Oak's Corner: Last Week Adds and Early 2020 Targets

In some ways it has all seemed really fast, in other ways, never-ending, but here we are in the last week of the baseball regular season. First of all, I want to thank everyone for reading the column all year long, hopefully it helped you have a better season, and the nice comments I get here or on Twitter or at NFBC/NFFC Live Events mean the world to me and are much appreciated. Also, a huge thanks for RotoWire for giving me the opportunity to write this column for the past three years, and as much as I enjoy the content here on the site, I like the people involved even more.

As we hit the final week of the season, I will again try to find free agents who may help you in the final week but I also will take a look forward and highlight a few early 2020 draft targets.

Early 2020 Targets

Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna's draft price is going to drop a bit heading into 2020 due to his .248 batting average and his counting stats being held down due to missing all of July with multiple fractures in his right hand. So while Ozuna has "only" 28 homers in a season where it feels like half the league has hit 30, I love much of his profile for a huge year in 2020. Ozuna is still only 28 (I know, I was surprised, too), and while the .248 average is a letdown this year, it also comes with a .263 BABIP, which I would bet heavily to bounce back to around his career .316 BABIP, especially with elite hard contact.

After bumping his hard hit rate over 40 percent for the first time ever in 2018, it has gone up again in 2019 to 48.4 percent, putting him seventh in baseball. His Statcast numbers look great too, with a career-high 91.9 mph average exit velocity and a 12.8 percent barrel rate that is over three percent higher than his prior peak. His strikeout rate did bump up a bit to 20.9 percent, but that isn't a number to worry about in this era, and his swinging strike rate is consistent with last year. Adding to his impressive profile is a 23.3 percent line drive, the highest he has had in the majors and another reason why I think the BABIP bounces back to at least his career norm next year. Ozuna's ADP in 38 NFBC Main Event drafts this season was 96.5, and I would guess the batting average drop makes that ADP fall a bit for 2020, and with a triple digit ADP, I will be all over Ozuna all spring at that price.

Carson Kelly. Once again, catcher has been an incredibly difficult spot in fantasy leagues, especially two-catcher leagues, although there were some nice cheap FAAB adds in Christian Vazquez and Roberto Perez, plus Mitch Garver was an obvious late-round gem. But there is always a paucity of great options (Danny Jansen was a disaster as a top-10 catcher selected, and it's clear Buster Posey is done as a fantasy resource) and for that reason Kelly very much interests me for 2020.

Kelly was one of the pieces acquired by Diamondbacks in the offseason Paul Goldschmidt deal and didn't figure much in fantasy drafts because the D'Backs had multiple options behind the plate. He was only drafted at all in 24 of 38 Main Events drafts. Kelly flashed some pop in Triple-A in 2017 with 10 homers in only 68 games, but every time the Cardinals called him up, he was brutal at the plate. All that changed this year as Kelly has mashed 18 homers in only 343 plate appearances, and his hard hit stats show a world of improvement. After a 29 percent hard hit rate last year (in very limited at bats, of course), Kelly has nearly doubled that to 49.1 percent, which leads all catchers who have at least 300 plate appearances.

Further, Kelly has shown impressive patience at the plate with a 13.1 percent walk rate, which is second best among all catchers, trailing only Yasmani Grandal. Kelly's .244 average and fewer than 20 homers won't pop off the page enough for him to rise too high in drafts, but in the back half of the draft, when I start to need a catcher, or even a second catcher if I took one early, Kelly's name will be at the top of my list.

Zack Wheeler. After a superb second half in 2018, Wheeler flew up draft boards this March and he ended up with an ADP of 64.2 in NFBC Main Event drafts and even snuck into the third round of at least one draft. Wheeler started the year very poorly with a 5.05 ERA in April, and his ERA was actually an ugly 4.71 through the first four months of the season. He has salvaged his year a bit in the final two months with a 2.73 ERA, and he has finally been able to limit the home run ball with only three allowed in those 56 innings. He has been even sharper as of late with one run allowed in each of his last four outings and could even get his ERA under 4.00 on the season with a strong last two starts.

Despite the down year, Wheeler has actually improved his strikeout to 8.9 K/9 and dropped his walk rate to 2.5 BB/9, and his FIP sits at a solid 3.50. His hard hit rate increased to 32 percent, but that number is very manageable in this era of hard contact and he has managed to maintain his strong ground ball profile with 44 percent grounders. After his first full season after a long four-year stretch of injuries, it's possible Wheeler had to figure out how to respond after a full year and I like the fact that he's finishing strong. The ERA will finish somewhere around 4.00, which could ease the hype going into 2020, but with pitching hard to find, he will still be popular, and I plan on being in on him in the fifth round in 15-teamers.

On a quick rapid fire, I love Eduardo Rodriguez' second half, and think the full breakout finally occurs next year. Also, I think Christian Walker's season is very real, and I like how he has adjusted and gotten himself out of multiple slumps during the season. Walker has hit the ball hard pretty much all year long, and I believe he'll present a nice power bat who won't hurt your average in the middle rounds of drafts.

Also, in the last year's bum category, I'm going to like a very late stab on Jurickson Profar, as no one will want him, and his MLB low .207 BABIP is going to bounce back. He has proven this year the 20-HR pop of 2018 is legit. The only negative is that he will lose his multiposition eligibility, as he'll only quality at second base, but I think he's going to pay off as a late bench middle infielder at a very low price.

FAAB Feelings

Miguel Rojas. Rojas isn't going to help you out with any power in the final week, but if you need batting average and/or runs, he makes for a very nice grab at the moment. The best aspect of Rojas right now is that he's hitting in the top two of the Marlins lineup every night, and while that is clearly not an explosive lineup, that spot gives him a lot of at-bats and a chance to score runs if anyone can knock him in (narrator: quite possibly not).

Rojas is an excellent contact guy with a 12.1 percent strikeout rate, has upped his walk rate nearly two percent this year and has impressively bumped his hard hit rate to 36.2 percent after never having a rate above 30 percent in the majors. While he is never going to be a huge producer, he has also upped his average exit velocity significantly to 87.3 mph after ranking near the bottom of the league in 2018. In addition, he has also swiped eight bags, and you could do a lot worse than Rojas in the final week, and while he does face some touch pitching in the Mets, he has seven games, and many starters will be out of games early this week.

Shed Long. Kyle Lewis got all the Mariners FAAB attention last week after his homer binge, but Long has quietly slotted into the Mariners leadoff spot on a daily basis over the last 10 days as Mallex Smith has lost any hold he once had on that spot. This another option who could thrive on opportunity for sure but also from how well Long has hit of late. Including Thursday's three-hit game, Long has now hit in seven straight with an impressive six multihit games in that stretch. He did not have a strong Triple-A season this year with only nine homers and one steal, but he showed a nice power/speed tool last year in Double-A with 12 homers and 19 steals. Long is swinging it really well and leading off, and that's really all we need to be intrigued for the final week. The Mariners do face the Astros for two and the A's for four, but the Astros will not have anything to play for and hopefully the A's won't either on the last couple of days.

Homer Bailey. I know, he's Homer Bailey, I do get that, and I even said as much when the A's traded for him, but there's no way around the fact that Bailey is on a fantastic run right now. In his last seven starts, Bailey has posted a 1.88 ERA over 43 innings with 45 strikeouts and only seven walks. He was fantastic in his most recent start against the Royals with a season-high 11 strikeouts over seven shutout innings. The A's rotation could move around a little bit this week, as Chris Bassitt has moved to the pen, and they are likely lining stuff up for the Wild Card, but as of now, Bailey is slated to pitch Tuesday at the Angels with a chance he comes back for a second start on Sunday in Seattle. If the A's need that game, he would pitch it normally, but if they didn't, I'd guess he either doesn't go or he throws three or four innings as a tune-up. Finding innings at all next week is tough, and while Bailey does have the blowup potential as we all know too well, I'm good riding the hot hand with Bailey right now, and we might even get 10 innings of stats out of him next week.

Alex Young. I have been a bit wary of Young this year with the lack of strikeouts at the MLB level, but in a week in which finding starters in free agency who will even pitch five innings is going to be tough, someone like Young who is lined up to pitch twice is definitely worth a bid. The first start is scheduled against the Cardinals, who will certainly be giving a full effort, but the second comes on the final Sunday against the Padres, and he could see a spring training type lineup that day for San Diego.

After a good start to his major league career than got a little bumpy in August, Young is closing the season nicely with a 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings in September. He was particularly impressive three starts ago when he twirled an eight-inning shutout with 12 strikeouts in Cincinnati. He has gone six straight outings allowing three earned runs or fewer, but did have an ugly 2.2-inning outing in there where he allowed five unearned runs. Young has found a way to get outs so far and has had very few blowup starts and with a chance for two starts this week, he will be at the top of my bid lists.

Series of the Weekend

Cardinals at Cubs. In a season with some blowouts in the division races, we get a massive series on the second to last weekend in Wrigley. Not only are the Cubs trying to make up a now four-game difference after the Cardinals' wild extra-inning win Thursday night in the NL Central, but they also find themselves a game back of the Brewers for the second Wild Card. The good news for the Cubs is that this series is at home, as they have the second most home wins in the National league, but are only 31-44 on the road. The Cardinals could absolutely lock in the division with a series win and even with a split, they would be in a great spot heading into the final week.

After many years of draft hype followed by disappointment, Kolten Wong has thrived in 2019 and has especially done so as of late. Wong has been the Cardinals best offensive player since the All Star Break, hitting .330 with a .898 OPS, 18 extra base hits and nine stolen bases. The second-half heat has pushed Wong's average on the season to .282, and he now has a career high 23 stolen bases, a huge jump from the seven steals he posted in 127 games.

Wong has matched his 2014 season that initially got everyone so excited but is now doing it with a strong batting average while bumping his hard hit rate to 34 percent (per Fangraphs), which is the first time in his career that he has topped 30 percent. Interestingly, his Statcast numbers don't paint nearly as nice a scenario, as his 83.7 mph average exit velocity puts him in the bottom 10 in baseball among players with 200 batted ball events, and he only has 10 barrels all year for a meager 2.5 percent barrel rate. If Wong can keep up the stolen bases in 2020, he will maintain his value, but his Statcast numbers make me think the homers are capped, and I'm concerned about the batting average repeating with his batted ball profile. Wong has been a great value this year but likely will be a pass for me in 2020 at the new elevated price tag.

Before I discuss Saturday's starter, Jose Quintana, I have to acknowledge just how crazy well the Cubs acquisition of Nicholas Castellanos has worked out. Since joining the Cubs on August 1, Castellanos has hit .333 with 15 homers and 35 RBI in only 44 games, and prior to the trade, he had only hit 11 homers and was only hitting .273 in 100 games with the Tigers; what an acquisition, and it's wild to think where the Cubs would be right now without that move.

Quintana, once a model of consistency, has been a roller coaster this year, with some strong runs mixed in with poor stretches and even two outings when he allowed eight earned runs. It has all added up to a 4.37 ERA, which is going to be the worst of his major league career and his third straight over 4.00 after five in a row under 4.00. His strikeout rate spike of 2017 (9.9 K/9 that year) is now a distant memory, as while strikeouts have gone up the last couple years across the league, but he is now down to a 8.0 K/9 rate with only an 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. He has fixed the walk issues he has had in 2018, but he's allowing significantly more hard contact than ever before with a 38 percent hard hit rate and an 88.7 mph average exit velocity, both career highs. Without a strong strikeout rate on which to fall back to go with his ratio roller coaster, I will pass on Quintana in 2020 drafts.

Thanks again for reading all year, best of luck to everyone in the final week of the season and Go A's!