Oak's Corner: Fading Into the Second Half

After the quietest week of the baseball summer, we're back at it on Friday night with a full slate, as we start of the second half and also begin the wild sprint to the finish in fantasy leagues. A couple weeks ago, I discussed a bunch of players who I like for the second half, and since there were no games this week to break down, I'll now look at some guys I like to fade in the second half. I've tried to find a mix of guys, so if you play in a trade league or a nontrade leagues like NFBC, it will hopefully be of some assistance. I've also tried to pick guys on whom you can actually sell high and whom fantasy owners still really like. Here's to a great second half!

Catcher: Roberto Perez. This may seem like an obvious one, but with 16 homers in the first half, I have seen Perez on must own lists, and while he has earned his way into that status so far, I'd love to trade him in a two-catcher league where he certainly has current appeal. Not only does Perez have the 16 homers, but he is also hitting .256 through 63 games after topping .210 exactly zero times in the prior three seasons. He isn't striking out quite as much as in 2018, but the rate is still pretty darn high at 28.6 percent.

His hard hit rate is nice at 42.6 percent (and was 40.7 percent in 2018), but at only 33.6 percent fly balls, the home runs just cannot sustain, and with his strikeout rate, I don't think the average will either. With similar hard hit and fly ball rates in 2018, Perez' HR/FB rate was definitely a bit low at 5.3 percent, but it's nothing compared to the insane 34.8 percent rate he sports this year, which is actually the fourth highest rate in all of baseball among hitters with more than 200 plate appearances. I actually think he can be dealt in a two-catcher league for a nice price, and not only do I think you'll be happy with the return, but I think he ends up getting dropped in many leagues by September.

First Base: Luke Voit. Voit is currently on the Injured List with an abdominal strain, but reports from both him and the Yankees makes it sound like he'll be ready to go very soon;  maybe this weekend. Voit was a revelation for the Yankees in 2018 after his acquisition, hitting .322 with 15 homers in only 47 games. He has again been effective this year with 17 homers heading into the break paired with a .280 average. Further on the plus side, he hits in the middle of a fantastic lineup, which has fueled his 53 runs and 50 RBI.

All this stuff is great, and most people believe he's a lot more than a half-season fluke from 2018, which makes him timed perfectly to trade. My biggest concern with Voit in the second half is that that he isn't hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did in 2018, as his hard hit rate has dropped nine percent to 38.2 percent, and his fly ball rate is also down to 34.3 percent. His exit velocity, which stood at 93 mph in his short stint last season is also down significantly to 89.6 mph. Voit is clearly strong and has power and is going to hit some homers, especially with his home park, but the hard contact concerns me just enough that I would look to move him for full value now.

Also at first base, while I like Jose Abreu, with a strikeout rate that has jumped more than three percent to 23 percent combined with a walk rate that has dropped under five percent, I'd also like to sell high on him right now with his 21 homers. His hard hit rate is under 40 percent, and his fly ball rate is under 35 percent and while the warm summer in Chicago is a great place to hit, he's someone on whom I think you can sell high nicely, and I would love to be able to pull that off due to his excellent first half.

Second Base: Brandon Lowe. I wrote earlier this year about selling high on Lowe, and while he has continued to hit, I am back here to double down. Lowe is currently on the Injured List but is scheduled to be back shortly after the break and finished the first half with 16 homers and a .276 while driving in 49 runs. I recognize he's talented and the 41.5 percent hard hit rate is very solid, but while the power could last, I still maintain the average is coming down and its coming down hard.

His strikeout rate currently sits at 33.9 percent, trailing only Wil Myers among qualified hitters and his swinging strike rate of 18.5 percent trails only Adalberto Mondesi (I was a bit surprised by his name at the top). He's also not showing much growth with the punch outs, as he has maintained a rate over 32 percent in each month of the season so far. The .381 BABIP (also top five in MLB) is just not going to stick and with that level of whiffs, the average is going to just die. He's a hyped enough name as a rookie that I think he can be dealt for a good price and I would explore that as soon as possible.

Shortstop: Freddy Galvis. Galvis has that big 20 homer/17 steal season with the Phillies in 2016 on his resume, but 15 homers at the break is ridiculous (but yea, Mr. Manfred, the ball isn't juiced at all). Since that 2016 season, Galvis hit 25 homers total in the next two seasons while playing full 162 game slates in each season. He appears to be selling out for power a bit with an increased strikeout rate of 23.1 percent, his highest since 2014. His hard rate isn't impressive in this new offensive environment at 35.2 percent and is actually down from 40.3 percent in 2018.

Even in his breakout 2016, his HR/FB was only 12.5 percent, but now it's at an elevated 15.8 percent. On another negative note, there's also a chance Galvis could get dealt at the deadline to a contender and could find himself in a timeshare or utility role if that is the case. I think Galvis ends up on a lot of waiver wires in the final month of the season, and I'd try and get anything I could get for him from his big first half.

Third Base: Kris Bryant. After a rough 2018 during which he homered only 13 times, Bryant has bounced back nicely so far in 2019 with a .297 average and 17 homers. Overall, he has dropped his strikeout rate from 2018 to 19.5 percent and bumped up his hard hit rate more than four percent to 35.9 percent, although that is still a rate well below what we would want from a power bat in 2019 drafted in the early rounds. Bryant is a huge name who could be sold at a nice price, and I'd explore those options as I am a bit concerned about his recent performance.

Since June 1, Bryant does have a .322 average but has hit only four homers in 121 at-bats in that stretch and has seen his strikeout rate climb to 23 percent, while he's only walked 9.4 percent of the time. His hard hit rate has also suffered with a 31.5 percent mark over that time period. It's a very minor concern and a small sample, but overall, I'm not seeing enough to support the full return to glory for Bryant and he would likely fetch a lot in a trade, and it's this type of well-timed profit taking that can be the difference in winning a league.  

Outfield: Victor Robles. This is a tough one to write as Robles is really fun to watch, but the continued complete lack of hard contact is just too big an issue for me to ignore right now. Among all qualified hitters, not only does Robles rate absolutely dead last in hard hit rate, he's a full four percent behind the next worst guy; just truly amazing. Robles has been a batting average negative at .246 due to that lack of hard contact paired with a higher than expected strikeout rate of 24.2 percent after a history of much lower rates in the minors.

On the plus side, Robles has been a power/speed asset with 13 homers and 12 steals, which is admittedly a very impressive half-season of numbers at 22. The homers are helped by a lot of fly balls (42.7 percent) but when make less hard contact than anyone in baseball, a lot of those are routine fly outs, which is going to hurt your average and isn't ideal when you have the speed Robles possesses. His Statcast numbers don't paint a better picture as his average exit velocity of 81.1 mph is better than only Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte.

Hard hit rates can bounce around a little bit, but I always pay attention to the extremes or big changes from year to year, and this extreme is so crazy on Robles that I am as big a sell as possible. He's clearly skilled, and the power/speed combo has flashed in his first full season, but he's a huge prospect, and people love having those. You can get a good price on him at the moment, and I want no part of his second half. In nontrade leagues like the NFBC, you have to ride him in the 15-teamers, but in 12-teamers, I'm keeping him in my lineup for now for the stolen bases, but I'm watching him closely and considering sitting him in tougher matchups.

Starting Pitcher: Marcus Stroman. Stroman figures to be in the news a ton this month as the rumors heat up about where he might be moved at the deadline. Stroman has posted an impressive 3.18 ERA in 104.2 innings to ramp up the trade price he might bring as the Blue Jays look to cash in for the future. As can happen with baseball and this lovely hobby of ours, under the surface, there's a lot of difference between Stroman in 2018 and 2019 despite the massive ERA difference as he posted a 5.54 ERA in 2018. Incredibly, when you look at his FIP for each season, they are 3.91 FIP in 2018 and 3.81 so far this year.

I love watching Stroman (have to love the 5'8'' dudes!) and the fire he brings to his starts, but his strikeout rate is still under 7.0 K/9 and the swinging strike rate is under 10 percent. On the plus side, Stroman does get a ton of ground balls at 57.5 percent, which greatly helps limits the homers, but also puts him at risk of the Babip Gods. There have been rumors that Stroman may move within the division to the Yankees and that becomes another negative as even as a ground baller, that is a really tough place to pitch. Without a lot of strikeouts, all of Stroman's value comes in the ratios, and with a WHIP of 1.26 even during this great first half, even that isn't really helping. With a new team, he likely will get a bump in wins with a better team dynamic, but I think the ERA is jumping up soon, and I'd cash in his first half and avoid the second half in my lineup.

Relief Pitcher: Alex Colome. The biggest concern about Colome right now from a fantasy angle is that the White Sox could move him at the deadline to a contender and that teams could stick him in a setup role. While that is a very valid concern, I have more issues with the rest of Colome's profile at the moment. He had a great fantasy first half with 20 saves and 2.02 ERA, especially when you consider his 173 ADP in the NFBC Main Event.

The immediate issue with Colome is the large drop in his strikeout rate from 2018, dropping dramatically from 9.5 K/9 to 6.8 K/9. As with hard contact, BABIP's can move around a bit, but I do pay attention to the extremes, and Colome's is about as extreme and absurd as it gets at .124 (I rechecked that number about eight times), just a small touch off his career .276 rate. He has pretty regularly avoided hard contact with a career mark under 30 percent, but it's currently at a career high of 38.7 percent. If Colome gets moved, clearly his fantasy value craters, but I think even if he sticks with the White Sox, he's about to encounter some significant hiccups, and his currently long leash on the closer role is going to get short quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't the White Sox closer by the end of the year, even if he doesn't get dealt.

Ok, fine, a couple more quick pitching hits:

Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has been incredible both in fantasy and for the Yankees with 24 saves and a 1.82 ERA. I was worried coming into the year about Chapman due to the high 2018 walk rate, but he has dropped that, too, and I have certainly been wrong so far about his 2019 fantasy value. Chapman has a crazy high value right now, and if I were in a good place in saves, he'd be the one I would cash in on as he will bring in a ton, and I'm a touch worried about a few items in his profile.

His strikeouts are still good but down from 2018 at 13.0 K/9, while his swinging strike rate sits at a career low of 12.3 percent. He's also allowing more hard contact than ever at a career high 38 percent rate with a very elevated 29.9 percent line drive rate. It would take the right (and big) package to move Chapman, but there's just enough there to make him the guy I'd cash in on if my closing situation was in good shape.

Wade Miley. I get the Astros are pitching geniuses, but I'm buying nothing about Miley's 3.28 ERA in the first half. His BABIP is 50 points lower than his career number of .256, and his strand rate of 81.9 percent would be the highest of his career. So while his strikeout rate has bumped from 2018, it's still only 7.6 K/9, and his hard hit rate is near a career high at 36.9 percent. His velocity hasn't gone up to explain anything about the lower ERA, and this second half is going to feature some rough outings you won't want a part of. If you own him, you have to ride him out for a bit, but definitely watch him closely and certainly avoid tougher matchups for now.

Luis Castillo. I love watching Castillo pitch, and this bounce back season has been fantastic, but I think now is the prime time to trade him for max value. The 2.29 ERA is quite pretty, but the 4.50 BB/9 walk rate scares me, and it actually rose to 6.3 BB/9 in June, a number that just has to bite him at some point. Castillo impressively has jumped the strikeout rate to a career-high 10.5 K/9, and while I certainly wouldn't sell if at anything below peak value, but if I could get it, I'd take it.

Hopefully your first half has put you in contention and now we can all make a run at some championships down the stretch!