Oak's Corner: Prospect FAAB Bonanza

The Week That Was

One of the more enjoyable things about baseball each season is when we see a player considered just solid break out in a huge way, and it seems like it happens a lot more in baseball than any other sport. Anthony Santander has been the biggest offensive breakout so far this season, as he currently trails only Fernando Tatis and Mike Trout (decent company I'd say) with his nine homers. Santander had a very quiet mini-breakout last season with 20 homers in only 93 games and did not spark a lot of draft interest with an ADP of 331 across 37 NFBC Main Event drafts. Santander didn't have big strikeout issues last year with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate, but he has greatly improved upon that number so far with a really low 11.5 percent strikeout rate.

Santander's Statcast numbers all have improved, too, as he has boosted his hard hit rate to 41.2 percent and his barrel rate to 10.6 percent. Looking at his profile, the step up he displayed between 2018 and 2019 is usually something I really like to target among younger guys deeper in the draft, and while I had him as someone I was fine with at the price, I clearly should have given him a deeper look predraft and made him a target (I always find it valuable to look back on guys and see if I should've seen anything coming, as it hones my draft prep for the next season). Santander plays half his games in a great home park, and while it's probably impossible to trade for him, I also wouldn't aggressively look to move him unless you are blown away, as he's a hold for me right now. I think more good is on the way.  

Jesse Winker was a big target for me in 2019, both in drafts and as a trade target early in the season, but it never really came together as he sat against almost all lefties and then was banged up a lot over the final two months of the season. He ended up with a .269 average with 16 homers, nothing that would have done a lot for you in a year where everyone homered all season. Looking healthy to start 2020, Winker has been absolutely on fire, hitting .357 so far with six homers and the hot streak has pushed into the middle of the Reds lineup. 

Part of what made me excited about Winker as a midround guy was the amount of loud contact he made, which continued in 2019 and has rocketed even higher this year with a 50 percent hard hit rate so far to go with a huge 17.5 barrel rate. His x stats are absolutely elite so far, too, as he currently is in the 99th percentile (that'll do) in xwOBA and the 97th percentile in xBA. Much like Santander, I wanted to take a look at Winker to see if he might be a nice sell high guy, but came away excited about his continuing the good work and consider him a hold also, especially hitting the middle of the lineup in a great home park.

FAAB Feelings

This should be a wild week in FAAB, so I'm going to shift a heavier focus here to try and work through some of the bigger names that were called up to make the bidding fascinating this week. Remember, there are only four bidding periods left in the regular season, and most teams have significantly more money than usual with four weeks left and if you don't spend it soon, you might end up spending it all for players you only get a couple weeks production from or take it home like I like to do in fantasy auctions. It should always be noted that rookie pitchers can be a lot of fun, but they almost often come with hiccups and/or pitch count restrictions that keep them from being huge fantasy assets, but when you hit on one, it is the best. Make sure to really take a look at what you might get from these guys over the next five weeks before just bidding on the sexy names that everyone is gushing about on Twitter. With so many guys to cover here, I will skip the closer market this week, as FAAB is much more interesting at the moment. Scott Jenstad does a deep dive into FAAB this week, and questions whether the hype on Casey Mize is too high. 

Casey Mize – Mize was drafted and held in many deeper leagues, but in NFBC 12-teamers, he's only 40 percent owned. The hype here is strong, as many people have been waiting for the 2019 first overall pick out of Auburn to get the call, and I imagine the bidding will be aggressive. Mize's debut was short as he only threw 4.1 innings against the White Sox and allowed seven hits and three earned runs, but on the positive side, he did strike out seven while walking no one.

Mize's first full year was 2019, and he responded really well with a 2.55 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 over 109.1 innings, a majority of which were in Double-A after an early promotion. While the strikeout numbers were not huge in the minors (8.7 K/9 last year), scouts love his splitter, and in watching his start, I think he ends up getting a decent amount of Ks on that pitch alone. I love his command as he was able to post a walk rate under 2.00 last year in the minors, which helps keep his WHIP low and hopefully will help him avoid some big innings. I'll bid on Mize, but with all young pitchers, I tend to temper expectations early on, and, as a result, I think the hype might be a bit too high on him for me to add him in too many spots.

Tarik Skubal – Skubal was called up by the Tigers and made his MLB debut on Tuesday night, facing the White Sox. The ninth rounder wasn't exceptionally hyped coming into the draft, but he flew up the prospect rankings in 2019 as he dominated at multiple levels. After the promotion to Double-A last year, he made nine starts and posted an eye popping 17.4 K/9 strikeout rate to go with an equally bonkers 21.5 percent swinging strike rate. The one glaring issue from a fantasy perspective from that stretch is the fact that his nine starts in Double-A only totaled 41.2 innings, as the organization clearly didn't push him deep into games. In those nine starts, he only threw six innings once and threw fewer than five innings three times.

With no minor league games to track this year, it was unclear how that issue would affect Skubal coming out of the alternate site (plus a late start after recovering from COVID-19), but it was clearly still a problem, as he lasted only two innings in start one, allowed seven hits and four earned runs. Obviously, the results were really bad, but I think good innings are on the way, as the stuff looks quite legit. I'm just not sure how often he qualifies for a win. He is going to pitch again before FAAB, and he's scheduled to face the Indians on Sunday, but in order to put in any sort of aggressive bid, I'm going to need to see him go deeper in that start and then decide on a bid number. Skubal is very available in leagues, with only eight percent ownership in the NFBC Main Events and zero percent in the 12-teamers.

Dane Dunning – Dunning was sent back to the alternate site after making one start, as the White Sox don't need a fifth starter due to upcoming off days, but he's now in the player pool (at least in NFBC leagues), so if you wanted to grab him, it likely has to be this week. His start this week was Dunning's first action since missing 2019 with Tommy John Surgery, so one would think they are unlikely to push him too hard this season. He has a strong pedigree, as he was selected in the first round in 2016 and then traded by the Nationals to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito/Adam Eaton trade (wow, that one looks good right now). Prior to getting hurt, Dunning had an exceptional 2018 season across High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.71 ERA over 86.1 innings. In addition to the sweet ERA, he also punched out over ten batters per nine while walk 2.7 per nine.

In his start against the Tigers, Dunning threw 4.1 innings and did allow three runs, but also managed to strike out seven. I went back and watched his start and was impressed, but the Tigers have made some pitchers look good with strikeouts in many starts this season. I like a bid on Dunning this week, but it's tough with roster spots so valuable and him not pitching next week since the Sox only have five games. On the plus side, that should keep the bid prices way down (especially with the other options already mentioned), and where I can afford a bench spot, I'm going to try to slide him through and deploy him the week after, and hope he can become a five-inning guy with solid ratios with a good offense behind him for some wins.

Joey Bart – Well, we talked about the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft above in Mize and now in the same week, Bart, the No. 2 pick in that draft also gets the call, which gives us all of the top four picks (Nick Madrigal and Alec Bohm) with the major league debuts already. There was a lot of buzz about Bart breaking camp with the Giants after Buster Posey opted out, but since they are a noncontending team, I imagine they didn't want to push it, plus the obvious extra year of service time played a part, too.

Bart spent 2019 mostly in High-A but was promoted to Double-A for the last month of the season, but he also missed a chunk of the season to two different hand injuries. He showed nice pop with 16 homers in only 79 games, and while he only hit .265 in 47 High-A games, he did hit .316 in his short time in Double-A. The nice part with Bart for fantasy is that he should play regularly, as the Giants have absolutely no one to block him at the catcher position (their catchers are under .200 on the season) for 2020, and probably moving forward depending on how the Giants decide to handle Posey. Two catcher leagues, even in a 12-team format, are crazy thin on rosters and in free agency, and getting Bart to replace my second catcher in almost any league is a very appealing concept. I'll bid on him this weekend for sure, and I'm probably interested in him the most, but the actual price needed might depend on how splashy he is these next four games.

Sixto Sanchez – The Marlins announced they were calling up Sanchez, but we don't yet know when he will make his debut, and in leagues like the NFBC, when he pitches will determine if he's available this weekend. Sanchez, acquired from the Phillies in the J.T. Realmuto trade, is the top prospect in the Marlins organization and throws absolute gas, touching 100 mph on occasion. His strikeout numbers haven't been especially high in the minors, but he did manage to strike out 8.5 batters per nine last year in 103 Double-A innings.

His stuff seems really good after reading multiple scouting reports, but what I like more about Sanchez in a view of his minor league numbers are his consistently solid walk rates. Last year in Double-A, his walk rate was only 1.7 BB/9 and has been under 2.00 BB/9 his last three years in the minors. While the strikeout rates should be higher with his stuff, the combination of his arm plus the walk rates at a young age make me quite interested in Sanchez (right up there with Mize) among the pitching callups. One would think that he should stick pretty easily in the Marlins rotation the rest of the way with any success, and I'm really hoping he gets to pitch Friday or Saturday so he can be in the FAAB pool this weekend.

Series of the Weekend

Rockies at Dodgers –To no one's surprise, the Dodgers have surged of late, winning eight of their last 10 to open up a four-game lead in the NL West and their plus-66 run differential is 27 runs better than the next highest team (Minnesota). The NL West is unlikely to be competitive (the Padres may disagree), but the Rockies were playing really well, but have hit the skids and need to turn it around this weekend facing the Dodgers, or they will get buried quickly with only five weeks left in the season.

A lot of the early talk about the Rockies offense has been about Charlie Blackmon hitting an absurd .500 through the first three weeks (he is now "down" to .424), but a bit hidden behind that has been the massive start to the season by Trevor Story. He was already a fantasy stud taken 12th overall in Main Event drafts, but he's easily earning that lofty draft price so far. Through 108 plate appearances, Story has seven homers and four stolen bases, while scoring nearly a run per game with 23 in 25 games.

A closer look sees a lot of positive trends in his stats, especially his strikeout rate, which currently sits at 16.7 percent, about nine percent lower than 2019 and massively down from his first couple of years in the majors. To further support that strikeout improvement, his swinging strike rate, which has never been below 11.4 percent, currently sits at 8.4 percent. If he could find a way to maintain those gains, along with his always solid hard contact skills, we could see a batting average spike that would not only helps us in that category, but also would boost his stolen base opportunities a bit, too, especially when combined with his current career high walk rate. As long as Story stays in Colorado for the Coors Field bump, he's likely going to be a top half of the first-round player next year, and I'd have a hard time arguing against it.

While it's really fun to talk about Corey Seager looking fully healthy and absolutely raking with an insane 19.7 percent barrel rate, with no closer talk this week, I figured it might be good to check in on how Kenley Jansen has looked so far this season. Jansen struggled through a number of blown saves last year and an ERA that ballooned close to 4.00 with a lot of Dodgers fans and fantasy baseball players wondering if he could fine his prior magic.

Jansen has answered the bell really well through the first month with a 0.87 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP through his first 10.1 innings, compiling seven saves already. His strikeouts are still solid at 11.3 K/9 (although his swinging strike rate has dropped a bit to 13.5 percent), but he has walked four batters so far. The really nice thing to see is that after struggling with homers in the last two seasons, he has yet to allow one this season and has only allowed one hard hit ball all season. Most importantly, the effective start to the season has extended his leash for anyone in the organization who may have been concerned about him and possibly considering any kind of quick move to Blake Treinen. In a season where closers have been a total mess, Kenley's stability has been absolutely golden.