Oak's Corner: Not Giving Up on KD Quite Yet

The Week That Was

Khris Davis. As an A's fan, I have been asked many times over the last month about what to do with the struggling Khris Davis and whether it's time to drop him in leagues. The annual 40-homer slugger went more than a month without a homer, only has 17 all year and his usually consistent (and much written about) .247 batting average is currently sitting at .228. Davis ran into a wall at PNC Park, missed some time and clearly altered his swing for a bit, but I watch him a lot and his swing looks back to healthy to me. However, during this tough stretch, he seems to be guessing a lot at the plate, which is putting him in some tough counts with swings and misses or easy outs with poorly hit balls when he doesn't get the pitch he's looking for, but swings anyway.

Since Davis returned off the Injured List on June 1, he has hit .214 with only five homers and has struck out at a 28 percent rate. His hard hit rate in that stretch is still really good at 48.8 percent, but with a mere 30 percent fly ball rate (in 2018, it was 48.8 percent over the course of the season). After watching Davis almost daily for the last four seasons, oddly enough for someone who always ends up with the same batting average, he's as wildly streaky as any player I can remember. When he is going badly, it appears he may never get another hit, but when he is locked in, it seems like every fly ball goes out of the park.

I think Davis clearly played at less than 100 percent for a while, and then went into one of his cold streaks, but over the last four or five games, he looks to be swinging it a little better and I think a really good run is coming. First of all, don't drop Davis, as the upside is far too large as long as he is in the lineup, but if the owner in your league is finally over him after four months, I'd love to grab KD (the only one left, so the nickname is a lot easier now) for a strong discount in any league.

Keston Hiura. Hiura was part of the massive free agency weekend we all remember from mid-May, but was only up in the majors for a couple of weeks before he was the victim of a Brewers roster crunch. Since his recall on June 28, all the dude has done is flat out rake. Since that date, Hiura has hit .340 with six homers and six stolen bases in 28 games all with an incredibly high 52.9 percent hard hit rate. The one negative in his profile is the strikeout rate just over 30 percent since his recall and 31.4 percent on the year, but prior to this season, he was usually around 20 percent in the minors. With a 26.3 percent rate in Triple-A this year, it could be an approach change to bring more power, but I still don't think we are going to see rates in the 30s for Hiura long term.

The 11 homers with the Brewers are impressive, and while we all know Triple-A numbers should be taken with a few grains of salt this year, he does now have 30 combined homers this year. It's easy to forget he is only 22, and it's great to see the increased speed from him this year, compiling 14 steals between Triple-A and MLB. Hiura will be very interesting in drafts next year as a speed/power combo guy qualifying at a middle infield spot hitting in the middle of a good lineup in a great home park. I'm not going to be surprised if Hiura sneaks into the Top 50 of ADP next season by the time it's all said and done.

Masahiro Tanaka. Coming into this season, I thought Tanaka was a nice bargain in the eighth or ninth round of a 15-team draft off a solid 2018 with a 3.75 ERA and just over a strikeout per inning. Aside from a few gems, mostly against the Rays, Tanaka has been a total mess, and it has just gotten worse lately. Overall on the year, he's sporting a 4.78 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate drop down to 7.7 K/9. To further concern his owners, his swinging strike rate has plummeted from 14.1 percent in 2018 down to 10.5 percent this year. Tanaka's velocity is about the same, but his effectiveness certainly isn't, especially on his splitter, a pitch that held a positive pitch value on Fangraphs in every season of his career, but has been a significantly negative pitch for him this season. Tanaka's walk rate has edged up a little bit to 2.3 BB/9, but the bigger concern is the 40.3 percent hard hit rate, which is the highest of his career.

Tanaka actually started the year really well, with an era in the low 3s through the first two months of the season, but since June 1, he has been a train wreck with a brutal 6.83 ERA, highlighted by an insane 18 runs in 4.1 recent innings against the Red Sox. The Red Sox debacles have clearly skewed his overall ratios, but even not counting those two starts, he has allowed four or more runs in two of his last four starts, and one of them when he only allowed two runs but had to be yanked with no outs in the fifth inning. It's hard to figure what to do with Tanaka at the moment, as finding a replacement is hard. As of now, I'm still running him out there in 15-teamers (not vs. Boston!) and deciding on him due to matchup each week in a 12-teamer, but I'm not quite dropping him yet.

FAAB Feelings

Daniel Norris. Norris hasn't been great this year, with a 4.67 ERA in 111.2 innings for the Tigers, but is an excellent matchup play next week with two home starts against the White Sox and Royals, both teams that reside in the bottom five in baseball in Team OPS in July and over the course of the season. Norris has actually pitched well in his last couple of starts, allowing only two earned runs in 11.1 while punching out 13. Also, if you are looking for wins, he misses Lucas Giolito, so the Tigers have a good chance of scoring a decent amount of runs in both games.

Norris has issues with home runs for sure but he has upped his ground ball rate significantly to 44.5 percent this year, so hopefully he can keep these two weak offenses in the park this week. The AL Central is going to be a prime spot for us to stream the final eight weeks of the season, as non-Twins and Indians offenses in the division are really bad. Most importantly, when it comes to free agents, Norris is extremely available right now, as he's only owned at 24 percent in NFBC 15-teamers and a mere two percent in the 12-teamers. He isn't a long term play, but if you need some strikeouts and wins this week with a chance for good ratios against two really bad offenses, this is the shot to take.

Vince Velasquez. Velasquez is much more highly owned than Norris but is still available in half of the NFBC 12-teamers. He's someone who could turn into more than just a streamer. Velasquez has moved into the rotation and dodged the Jason Vargas bullet, as the Phillies decided to send the struggling Zach Eflin to the bullpen. Velasquez has made four starts in July, posting a 3.54 ERA and an impressive 25 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. The strikeouts have been great all year with a 10.7 K/9 strikeout rate. The home runs are his major issue with a 2.26 HR/9 home run rate. His velocity is up nearly a mile per hour at 94.5, and his swinging strike rate has bumped up a touch to 12 percent.

Even during his rough 2018 with a 4.85 ERA in 146.2 innings, the FIP was 3.75 and he was bitten by a really low 66.8 percent strand rate. One can squint and see Velasquez being an asset down the stretch as an every-week starter and definitely one for teams that need strikeouts. With two starts this week, it's the time to grab him now, as that ownership percentage is not going to stick there for very long.

Mark Canha. With Ramon Laureano sadly out for at least four weeks, Canha is in line for a nice bump in regular playing time, as he will be in center field most nights for the A's. Through only 279 plate appearances, Canha has already matched his career high of 17 homers and has improved his approach at the plate along the way, too. He has dropped his strikeout rate just under 20 percent and has bumped his walk rate significantly to easily a career high 14 percent.

After three hits on Thursday, Canha is now up to .254 on the year and with a .261 BABIP, we might see a little run up in his average before the year is done. The one concern is that despite the increased homers, he's not hitting the ball as hard as last year, sporting only a 32 percent hard hit rate on Fangraphs, but his exit velocity has actually increased from 2018 to 88.1 mph. The biggest plus from a fantasy aspect is the increased playing time, and it will come from somewhere in the middle of the A's lineup. He has even been hitting cleanup for much of July while Khris Davis has been slumping.

A Closer Look

The trading deadline didn't cause quite as much havoc as we may have feared, but with Shane Greene, Roenis Elias and Sergio Romo getting dealt, there are some closer jobs that opened up. While none of the spots opened up into extremely obvious plays, the strongest one is probably Joe Jimenez with the Tigers, who we discussed a few weeks ago when looking for closer stashes before the deadline. His ERA is elevated at 4.93, and he has given up too many homers, but he does have a big strikeout rate at 12.6 and would seem to be the clear next man up.

I would probably avoid the Seattle situation in shallow leagues, but in a deeper league, Anthony Bass, with a 3.49 ERA in 28.1 innings, is who I would bid on. He has also been strong as of late, which matters a lot in such a fluid bullpen situation. He has thrown six straight scoreless outings with nine strikeouts in those six innings. It's a super small sample, but I'm assuming Seattle just goes with the hot hand, at least until Austin Adams, which doesn't appear especially imminent.

In Miami, I really liked Nick Anderson to close when Romo got traded, but of course he was also dealt away at the deadline. I would assume we see a bit of a committee approach in Miami, but if I had to bid on someone, it would be Jarlin Garcia, who has been effective for the Marlins with a 2.51 ERA in his 32.1 innings, but it would be a small bid if anything.

The most interesting recent closer development may be happening in Arizona, where Greg Holland has lost the job, and Archie Bradley received the next save opportunity. Bradley has been hovering over that closer job for a couple of years, and it seems like the Diamondbacks have gone out of their way to keep him in his role and choose someone else to take the ninth inning. He has struggled this year with walks with a 5.1 BB/9 rate, but has also seen a huge bump in his strikeout rate from 9.4 K/9 to 12.2 K/9. While his ERA is a bit ugly at 4.18, his FIP paints a bit of a better picture at 3.18.

Most intriguing when looking at Bradley possibly taking over the role is how good he has been lately, as he went all of July without allowing a run scored against him in 9.1 innings while striking out 14. Bradley has shown flashes of being a really good reliever with a 1.73 ERA in 73 innings in 2017, and he's one guy among all these names who could really run with the job down the stretch. Despite the D'Backs job being open last weekend, Bradley wasn't too popular of an add and is only owned in 37 percent of NFBC 15-teamers and a really low seven percent of the 12-teamers. If he locks down another save over the weekend and it's clear he is the guy, his price will clearly rise, so Arizona is a bullpen situation to definitely watch all weekend.

Series of the Weekend

The obvious here is Red Sox – Yankees, but they just played last weekend, and the Yankees are up 10 games on the Red Sox, so I'm going to move to a series in the wild NL Central with the Cubs hosting the Brewers. Going into Friday's games, the Cardinals lead the NL Central but are only one game up on the Cubs and two up on the Brewers. Every time these three teams play each other down the stretch is going to be huge to determine who ends up on top.

The Cubs acquired Nicholas Castellanos at the trade deadline, and it looks like he's going to slot in as their right fielder. He was actually hitting second in his debut with the Cubs on Thursday; clearly a fantastic spot if he sticks there. I thought Castellanos might break out with the power in the last couple years, but he has not quite done so and only has 11 homers so far this year, a very low number with the current MLB ball. He always has a high hard hit rate with a rate over 40 percent in each of the last three years, but he hasn't caught many breaks this year with a 9.2 percent HR/FB after being over 13 percent in the last three seasons. His swinging strike rate was an issue last year at 15.8 percent, but he has taken some nice steps this year with a 12.9 percent rate. I really like his chances to get hot down the stretch for the Cubs, especially if he's going to hit second, and I would love to grab him in a trade before he really gets going in Chicago.

The Brewers pitching staff continues to struggle, and with their best starter, Brandon Woodruff on the Injured List, they are really struggling to find guys to get them deep into games. The godsend of their staff continues to comes from the surprising season of Chase Anderson. He was the only Brewers starter who had good results in July, and they were really good with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.03 Whip in 31 innings. I have been scared of Anderson with his tendency to give up a lot of homers and not contribute many strikeouts, but he has bumped up the strikeout rate this year to 8.7 K/9, as his swinging strike rate is at a career high 11.3 percent.

Anderson's velocity has jumped up to 93.4 mph, but I still shudder a bit when I see his hard hit rate over 40 percent. However, a look at his game log is really impressive, as even though he doesn't tend to go deep into games, he now has seven straight outings allowing two runs or fewer and he somehow has only allowed four runs or more in two starts all year. He's still available in 40 percent of NFBC 12-teamers and presents a nice add, especially for teams needing wins, as he feels due for some run support luck with only five wins on the season despite his impressive game log.