Oak's Corner: Free Agent Pickups for the Final Kick

The Week That Was

It's always fun to be right, but I think a lot can be learned from looking back at mistakes (and frankly, it's also far less annoying than victory laps), and one of my biggest whiffs this year was buying in on a bounce back season for Brian Dozier. After multiple years of excellent production in Minnesota, Dozier crashed in 2018 with a .215 average and lost playing time late in the year after a trade to the Dodgers. After signing with the Nats in the offseason, I thought Dozier would return to stable playing time and that people were overrating one bad year over the years of fantasy excellent he had in the past.

Well, Dozier has disappointed once again, hitting .236 with 19 homers and only three steals. The drop in steals is particularly concerning, as they have now decreased for four straight years, plus  Dozier is now 32 and he has been caught more than he has been successful this season. A potential drop in steals was always a risk as Dozier aged, but I still thought he would be good for double digits after he was 12 for 15 in stolen bases last year.

He has improved his hard hit rate and exit velocity, but with only 19 barrels (he had 40 in both 2016 and 2017), he clearly isn't crushing a lot of balls. Also on the negative side, Dozier has a career high 22.3 percent strikeout rate, which is hurting his average, and when looking at his xBA, it supports the low average at .226. The worst part of his profile at the moment is the fact that Dozier has finally gotten to the point where he isn't playing nearly enough to use anymore, as Asdrubal Cabrera has sucked up most of his playing time. Dozier is definitely a drop right now in both 12 and 15 teamers and I don't see much to get excited about for next season.

The Austin Meadows breakout has been a lot of fun this fun unless you are a Pirates fan or happen to work in their front office. Meadows was acquired by the Rays in 2018 in the Chris Archer trade and as Archer has disappointed in Pittsburgh most of the year, Meadows has used his first full season in Tampa to blossom into a star with a 26-homer, ten steal season despite playing only 118 games.

Meadows has impressively bumped up his hard hit rate nearly seven percent from his rookie year to 43.9 percent and put to rest the concerns during his minor league days that he may not ever hit for power. His exit velocity has jumped from 88.2 mph to 90.7 mph from 2018 to 2019, and his barrel rate has nearly doubled to 11.9 percent as well. Further supporting the power breakout is his increase in fly ball rate to 43.6 percent while he also upped his line drive rate to 22.8 percent. On the downside, his strikeout rate has risen to 23.2 percent, but that still is a workable number considering how much the rest of his line improved and the era in which we currently reside. He will be hyped in 2020 moving into his age 25 season, but I'll be very aggressive in grabbing him, as this breakout is very real and he is just really damn good.

FAAB Feelings

With three weeks left in the season, I'm continuing to focus on more content here to try and help everyone finish strong, but will be a little more rapid fire than usual with more choices to discuss.

Just a quick note here since they are both 75 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers: If Jurickson Profar or Luis Arraez are available in your league, grab them for the final kick. They are both eligible at a minimum of three positions, which becomes even more valuable than usual with a lot of regulars getting some days off or any minor injury running the risk of guys just shutting it down. 

Arraez had a bit of a playing time dip last week while Jonathan Schoop was hot, but looks to be playing against almost every righty and just keeps hitting. He had three straight multihit games this week and is still hitting .343 and has hit for average and every level. Profar has had quite the up and down season and it looked like he would hit the bench for a while, but he has warmed significantly as of late with four homers and 12 RBI in his last 10 games. Profar, even with his speed, somehow has a .210 BABIP and could be due a nice run of luck now that he's back to mostly regular playing time.

Jordan Lyles. I will hit quickly on Lyles as he is 71 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers, but if you happen to be in one of the 29 percent of leagues where he is available or in a more shallow league, the time to grab Lyles is now. He has been on a great roll recently with two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, good for a 2.56 in that stretch. He's scheduled to get two starts and one of them is middle of the road against the Cardinals, but the first one is a prime matchup against the Marlins. If Lyles is still available in your league, he is a very strong bid this week.

Gavin Lux. Lux was likely added in a bunch of leagues last weekend, but in the NFBC format, his first game was not until Monday, so he wasn't eligible to be added last week even though his callup was announced prior to that. He's obviously the biggest name available this week, and manager Dave Roberts already was quoted saying that Lux would be playing almost every game this month against right handers. While one never knows how rotations moves around, the Dodgers are schedule to face 10 righties the next two weeks in 11 games, so Lux should see plenty of action coming up.

The 2016 first rounder is only 21 but already a stud, hitting 26 homers across Double-A and Triple-A with 10 steals and an average significantly above .300 this season. Further, for a player of his age, he had an impressive 18.1 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A to go with a 14.2 percent walk rate. With all the righties due for the Dodgers to face, I would definitely go all out for Lux this weekend, while remembering saving a few bucks for the final two weeks, as he is clearly the biggest impact bat who'll be a free agent in these final few weeks.

Elieser Hernandez. The possible two-start pitchers this week in free agent is ugly again, so I'm looking at Hernandez this week in spots where I need strikeouts and maybe even a win, but I know, he pitches for the Marlins. Hernandez has had massive issues with homers this year, but does get one of his two starts in San Francisco, which is an ideal spot for a homer prone pitcher. Hernandez is also at a strikeout rate of 8.8 K/9 with an 11 percent swinging strike rate, so with two starts, he should help you a bit there and he has managed to allow two runs or fewer in three of his last six starts, but one of those was only a four-inning stint. The first start against the Brewers may sound ominous, but the Brewers are quietly 24th in runs scored and home runs since the All Star Break. This option one is scary and he pitched poorly on Thursday night, but the matchups with some strikeout upside put him on the radar in deeper leagues.

Victor Reyes. At least point of the year, we are looking for any sort of flash of production, as we don't need long-term help anymore,and Reyes is showing just that while leading off every day for the Tigers. He has been red hot lately, sporting a nine-game hitting streak with multihit games in an impressive seven of those nine games. You aren't going to get much power from Reyes, but he is rolling in batting average right now and has also swiped three bases in the last 11 games. The Tigers haven't been playing for anything for months now, but Reyes is locked into the leadoff spot and hot, which isn't an easy find combo. With that, I consider him a small bid in 12-team leagues where he is only 11 percent owned and a bit stronger bid in 15-teamerrs where he is 58 percent owned in the NFBC versions.

Adam Frazier. After starting the year hitting leadoff most games for the Pirates, Frazier was demoted down in the order but has recently regained that spot and finds himself on a real heater. As with Reyes, we're just looking for someone who will help right now, and Frazier is feeling it at the moment with five multihit games in the last seven He has even popped a couple homers in that run. Frazier is a batting average and runs scored player, and has nicely dropped his strikeout rate to a career low 11.8 percent to go with a swinging strike rate under seven percent. He isn't going to be someone to help you in the power categories with a hard hit rate under 30 percent, but this time of year is all about what categories you need. With eligibility at second base and the outfield, if you need average and runs, Frazier is someone you can ride right now and is worth a bid and is available in a lot of leagues at only 38 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues.

Starlin Castro. Hidden in the debacle of a season in Miami has been the exceptional second half that Castro is putting up right now. Since the break, Castro is hitting .320 with 11 homers and 40 RBI in only 50 games, a stat line that would help any fantasy team. Adding to his value, Castro has gained eligibility at third base to go with his usual second base. Castro has shown an impressive jump in his hard contact with a bump to 42 percent, which has moved even higher in the second half at 44.2 percent. Looking deeper at his second half finds more impressive numbers with a .909 OPS, 23.3 percent line drive rate and a 133 wRC+. I admit I didn't know just how good Castro has been for nearly two months now until I looked deeper into it, but at only 34 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers, he's an excellent add in leagues right now to ride this fantastic run he is on.

Series of the Weekend

Indians at Twins. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros have essentially locked up their divisions and the Twins could go a long way toward joining those two with a good series this weekend. On the flip side, the Indians, right in the middle of a vicious three-way AL Wild Card race, could insert themselves back in the Al Central race with a sweep this weekend, as they currently trail by 6.5 games. With 3.5 weeks left, in order to win the AL Central, the Indians are going to need to gain games in chunks, and there's no better way to do so than in a head-to-head series.

Jose Berrios was a popular helium guy in March drafts, and while he has had many flashes of brilliance this season, a tough second half has pushed his ERA on the season to 3.78 to go with a 1.25 Whip. While he has nicely lowered his walk rate to 2.33 BB/9, it's a bit concerning from a fantasy angle that his 2018 bump in strikeouts has regressed back this year to 8.7 K/9, while his swinging strike rate has dropped a bit to 10.7 percent. All three of his pitches have dropped off per Fangraphs' pitch values, and his velocity has also dropped to 92.6 mph. I still like Berrios, and when I watch him pitch, it feels like another level is definitely in there ready to be unlocked. It's been three full seasons where his ERA and FIP have all been between 3.75 and 3.90, and I am starting to think at some point he should be drafted based on what he clearly is (still really good), but maybe not with the upside for which he gets pushed up in drafts.

Jose Ramirez was hitting .327 with 40 RBI in 41 games after the All Star Break until his injury left a giant hole in the Indians lineup, but Francisco Lindor is doing his absolute best to fill that void. Lindor has been on a tear himself since the break, hitting .302 with 13 homers and 39 runs scored in his last 52 games. Lindor got off to a bit of a slow start after starting the year on the Injured List, but has posted another fantastic season, hitting .298 with 27 homers and 20 steals (and only four caught stealings) in 121 games.

After seeing a nice boost to his hard hit rate in 2018 to 41.6 percent, he has bumped it up even more to 43.5 percent this year and has also bumped his exit velocity to 91 mph. I put Lindor solidly in the top six overall for drafts next year, and if you made me answer right now, I would take Lindor fourth, right after Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich. I think Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts end up ahead of him next year in ADP, but if I can snag pick six and take Lindor last among that group, I will do so happily. If the Indians are going to find a way to snag a playoff spot, it will likely be because Lindor went wild and carried them these last 20 games.