guy who is available in many leagues who might gain some interest this weekend is A's starter Brett Anderson. Anderson gets a very appealing first start facing the Giants in Oracle Park (boy, that is still weird to say), and while the second is at home, it is against the powerful Astros. Anderson has managed to be effective without the benefit of the strikeout, allowing three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and a more impressive 12 of his last 14 starts. He faced the Astros once already this year and, in that outing, he allowed three runs over 5.1 innings.
In a deeper league where you need wins, I can see the appeal of Anderson with the thought if he can just keep the A's in the game, they could score enough runs for a chance at a couple of wins. In every other situation, I'm playing this one as a "no thanks," as Anderson only throws 90.6 mph, and while he mixes pitches pretty well, his 4.68 ERA and a BABIP 40 points higher than his career average combined with a 38.8 percent hard hit rate makes me think some really ugly outings are on their way. With a two-start pitcher, I always want a fallback of knowing I can get some strikeouts if the ratios go a bit sideways, but with his 4.5 K/9 strikeout rate, you are pretty much assured to not get enough to be worth the ratio risk. His recent run of starts will likely make him a popular pickup these weeks with the two starts, but I'm playing this one as a hard pass in almost every situation.
While he is a not a two-start guy this week, and may never be with the way the Padres use their starters, I really like what I have seen from Cal Quantrill as of late. Since his call-up in May, Quantrill has posted a 3.57 ERA in 63 innings and now finds himself solidly in the starting rotation for the Padres, although sometimes he has followed an opener. In his last four outings, he has been very effective, allowing a total of three earned runs over 22 innings with 16 strikeouts.
Quantrill has allowed a bit too much hard contact at a 40 percent hard hit rate, but he throws hard (average fastball 94.7 mph) and induces a nice ground ball rate at 47.6 percent. The lack of big-time strikeouts is a concern with Quantrill, as his 7.4 K/9 strikeout rate is not going to move you up the strikeout standings quickly, but he has earned his rotation spot in a good place to pitch in San Diego. In a season where it is very tough to find starters who don't blow up on you, give me the guy who was picked eighth overall in the draft and seems to be settling in and finding his way in the bigs with a 2.05 ERA since July 1. Despite the recent success, he is also available in a lot of leagues as he currently checks in at only 30 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team contest.
If you follow Statcast numbers, J.D. Davis has been popular due to his hard contact numbers, but had been having trouble finding consistent at bats with the Mets, often finding himself as pinch hitter late in games. The tide appears to be shifting as Davis has been finding a starting spot most nights for the surging Mets and has also been hitting fifth or sixth in the order. He has quietly put together a nice season, hitting .305 with 12 homers in 300 plate appearances. His hard hit rate of 42.9 percent is strong, especially with a 24.3 percent line drive rate, but his lack of fly balls at only 25.7 percent does put a cap on how many homers you will get from him.
Davis has been especially hot as of late, hitting a massive .373 since July 1 over 75 at-bats with a very impressive 52.5 percent hard hit rate. His average exit velocity of 92.3 mph actually puts him in the top 15 in all of baseball, and his excepted batting average of .322 on Baseball Savant puts him second in baseball only behind Cody Bellinger, so it looks like that .305 batting average is pretty well supported. The time to grab Davis is now, as he is only owned in 30 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues (he is almost universally owned now in the 15-teamers) and is really rolling right now and playing just about full-time and if you needed another reason to grab him, the multipositional eligibility with third base and outfield adds another bit of value to his profile.
A Closer Look
The closing situation for a lot of teams got interesting last week with the trade deadline along with some demotions, and a couple of those situations are still pretty up in the air. Seattle and Miami seem to be up for grabs, although the Mariners do look like they are leaning toward Anthony Bass as he locked down a save Wednesday night. In Arizona, it fully looks like Archie Bradley is getting a full run at the job and has the chance to be one of the nicer adds for the final two months for teams that were able to snag him.
In Oakland, the Liam Hendriks leash seemed to be getting shorter after a few hiccups, albeit in tough spots, and Blake Treinen seemed to be getting his groove back, but that all flipped recently. Hendriks looked really good locking down his last couple of saves, and Treinen got destroyed on Monday in Wrigley to cost the A's the game and also allowed another homer on Wednesday. With only seven weeks left after this weekend, Hendriks firmly has the job, and it would take a lot from both guys for it to flip now.
One interesting spot right now, and really is has been all year, is with the Boston Red Sox. There was the report a few weeks back that Nathan Eovaldi was going to come off the Injured List and not only close, but be used in a traditional closer role. Well, Eovaldi has made seven appearances since his return, none as the closer, and has allowed seven runs in those 7.2 innings. He has been striking batters out with 14 strikeouts in that stretch, but has also allowed 14 hits. On the flip side, Brandon Workman locked down two saves this week and has not allowed a run in his last six appearances, and has a 1.92 ERA on the year. His strikeout numbers have been good all year, and while he certainly walks too many guys (5.7 BB/9), he absolutely looks like the guy right now for saves in Boston and is extending that rope by every save and scoreless appearance.
Series of the Weekend
Indians at Twins. As tempting as it was to take a look at the surging Mets heading into a weekend set with the Nationals, I have to go with the four-game series in Minneapolis that features the top two teams in the closest division in baseball facing off. The Twins have led this division all year, but the Indians have been on fire this summer with a 17-9 record in June and a 18-6 record in July and have cut the Twins lead to one after taking down game one of the series 7-5. The Twins still had a winning record in June and July, but have not matched their electric start to the season, and we now have a fantastic AL Central race between two teams that are both currently playoff squads and who still have nine head-to-head games remaining.
Jose Ramirez, welcome to the party, pal. After a truly abysmal start to the season that saw him still hitting under .200 as late as June 12 with only five homers through the first three months, J Ram has finally caught fire. Ramirez was great in July, hitting .320 with nine homers, 25 RBI and four stolen bases. And while he has still not been what anyone wanted from an early to mid-first rounder, he does have the average all the way up to .248, and with 16 homers and 23 steals, one can squint and see a pretty decent line by the end of the year if he can stay locked in. His hard hit rate is up to 39.1 percent, boosted by a 49.4 percent rate in July. He is clearly not going to come close to matching the 39 homers from 2018, but at least he has been running all year even when he was struggling, and hopefully, he can stay on this heater for the final seven weeks.
The Twins offense still leads all of baseball in homers by a significant margin and recently has been led by the red hot Nelson Cruz, but he left Thursday's night game with a strained wrist and is currently listed as day-to-day. A little bit hidden in all the great stories on the Twins this year has been the resurgence of Miguel Sano. Sano started the year on the Injured List, but since returning, he has been huge for the Twins, smacking 20 homers in only 66 games while hitting .247. This comes just a year after he finished 2018 with a batting average under .200 and hit only 13 homers in nearly 300 plate appearances.
Sano clearly strikes out too much still with a 35.1 percent strikeout rate on the season, but that has always been the black eye in his profile. The power is clearly very real (never had a hard hit rate under 40 percent), but he has ramped it up even more this year with a 51.8 percent hard hit rate so far this year. That rate combined with a 44.6 percent fly ball rate is always going to lead to a lot of pop when he does manage to make contact. On the plus side with the strikeouts, at least he has dropped his swinging strike rate to 14.8 percent, a number that was quite elevated at 18.3 percent just two years ago. When Sano is hitting bombs, he makes this Twins offense even scarier, and even with the start on the IL, he has an excellent chance to top his career high of 28 homers. The strikeouts are always going to make me a bit hesitant on draft day due to the batting average downside it brings with it, but the power upside is pretty darn high if he could ever find a way into the lineup for 150 games.
