Oak's Corner: Looking Ahead to 2020; Focusing on 2019

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Updated on August 16, 2019 10:15PM EST

With six-plus weeks left in the season, I'm still fully committed to finishing strong in 2019, but there was a lot of talk this week about what the 2020 first round may look like. While I haven't researched nearly enough to know who I like at what spots, this is what I think the 2020 first round ADP will look like, with the obvious that the last six weeks will impact this some based on performance and/or injury (especially with someone like Max Scherzer).

2) Mike Trout

I think this top six will be pretty rock solid, with maybe the order swapped, and of course some starting pitchers will jump in there in some drafts, especially the NFBC Main Event, but I think when the ADP dust settles, this would be a pretty locked in top six. Personally, I think I go Betts and maybe Lindor over Bellinger, but these top six are all so great, I'm not sure it will matter which spot you have in the top six, but it will be a really nice start to lock in one of them.

After the top six, I think a lot will depend on how your league treats pitching, but it gets wide open quickly with a mix of starting pitchers, established veteran studs, and young up and comers in the next 12 to 15 picks.

2) Mike Trout

9) Gerrit Cole

10) Jacob deGrom

11) Trea Turner (the stolen base upside will be too sexy for him to get out of the first round)

12) Nolan Arenado

13) Justin Verlander

14) Freddie Freeman

15) Fernando Tatis Jr. (someone in every league is going to be the one to grab him around here)

Right at the edge of the first round and heading into the early second round, I see Javier Baez, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Walker Buehler, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez (assuming the Summer of J Ram stays warm) and maybe even a rising and sexy Yordan Alvarez. Even with all these names, I am sure I am missing someone else who will sneak up here, let me know in the comments if there is anyone you think gets into the first round whom I totally left out.

Those names after the top six will end up in a lot of different orders in every draft, and the pitchers will probably be a bit lower in non-Main Event leagues, but in the 15-teamers, those back half teams will want to get an ace in an environment where aces are hard to find, and who knows what we are looking at with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and even Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard off their 2019 seasons.

On a side note, who the heck ends up the top closer in 2020 drafts? Josh Hader? Kirby Yates? Aroldis Chapman? Closer is going to be a total mess yet again, but then again, it can't be worse than this year where the clear top two closer picks in drafts were Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen.

Damn, I love talking drafts and draft strategy, and could do so all day, but time to get back to finishing strong in 2019!

The Week That Was

Speaking of guys near the end of the first round, Jose Altuve is rapidly making his case to move back into the first round discussion. After a rough start to the year, including a nearly six-week stint on the Injured List, Altuve has been on absolute fire since the All Star Break. In those 30 games, Altuve is hitting .383 with an incredible 33 runs, 29 RBI and 12 homers. With that recent run, Altuve is now up to .307 on the year with 22 homers as he looks to cruise by his career high of 24. In the process, he is also posting a career high 37.9 percent hard hit rate, and with 21 barrels, he also has his highest barrel rate at 7.2 percent.

The one clear issue in Altuve's profile this year is the incredibly low four stolen bases. He dropped to 17 last year, and I think everyone figured at 29 years old and being on an Astros team that didn't need him to run, that the 2018 dropoff was real. However, that level was assumed to be in the 15 to 20 range for 2019, not a complete collapse to single digits in both steals and attempts. The average and counting stats (especially the runs) still have massive potential with his lineup spot and his contact profile, but if he is going to steal less than 10 bags, even with the increased homers, I cannot think about him until the middle of the second round in 2020.

FAAB Feelings

The quest for two-start pitchers down the stretch continues as we try and make up ground in the pitching categories, or try and extend or at least hold leads in those precious categories. I wanted to highlight Dillon Peters with two starts this week coming off three straight solid starts, but with his matchups in Texas and in Houston (I did just watch the Astros bash five homers off the A's Thursday night), I don't think I can pull the trigger on that. I own him in a 15-teamer, but I haven't even decided if I can use him there for that dance.

Kolby Allard. Allard was acquired by the Rangers at the trade deadline in the deal that sent relief pitcher Chris Martin to the Braves. Allard has now made two starts for the Rangers since getting called up, and while he hasn't gone deep into games, he has held his own with five runs allowed through 10 innings while striking out 12. The walks are a concern in his two outings with six already, but he has been a good control guy in his time in the minors, regularly posting walk rates under 3.00 BB/9.

Allard wasn't great in Triple-A this season (seems like only Zac Gallen was) with a 4.17 ERA in 110 innings, but was strong last year with a 2.72 ERA in 112.1 innings. Further, Allard does have a nice pedigree behind him as he was the 14th overall pick of the Braves in 2015 draft out of San Clemente High School where he attended with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. He probably isn't going to light up the strikeout scoreboard, as his fastball usually sits in the low 90s, but scouting reports indicate he has a strong changeup and curve ball. I watched a bunch of his start against the Blue Jays on Thursday and I think he'll be a pitcher who uses an effective pitch mix to keep guys off balance and get outs.

The appeal this week for Allard is the matchups, as he gets a home start against the Angels and then faces the White Sox in Chicago. The Angels are middle of the pack in runs since the All Star Break, and the White Sox currently rank 28th with only 119 runs in their last 33 games. Most importantly for this discussion, Allard is quite available in leagues, as he is only owned in 44 percent of the NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues and a scant two percent in the NFBC 12-teamers. We are playing week by week at this point of the season, and I like Allard as an add this week for a few strikeouts and a chance for some wins as he keeps the Rangers offense in games.

Mike Yastrzemski. Yastrzemski was added in a bunch of leagues when the Giants made their four-game trip to Coors Field in mid-July, but after homering twice in that series, he was dropped in a lot of leagues and is now only 30 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues. He has found himself playing most days, and as a lefty, even when he sits, he's on the heavy side of the platoon.

Since the All Star Break, Yastrzemski has been very good, hitting .295 with eight homers and 25 RBI in only 125 plate appearances. In that stretch, he has also impressively dropped his strikeout rate to 20 percent (now 24.2 percent on the year) and has also been stinging the ball at an impressive 46.1 percent hard hit rate. Oracle Park (still no) is going to hurt his home run total in his home games, but he hits a lot of fly balls, is hitting the ball really hard right now and playing a lot. He should be owned in way more leagues than he is owned, and could be a nice boost as your fifth outfielder or even as a bench bat down the stretch.

A Closer Look

The Braves made a number of trades at the deadline to try and bolster their pen and to get Luke Jackson out of the ninth inning. They added Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Mark Melancon with the plan that the latter two would serve as setup men to Greene. Greene has been very poor since joining the Braves, allowing runs in four of his seven outings, blowing two saves and somehow allowing a ridiculous 15 baserunners in his 5.1 innings. He has been removed from the closer role for the moment, and it appeared Melancon would get a shot at the gig, and while he was on a really good stretch of outings, he has since given up six runs in his last three appearances, including an ugly four-hit, 0.2 inning outing on Wednesday.

Just to add to the party, Martin has also struggled with six runs allowed in his 4.2 innings with the Braves. The Braves are a really good team at 21 games over .500, and their closer is someone we definitely want in fantasy leagues, but where do they go from here? After locking down a clean save on Tuesday, Melancon likely had a chance to get some rope with a couple more saves, but after the explosion Wednesday, he now could very well be back in a committee with Martin and Greene. I still think Greene is the guy of the group whom I want, as even with the rough beginning in Atlanta, he still has an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout rate of nearly 10.0 K/9 on the season. The Braves also gave up some legit value to acquire Greene, and I think that probably buys him another real shot at locking down the job. If someone in your league cut bait on Greene (he was dropped in 10 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues), I would certainly try and grab him in FAAB this weekend, and if you play in a trade league, I might float a severely discounted offer to the frustrated Greene owner.

Series of the Weekend

Dodgers at Braves. There are some really good matchups this weekend in the American League with the Indians visiting the Yankees, and Astros headed to Oakland to face off against the A's (they had an exciting first game with 10 homers hit, a record for the Oakland Coliseum), but this battle of the two best records in the National League has to take the cake this weekend. Not only are the Dodgers and Braves the two best teams in the NL, but it's by a sizeable margin, as they are the only two teams with a winning percentage over .550. It's possible the Braves could be caught with a 5.5 game lead, and while you just never know in any short playoff series, these two squads are barreling toward a great NLCS matchup and give us a preview of it this weekend at beautiful SunTrust Field.

In a season where finding starting pitching on FAAB has been very difficult, Mike Soroka has been one of the biggest adds of the season. Whatever your bid on him was after his callup, he has already easily paid it off. He has posted a 2.32 ERA in his 128 innings, but the strikeout rate has been low at 7.2 K/9. Even with the lack of strikeouts, Soroka has remained very effective and has allowed zero or one run in five of his last seven starts, although it should be noted one of those starts was a very frustrating 4.2 innings, as he wasn't able to pitch long enough to try and qualify for the win. Watching Soroka pitch is fun, as he mixes pitches well and limits the walks, which has helped him keep the Whip under 1.10. Soroka will be a fascinating guy to follow in 2020 drafts, as while the ratios are very sexy, everyone wants strikeouts, and that shoulder issue still lingers in the background, but if those concerns causes him to slip further than he should, I'll be on board for sure and have loved watching him on my squads all year.

I feel like the greatness of the 2019 season of Clayton Kershaw has, somehow, been overlooked. Kershaw's ADP fell near the end of spring, as he clearly wasn't going to be ready by opening day, but all he has done since his return is take the ball every fifth day, and he's the only pitcher in baseball to throw at least six innings in every single start, a truly remarkable feat in this year of homers and likely juiced balls. Kershaw has now posted a 2.63 ERA in 137 innings, all while bumping up his strikeout rate to 9.3 K/9 and maintaining a walk rate under 2.00 BB/9. He has also managed to reverse the swinging strike rate drop that was a concern in draft season up to 12.6 percent.

Kershaw's hard hit rate is the one concern in his profile, sitting at a career high 42.6 percent after seeing it rise about 30 percent last year for the first time in his career. While the hard contact has risen, he has managed to lower his line drive rate to 18 percent while inducing nearly 50 percent ground balls. Kershaw has been a huge value for fantasy owners at his draft price (ADP of 73 in the NFBC Main Event drafts), but in many people's minds, his season will be decided by how he performs in the playoffs. I'm not a Dodgers fan, but I really want to see Kershaw have a dominant playoff run this year to shut down that narrative, as he is an all-time great and deserves not to have that brought up every time his name comes up.