Oak's Corner: Final Week FAAB Targets

The Week That Was

In the weirdest season in which we have all played fantasy baseball, in many ways it feels impossible that we are already rolling into the final week of the season, but with all the injuries and missed games, it has also had the feel of the grind of a full season. Last week, I looked at some struggling stars to get a feel for why they have struggled, but also to guess about how their draft position may end up in 2021.

Of course, in the short season, we also have a lot of players drafted late who had have fantastic seasons, and they're going to really difficult to rank next year when we all start to draft. I will likely lean more to fading  the two-month heroes, but it is important to treat every case on its own merits and not simply toss any hard and fast rules, or you may miss someone who produces at a level again in 2021.

More than anything, I want to thank everyone who reads the column every week as it's truly appreciated, and I'm very thankful you hung with me through this short but strange season. Stay safe out there!

When Sixto Sanchez got his call to the majors, I was aggressive in trying to add him where I could, and while he has been great, this undrafted player in fantasy leagues this year is going to have a ton of helium in 2021 drafts. The debut has been insanely impressive across his first five starts, with him posting a 1.69 ERA across 32 innings. The strikeouts have not been huge with an 8.2 K/9 strikeout rate, but his impeccable command (which is what I really liked from his minor league profile) has held up well in the majors with a 1.4 BB/9 walk rate. He still has two starts left and a blowup that significantly affects his ratios on the season could quell that helium a bit, but if he finishes strong, there will certainly be drafters looking to grab him early, maybe even in the top 50 overall.

Sanchez ' 13.5 percent swinging strike rate is nice and makes me think the strikeout rate will climb as he mixes his pitches a bit better, especially with a full and regular spring training next year. The tough thing with young pitchers for 2021 drafts is that they have not been afforded the chance to take a step up in innings this year, and, after 114 innings last year and likely somewhere around 45 innings this year, a prime question for him will be how hard the Marlins push him at age 23 next year. The stuff is all there (his average fastball velocity is 98.6 mph), and I love that he throws four pitches over 18 percent of the time, but if the price is going to climb as high as I think it will, the concern about how many innings they're willing to let him toss in 2021 is probably enough to keep me away at the price tag, but it wouldn't take the price to be much lower for me to jump aboard the hype train.

The other breakout pitcher that jumps out right away is clearly Corbin Burnes in Milwaukee, sporting a 1.98 ERA (and a 1.93 FIP!) over his 50 innings so far in 2020. Burnes started the year with some piggybacking out of the bullpen, but he is now fully entrenched in the rotation with his last six appearances all starts, and he has pitched five of more innings in all but one of the starts in that run. He hasn't allowed more than three runs all year in any outings and maybe, even more impressively, he has yet to allow more than five hits in any game. He has also punched out double-digit batters in three of his last four appearances. It's pretty easy to figure out if you strike out a lot of guys and don't allow a lot of hits, a good amount of success is coming your way. His one negative this year has been the bump in the walk rate to nearly four walks per nine, but even that has improved recently, as he has only allowed six walks in his last 23.2 innings after giving up 16 free passes in his first 26.1 innings.

The most intriguing thing when looking at Burnes' Statcast profile is how much he has changed up his pitch mix in 2020. After throwing his four-seamer 52.5 percent of the time in 2019 and having it get crushed to the tune of an .823 slugging percentage (actually not a typo!), he now rarely uses the four seamer and has moved to using his sinker 36.3 percent of the time. In addition, after throwing his cutter at under one percent in 2019, it's now his second most utilized pitch at 27.5 percent, and he is also getting a 31.6 percent whiff rate while expanding the usage. After using primarily two pitches last year and posting an ERA over 8.00, it is very impressive that Burnes retooled the repertoire so much, and it has clearly gotten results. There were many people such as my podcast partner, Jeff Erickson, who liked the stuff they saw from Burnes, and it has paid off, but there's no doubt the price will be high next year. While I'll probably dive a little deeper into him in the offseason, both the stats and the eye test make me ready to pay the price and grab Burnes for a full season in 2020.

The Wil Myers resurgence has been a fun story in a summer of fun for the San Diego Padres. Even though he did hit 18 homers and steal 16 bases last year, it was a tough year for Myers, as he hit only .239 and struggled with a massive 34.3 percent strikeout rate and found himself not an everyday starter. The strikeout rate was such a weird jump for a veteran in his seventh year who consistently was in the 26 percent range throughout his career. Whatever he did to figure it out (there was some talk of a stride change in spring training) has worked, as he was dropped the strikeout rate back to that career norm level at 25.1 percent.

While Myers has found a way to limit the strikeouts, he has still maintained a nice hard hit profile with a 46 percent hard hit rate and a barrel rate that puts him in the 92nd percentile at 15.2 percent. After the rough 2019, Myers was not popular in drafts, with an ADP in the NFBC Main Event Drafts of 206.7, but he has ended up one of the better values across fantasy leagues. His price will obviously rise, but with only one stolen base and 2019 still fresh in people's minds, I'm not sure it will shoot that high and I would be back in on Myers around pick 125 to 150 where I think he lands.

FAAB Feelings

Your Sundays are about to get exponentially more open as this is the final week of FAAB for the 2020 season. At this point, we're looking for playing time and pitchers likely to make their starts and pitch deep enough into games for that start to matter. While one week seems like nothing, it is wild that it's still 10 percent of the season, so make sure you use these final bucks on players who you will use in the final week. Rather than deep looks at players here, I'm going to rapidly note a few players I think might provide a spark for your squads in the home stretch.

Jared Walsh – In deeper leagues, this week will probably be too late to add the white hot Walsh, but he is still only owned in 42 percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues. He is playing every day (even started against all three lefties this week) and hitting second in front of Mike Trout, and while that should be enough, he's also on fire with a nine-game hitting streak and homers in six of his last eight games. Walsh did mash 36 homers last year in AAA in only 98 games, so there is a history of pop, and I am hoping this hot streak can keep up for nine more games.

Jose Iglesias – If you find yourself in a tight race in batting average, a small bid on Iglesias could be key in grabbing a couple of points in that category. He's not going to provide any pop but he is hitting .375 on the season and has been hot with eight hits this week. Most importantly, not only does he play every day and hit second, but the Orioles finish the season in Boston and Toronto, two pitching staffs of whom I have absolutely zero fear.

Daniel Vogelbach – If home runs are the stat you need in the final week, this is strictly a schedule play, as the Brewers have eight games scheduled this week, and most importantly for Vogelbach, seven of the eight are against right handed pitchers, so he is likely to be in the lineup a lot. He has shown a little bit of life this week with a couple of multihit games against the Cardinals, including a homer. The batting average likely won't be pretty, but this is a dude who did hit 30 homers last year and is available everywhere. He's only owned in three percent of the NFBC Main Event drafts.

Drew Smyly – If you need some extra strikeouts, Smyly is an interesting play this week as he is scheduled to make two home starts against the Rockies and Padres. Smyly has yet to go five innings in a start yet this season, so wins are likely not coming, but he did get to 78 pitches in his last outing, so a five-inning start is possible with a touch more efficiency and a slightly longer rope. But, you're here for the Ks, as Smyly has punched out eight batters in each of his past two starts, even though he only tossed 7.2 total innings in those starts. With two starts this week, Smyly has a shot at getting you strikeouts in the teens, which could mean a point of two in the standings.

Stefan Crichton – In all my leagues, saves are so tight that a couple of saves in the final week could mean the difference between cashing or not. Crichton has taken over the Diamondbacks closer job with three saves over the past week and is only 11 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues and 56 percent in the NFBC Main Event Leagues. Of course, it is possible Arizona doesn't win many games in the final week, but I feel pretty good that if they do have a lead in the ninth, you will see Crichton on the hill.

Series of the Weekend

Twins at Cubs – We currently have seven teams with 30-plus wins, and this interleague matchup features two of them and should be a really fun series. The Cubs have essentially locked up the NL Central, but they are still trying to clinch that and also hold off the Braves for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs. The Twins are a sure thing to make the playoffs, but they're battling the Yankees right now for the No. 4 seed, and, considering that is likely to be the four vs. five battle in the American League, whoever can be the No. 4 seed and get all three games at home will want that edge. The Twins are currently one game better than the Yankees and will not want to squander any part of that this weekend against the Cubbies. As if the series isn't good enough already, we also get a great pitching matchup on Sunday with Jose Berrios facing Yu Darvish.

Last week I wrote about the struggles of Javier Baez, and I have commented enough about the brutal Kris Bryant season on Twitter and the RotoWire Baseball Podcast, but lost a bit in the struggles of those two is the quietly horrendous season that Kyle Schwarber is having, and he was a player I really liked heading into 2020 to further improve upon his 2019 breakout. Schwarber does have 10 homers, but they come along with a .194 average, as his strikeouts have become a major issue once again. He had managed to drop his strikeout rate three seasons in a row, but that rate has popped back up to 31.4 percent, the 11th highest number in all of baseball.

Schwarber is still making a good amount of loud contact with a 47.5 percent hard hit rate, and while his barrel rate is down to 11.9 percent, that still puts him above the 80th percentile in that stat. His swinging strike rate is still only 11.7, which is a positive, and with the continuing hard contact, I think I will be on Schwarber again in 2021, albeit at a nice discount from his 2020 draft price. It is pretty wild the Cubs have maintained a .600 winning percentage with the three middle-of-the-order hitters noted here all having significantly subpar seasons.

The Twins haven't been the offensive juggernaut we expected, as even though they are still top 10 in MLB in homers, they are only 15th in runs scored, trailing those expected offensive powerhouses like the Giants and Orioles. While Miguel Sano and Max Kepler have been disappointments, we are finally seeing a solid season from Byron Buxton who has a .622 slugging percentage, and, despite missing time on the injured List and only playing 24 games, he now has 12 homers after going yard twice on Thursday.

The power breakout is supported by a big jump in his hard contact numbers, as he's posting career highs by a big percentage in hard hit rate (45.1 percent) and barrel rate (13.4 percent). Perhaps the most incredible stat among Buxton's profile is that he has drawn one whole walk all year long, good enough for a 0.9 percent walk rate. I suppose if you are hitting homers, who cares if you walk, but his .272 OBP makes it tough for him to ever move up in the lineup or to utilize his speed, as he only has one stolen base this year. The power surge will likely bump Buxton's price back up toward the levels of prior years, and if I see that happening, he's likely someone I will be out on for 2021.

Good luck the rest of the way, and hopefully a league win or two will make this 2020 baseball grind quite worth it!