Oak's Corner: Big Weekend in the NL Central

The Week That Was

It's funny that in our little hobby/obsession how having a player on your fantasy team can make you really become a fan of a player, and I have done that with Eduardo Escobar. I targeted Escobar last year as a late play due to the Jorge Polanco suspension, and he had his second straight 20 homer season (and also smoked 48 doubles) and boosted his hard contact rate significantly while forcing his way into full-time at-bats. Escobar moved to the Diamondbacks at the 2018 trade deadline and has stepped up his production even more this season with 15 homers, and he looks primed to smash his prior career high of 23, and with 48 RBI already, he ranks in the top 10 in baseball.

Escobar has not only maintained his hard hit rate jump of 2018, but has improved it to 41.9 percent. Even after the strong 2018, Escobar was an afterthought in March drafts with an ADP of 196.5 in the NFBC Main Event. His multiposition eligibility also adds to his value, as he qualifies at third base and shortstop, and thus can be moved around in those spots as well as corner and middle infielders. In a trade league, I am a firm hold on Escobar as I really like the profile and eligibility and love watching the dude hit.

I like to own up to mistakes and misses in fantasy baseball, and I admit I did not see this Lucas Giolito breakout coming at all. Giolito had a brutal 6.5 K/9 strikeout rate in 2018 against an ugly 4.7 BB/9 walk rate as he posted a 6.13 ERA in 173.1 innings pitched. Granted, he had a huge prospect pedigree as a firstround pick and some excellent minor league numbers, but I really didn't see anything in the recent profile to get excited about entering 2019. Well, Giolito has absolutely blown that 2018 line out of the water with a 3.54 ERA through his first 11 starts in 2019.

Along the way, Giolito has upped his strikeout rate nearly four strikeouts per nine to 10.4 K/9, a pretty much unheard of jump from one year to the next for a guy who didn't swap roles in any way. The strikeouts look fully supported by a huge five-percent jump to 13.3 percent. In addition to the massive strikeout improvement, he has also cut his walk rate from 4.67 BB/9 to 2.67 BB/9. Further, he has cut his home run rate from 1.40 HR/9 to 0.53 BB/9 (the largest drop of any starting pitcher), a metric that has been a huge issue for him in his time in the majors. Perhaps most impressively, he has increased his fastball velocity from 92.4 mph to 94 mph from 2018 to 2019. He has been mixing pitches better, throwing more change ups while also dropping his sinking fastball totally. I figured a deeper look into Giolito might reveal some stuff to make him a prime sell high, but this just looks like a guy who has figured it out. The gains are all supported, and if I own him, I am holding and enjoying the ride.

FAAB Feelings

Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was a fascinating story last season, as he posted a 2.83 in 136.2 innings with the Braves, just one season after a brutal 6.41 ERA in 105.1 innings with the Tigers. Sanchez struggled to start this season posting a 5.10 ERA through his first nine starts while not managing a single win, and he only made it through the sixth inning in one start. Those struggles plus the move to the Injured List with a hamstring strain caused him to be dropped in a lot of league and he's currently only 28 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team leagues.

Sanchez has been a different pitcher off the IL in his two starts, allowing one total run in 11.1 innings while striking out 14 and walking only two. A lot of his 2018 success was due to avoiding hard contact, with a 27.7 percent hard hit rate and he has continued to succeed there with a 30.8 percent rate this season. I'll admit I was a bit wary about drafting Sanchez this March, but as a free agent, it's definitely worth a stab to see how real these last two starts are, especially considering he is scheduled for a pretty decent two-step on paper this week, at the White Sox and home against Arizona.

Jon Duplantier. With the struggles of Zack Godley and the injury to Luke Weaver, Duplantier has been stretched out as a starter and is now in the Diamondbacks rotation. He was added in many deeper leagues last week after his first start against the Mets, but the bidding was a bit muted as he was slated for one start against the mighty Dodgers this week. His popularity will certainly rise this week after a five inning, two earned run, seven strikeout performance against those Dodgers, as well the fact that he is scheduled for  two starts this week, although they are both on the road, facing the Phillies and Nationals.

Duplantier was a third round pick in the 2016 draft, and after a phenomenal debut in Single-A in 2017, he posted a 2.69 ERA in 67 Double-A innings in 2018, but was limited by a hamstring and a right biceps injury. He exhibited big strikeout numbers in 2017, but that rate did come down a bit to 9.13 K/9 in 2018. Duplantier is the top pitching prospect in the Arizona system, and while the innings will likely be monitored this year, he does possess some upside right away as a starter with scouting reports noting that he's able to use all four pitches effectively. After the solid outing against the Dodgers, Duplantier should have solidified himself in the rotation, especially considering the right forearm soreness on Weaver could end up being a long-term injury. At only 22 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers, he will be added in almost all the rest of the leagues this week, and I' ll definitely bid, as he could stick in the rotation, with the caution being the innings limit is likely to push up against him at some point.

Willy Adames. I added Adames last week in my 15-team NFBC Main event team, but he's still only owned at 29 percent in the 12-team format. While Adames doesn't profile as a huge contributor in any one offensive category, he's still only 23 and is hitting the ball much harder this year, with a hard hit rate just over 40 percent. I think he could be solid as a middle infielder the rest of the way, even in a 12-teamer. Adames started really slowly, hitting .200 in April, but since May 1, he has turned his season around, hitting .298 with 13 runs and 13 RBI in only 104 at-bats. He has even flashed some power and speed in that stretch with four homers and two stolen bases.

The most important aspect for me in terms of the fantasy world with this recent streak is that it has moved him up in the order, and after hitting seventh or later all of April, Adames has found himself hitting sixth a bunch, and even hit third and fourth in the last week. If he can stick in the middle of this Rays lineup, the counting sats will come, and while the strikeouts are still an issue, he has dropped his strikeout rate, and I think the batting average will come along with that drop as long as he can maintain the level of hard contact.

Garrett Cooper. The Marlins are not good, we know that, but that doesn't mean they don't have some guys who can help your squad as we hit the summer. After returning from the Injured List, Cooper has slotted into a really nice spot in the lineup, hitting second for the Marlins in nearly every game. With the need for anyone with a pulse in deeper leagues, Cooper is now owned at 81 percent in the NFBC Main Event but is still available in almost every 12-team league, owned at only 10 percent.

After moving to the Marlins organization to start 2018, Cooper suffered a wrist injury that cost him most of the season, but he flashed big power in 2017 with 17 homers in with the Brewers in Triple-A in only 75 games. Cooper is already 28 and spent a lot of time in the minors, and he isn't likely to be a big breakout, but as a fourth or fifth outfielder, I love the lineup spot and the 45.6 percent hard hit rate he has flashed so far this season to go with a solid 91.1 mph exit velocity. With so many injuries out there in baseball this year, someone like Cooper hitting in the top third of a lineup can be a great piece to use when you need, especially in a biweekly format like the NFBC where you can play matchups with your end of roster outfielders to max at-bats and stats.

Series of the Weekend

Cardinals at Cubs. The Cardinals welcomed the first place Cubs last weekend with a chance to get back in the race and make a statement. They did just that with a huge three-game sweep at home. The clubs match up again this weekend in Chicago with the Cubs tied with the Brewers in the NL Central and leading the Cards by 2.5 games. If the Cubs can return the favor and sweep St. Louis, they can put the Cardinals back where they were, but another series win by the Cards could set up a really fun three-way race in the NL Central. Also in the division, the Brewers face the Pirates who find themselves only four games back, and if Pittsburgh can win that series, we might even see a four-way race heading into the summer.

The Cardinals big splash this offseason was the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt, and while Goldy hasn't been bad, aside from his three homer game, he hasn't made a huge splash as of yet. While he does have 12 homers, he has only managed to drive in 27 runs to date as he is hitting only .243 with zero homers with runners in scoring position. Overall, Goldschmidt is hitting .271 which is a bit below where we expect him to land, but his batted ball profile still looks great with a 51.8 percent hard hit rate that puts him in the top 10 in baseball.

His move to St. Louis appears to have shut down the running game, as he has attempted only one stolen base through the first two months, although it could be argued that age may be the real culprit there, as he only attempted 11 stolen bases after at least 20 attempts in the prior three seasons. Those extra stolen bases were always a nice and sneaky boost to Goldschmidt's fantasy profile, but he's definitely just a front four offensive category player now. As the weather in St. Louis warms up and he continues to make hard contact, I think we're going to get a really good Goldschmidt summer, and I'd love to buy him off the tepid start. I really liked his price in the NFBC's Second Chance Leagues that ran over Memorial Day Weekend with a third round ADP of 30.2.

Every year in drafts, I am a bit wary of grabbing Kyle Hendricks due the below average strikeout numbers, but here we are two months into the season and Hendricks is pitching really well again and is easily the best starter in the Cubs rotation. As Yu Darvish has battled command issues, and Jon Lester has had some recent hiccups, Hendricks has been a rock for the team, sporting a 3.16 ERA to go with a 1.10 WHIP, both the best numbers on the Cubs staff. Along the way, Hendricks has actually bumped his strikeout rate to 8.3 K/9 while maintaining an exceptional walk rate, again under 2.00 BB/9.

When you look at pitchers who throw 94 to 98 mph every week, it's always amazing to get into Hendricks' profile and see the 87 mph average fastball velocity, a pitch that he throws more than 60 percent of the time and more than 90 percent of his pitches are either fastballs or changeups. He did start the season a bit slowly with an April ERA over 5.00 after the April 26 start against the Diamondbacks during which he allowed seven earned runs. Since that start, Hendricks has made seven starts, picking up five wins and sporting a 2.09 ERA in those 51.2 innings. Hendricks has seen his hard hit rate go up to 36 percent after sitting at or under 30 percent over the last five seasons, but on the positive side, his average exit velocity of 86.2 mph still puts him in the top 20 in MLB among starters. Hendricks will get the ball on Sunday against the Cardinals, and in his one start against the Cards this season, all he did was toss a four-hit, no-walk complete shutout.