Oak's Corner: Opening Day Is Finally Here!

I am writing this with Opening Day games on, and I admit, while the lack of fans is a touch weird, it is phenomenal to have live games on, both to obviously watch, but also to have as background noise while working, well except for when Alex Rodriguez referred to the Astros as "sleepers" this season. This was a really fun week of drafts and I drafted three teams over the last seven days. While my big baseball drafts are always among my favorites days of the year, this time felt even a little more special, as we weren't sure we were ever going to get them and that made me appreciate it just that little bit more. Hopefully, we will all be drafting in person and seeing everyone in this great community again next year!

Opening Day started with quite a bang, as two of the top 30 players in recent drafts missed their openers. Juan Soto tested positive for COVID-19, and Clayton Kershaw went on the Injured List with some back stiffness that surfaced while lifting weights on Wednesday. This wild first day brought up the question I have been asked many times about this short season: Will it be a lot more random or lucky than most seasons? There is no doubt a season that's 37 percent as long as normal is going to have more variance, as not only do players not have the entire season to normalize their production through slumps and streaks, but fantasy managers won't have time to grind and manage their way to the top of the leaderboard. Baseball normally is such long season that it takes so much work in-season that the better managers often (not always of course) find a way to be competitive as the season goes through the dog days of summer.

However, I also believe this season is going to be so different that it's going to take a lot of skill to adapt and adjust to issues that arise during the season, and if the first day is any indication, there will be a lot of them. Of course, there are going to be some teams that are hampered by missed games that even the world's greatest fantasy manager won't be able to make it work, but the ability to react and be flexible is going to be extremely key in this 60-game sprint. I'm usually especially patient with struggling or injured players, but I'm going to have to morph and be less stubborn (good luck with that!) than usual and willing to cut bait on slumping players, much like many MLB baseball managers have noted they will have to be, too.

In addition, you are going to want as many useable spots on your benches for Monday and Friday moves (if you play under NFBC rules – or every day in a daily league) as we are definitely going to get midweek news you'll want to be able to react to. This season is going to be maddening at times, but I'm looking at it as a huge challenge and trying to learn along the way. Good luck to everyone, and I look forward to breaking down actual box scores and results next week!

FAAB Feelings

Without any games being played so far (well, fine, two games), I don't have any video or stats to find FAAB players yet, so this week I'll focus on trying to identify some two-start pitchers for next week who may available in free agency. It's something I'll likely try and do most of the season, as wins and strikeouts (and heck, innings in general) are going to be really tough to find this season, and every win is going to be even more golden than usual. As a result, I'll be pretty aggressive on the bottom section of my pitching staff every week to try to find really good matchups for pitchers with one start as well as the two-start guys.

Week one is tough for FAAB because everyone has very recently drafted their teams and did so with the upcoming schedule on their screen, but I'll still try to identify players who may be available in your leagues with two starts this week. If you are in a thinner league or maybe drafted a while ago, I won't go in depth on these pitchers, but if two-starter pitchers such as Aaron Civale, Josh James, Chris Bassitt, Yonny Chirinos, and Austin Voth are available, they would all be adds for me. I assume they were all drafted in most 12- and 15-team leagues, but if not, I particularly like James and Civale, but also think Bassitt is a must add due to his matchups this week as well.

Kyle Wright – Wright got a quick cup of coffee with the Braves last year (and six innings in 2018) that went poorly, but it was only 19.2 innings, so I'm pretty willing to just toss that out. Wright had solid strikeout and walk numbers in Triple-A last year with 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. The ERA wasn't great at 4.17 as he had issues with the home run ball at 1.04 HR/9. On the plus side, the strikeouts look to be legit, as he had a 12 percent swinging strikeout rate in Triple-A last year and he has good velocity at 94.6 mph. Wright's matchups aren't the greatest this week as he visits Tampa Bay for his first start, and then is home against the Mets for the second start. This week, I'll use Wright  in deeper leagues, but I also like adding him even if you don't want to throw him for these matchups because he could end up being a solid guy who could stick on your roster.

Pablo Lopez – Lopez is an interesting case, as you have to take a bit of a leap of faith on him on based on the positive reports from camp and the addition of a new pitch, a cutter, to his arsenal. Lopez had his first extended taste of the majors last year, throwing 111.1 innings for the Marlins. It didn't go well as he had an ERA of 5.09, although his FIP was a lot better at 4.28. The strikeouts weren't there at 7.7 K/9, but the control was strong with a walk rate of 2.2 BB/9. His swinging strike rate wasn't big at 10.2 percent but was higher in the minors and, with an additional pitch, he might be able to push up those strikeout number to one that would pair nicely with his control. 

The biggest aspect that makes me interested in Lopez is his nice matchups, as both of his starts come at home, and the first is against the Orioles, who figure to be a very poor offense, especially away from Camden Yards. His second start is against the Nationals, but if Soto is still out the lineup, they don't look nearly as formidable without him and the free agent departure Anthony Rendon. I like both starts being in Miami and am intrigued by the positive comments from pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre and the new pitch mix. I'll put small bids on Lopez this week ahead of his two starts and plan to watch his starts to see if the improvements look real to me.

A Closer Look

As we enter the season, there are multiple closing situations that will need close monitoring to see how they play out with actual games going on. Perhaps the most murky, at least for teams considered to be able to win a decent amount of games, is in St. Louis. After last season, it was believed that Giovanny Gallegos would be the closer coming off his strong 2019, but in the offseason, rumors surfaced that hard throwing righty Ryan Helsley might find himself in the ninth inning for the Redbirds. As we came into Summer Camp, Gallegos was away from the team for undisclosed reasons, which were guessed to be COVID related, and while he joined the team on Sunday, he isn't on the Cardinals roster to start the season but could presumably join it quickly.

Out of nowhere earlier this week, manager Mike Shildt, while announcing that Kwang-Hyun Kim was not going to be their fifth starter, shocked everyone by saying Kim was going to the back end of the pen and likely would close games. Kim had been a starter almost his entire career in the KBO and was clearly stretched out to be a starter by throwing five innings in the Cardinals' last intra-squad outing. Sticking to his word, Shildt used Kim in the ninth in a save situation in their final exhibition game on Wednesday, and all Kim did was strike out all three batters he faced, and Shildt commented after the game that showed why Kim is in that spot.

In his time in the KBO, Kim – albeit as a starter and guys do ramp it up as a reliever – wasn't a big strikeout guy, never averaging more than a strikeout per inning, but his last two seasons were his best at 8.6 and 8.5 strikeouts per nine. He has also fixed his control issues, which were rampant through most of his career, posting walk rates under 2.0 K/9 in his last two seasons. The Cardinals must see something up close to make this move, but I'm likely not betting on a 32-year-old guy who has never been a closer without a lot of strikeouts suddenly succeeding out of the gate at closer.

Ryan Helsley, who was the guy going highest in drafts for a bit, had a good debut in 2019 with a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings, however, his strikeouts were low at 7.9 K/9, but he did keep the walks under 3.0 BB/9. Helsley does throw hard, with an average fastball of 97.8 mph last year, but the pitch didn't fair well, as he allowed a .561 SLG with the pitch in 2019, albeit in a short sample.

I still think Gallegos is the best pitcher in the pen as he was fantastic in 2019 with a 2.31 ERA in 74 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are what you want from a closer, too, with 11.3 K/9 and 1.95 BB/9 last season. He had some solid strikeout seasons in the minors, too, and certainly looks like a closer in the making, but it's possible the Cardinals just want to use him in a setup or high-leverage role of some sort based on matchups. The Cardinals closer matters, as they should be a solid team, so it's a bit different than trying to figure out the mess of someone like the Giants. Possession is even bigger than normal with the short season, but in a murky situation like this, I'd probably take the best pitcher who' s also the cheapest, and in a deeper league with trades, I'd try to grab Gallegos on the super cheap while he is still off the roster.

Series of the Weekend

Twins at White Sox – Two of the most discussed teams this offseason match up for an opening series that should give us a preview of the top of the AL Central (along with the Indians). The Twins offense was an absolute monster last year, leading all of baseball with 307 homers, featuring eight players with 20 or more homers, and now they add Josh Donaldson to the mix. To supplement all the boppers on offense, they also strengthened the pitching staff by adding Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda. On the White Sox side, the excitement comes from an insurgence of high-level young players in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert (and soon to be Nick Madrigal) pairing with Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. The White Sox will be exciting and will score, and while they may be a year away, all their young guys look ready to hit now, plus they also feature the breakout ace of 2019, Lucas Giolito.

Jimenez is a very interesting player coming into 2020 after a rookie year druing which he hit .267 with 31 homers and was highly respected this year in drafts, with an NFBC Main Event ADP of 67.4, a fifth-round pick. When looking at Jimenez, I like that while many rookies fade in-season as they tire and pitchers start to get a good scouting report on them, Jimenez significantly improved from the first to the second half. He showed plenty of pop in the first half with 16 homers but hit only .241 and was striking out at a troublesome 28.7 percent clip.

The power repeated in the second half, but Jimenez hit .292 and dropped the strikeout rate to 24.5 percent and posted a 128 2RC+ in the final few months. In his first year, Jimenez looked really good from a Statcast perspective, too, posting a barrel rate, hard hit rate and exit velocity all in the 86th percentile or higher, really impressive for a guy in his first time around the league. The strikeouts are certainly an issue, but I like the improvement, and we often see elevated strikeout issues for rookies ,and Jimenez's strikeout rates in the minors were consistently at or under 20 percent. He could step up another level really quickly if he can conquer that, and the other team across town is likely to regret the Jose Quintana trade pretty heavily over the next few years.

The magic of Nelson Cruz has really become something to watch over the last few years. Every year we start to hear it might be the year when Cruz finally feels his age, but this six-year stretch is truly incredible, as he has mashed between 37 and 44 homers in each of the last six seasons. Cruz did miss a big chunk of games last year, but he made up for it by hitting 41 homers and driving in 108 runs in only 120 games. Hitting in the middle of this Twins lineup is a fantastic spot for runs and RBI, and Cruz would be my bet to lead the American League in RBI.

As for guys who light up the red on the Statcast page, Cruz is king among them, posted a 19.9 percent barrel rate last year to go with back to back years with a hard hit rate over 51 percent. His hard hit rate, barrel rate and exit velocity were all at the 98th percentile or above last season, just truly absurd. He's 40 now, but I'm going to bet that raking continues until Nellie gives me a reason to jump off.