This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
As we enter the final nine weeks of the fantasy baseball season, a lot of the race becomes focusing on what categories you need in order to make a run in your league. It can sometimes be tough to find the right trade down the stretch, so rather than the usual format of the column, I'm identifying a player for each 5x5 category you might be able to add in FAAB (or cheaply in a trade) in your league. In order to truly assist, I'm picking guys who are all under 50 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team leagues, and, in the process, hopefully also will find some guys who might be available in some 15-teamers, too.
Batting Average: Good batting average is difficult to find in this era of home runs and strikeouts, but that also means the average you need in order to do well is lower than it used to be, and a guy who really hits well for a stretch can move that mark for you. Luis Arraez doesn't have a set position with the Twins, which can be tough to stomach, but as he has continued to hit, they have found a slot for him around the diamond when they rest others. The return of Byron Buxton complicates the situation a bit more, as Max Kepler now shifts back to right field where Marwin Gonzalez had been playing. So Arraez may sit a bit more than you would like, but looking at his career,
As we enter the final nine weeks of the fantasy baseball season, a lot of the race becomes focusing on what categories you need in order to make a run in your league. It can sometimes be tough to find the right trade down the stretch, so rather than the usual format of the column, I'm identifying a player for each 5x5 category you might be able to add in FAAB (or cheaply in a trade) in your league. In order to truly assist, I'm picking guys who are all under 50 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team leagues, and, in the process, hopefully also will find some guys who might be available in some 15-teamers, too.
Batting Average: Good batting average is difficult to find in this era of home runs and strikeouts, but that also means the average you need in order to do well is lower than it used to be, and a guy who really hits well for a stretch can move that mark for you. Luis Arraez doesn't have a set position with the Twins, which can be tough to stomach, but as he has continued to hit, they have found a slot for him around the diamond when they rest others. The return of Byron Buxton complicates the situation a bit more, as Max Kepler now shifts back to right field where Marwin Gonzalez had been playing. So Arraez may sit a bit more than you would like, but looking at his career, all he has done is hit for average at every single level.
Since joining the Twins organization in 2014, Arraez has hit over .300 at every single stop, except for a 48-game stint in Double-A in 2018 where he only managed a measly .298. Since getting called up in mid-May, he has 143 plate appearances and is hitting .379 while only striking out an incredible 7.7 percent of the time. Granted, his .402 BABIP isn't going to stick, but he also has a fantastic 36.3 percent line drive, which is the second highest in baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Arraez is readily available in 12-teamers at only 11 percent owned and is only rostered in 53 percent of NFBC 15-teamers. If you need batting average, he's the guy to grab, especially since he's only one game away from adding third base eligibility and two games away from adding outfield eligibility. That three position eligibility is especially helpful down the stretch as players start to miss more games with injuries or rest, and Arraez will be available to fill in all over your lineup.
Runs: Runs are often an overlooked category in fantasy baseball and can be insanely hard to find in free agency because the biggest run scorers are the best players. In fact, when searching over the last 30 days, of the top 49 players (17 runs scored or more), all of them are more than 80 percent owned in the NFBC Main Event, and 48 of the 49 (just missing Mark Canha at 80 percent) are more than 95 percent owned. Point is, big run scorers are hard to find in free agency, and it's a tough category in which to trail.
Obviously, you want someone who is hitting near the top of the order and over the last 25 games, JaCoby Jones has been leading off just about every game for the Tigers. The issue with Jones is that his batting average has been a problem for Jones over the years due to his large strikeout rate, which sits at 28.8 percent so far this year. However, Jones is leading off and he has speed, and since he has been primarily in the leadoff spot, he is on a really nice pace with 13 scored in 22 games even though he is only hitting .212 in that stretch. There is a very real issue that he loses the leadoff spot, but not all of these are going to look pretty, and if you need runs, Jones will be a solid source as long as he leads off, and while he is already 85 percent owned in 15-teamers, he's really low in the 12-teamers at only 19 percent.
Home Runs: This is the one spot this season where you can find players in free agency, but as the homers go up across baseball, it also means you need more than ever and everyone has them. There were a number of choices here that were in the medium range of ownership, so I dipped a little lower and I'm going with Mitch Moreland as someone who can help you with some big flies the final two months. Moreland is especially nice in daily or bi-weekly moves leagues, as you can just decide to sit him in series where the Red Sox play multiple lefties as you know he won't play in those games and can really get the good side of his platoon.
After missing about a month and a half due to injury, Moreland returned this week and usually slot somewhere in the middle of an elite run-scoring lineup. Prior to his injury, Moreland was on his way to a career high in homers with 13 through only 179 plate appearances. With a solid 39.2 percent hard hit rate and 40 percent fly balls, Moreland should bring homers and RBI with him the rest of the way, and is only 22 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues. He will be a very nice option for an extra power boost at your corner spot in any series where the Sox face a bunch of righties.
RBI: The shine has been off the Albert Pujols star for a few years, and while he no longer hits for any kind of average (amazingly, under .250 in four of the last five seasons), Pujols hits fifth or sixth almost every night for the Angels and finds a way to drive in runs. Most importantly, he has been red hot with the RBI lately with an impressive 33 RBI in 32 games since June 1. Pujols' utter lack of speed hurts his batting average, as he has no chance to leg anything out, but he still makes excellent contact (12.4 percent strikeout rate this year) and a lot of it is loud with a 42.9 percent hard hit rate.
Pujols is not a sexy pickup by any means and won't impress anyone, but the Angels has been especially good lately (they rank fifth in runs scored in July), and it's pretty amazing a guy averaging an RBI per game for the last two months is only 12 percent owned in the NFBC 12-teamers. If RBI are the weak spot on your team, go grab the future Hall of Famer and ride the Angels hot offense for as long as it lasts.
Stolen Bases: Stolen bases tend to be one of the more bunched up categories, especially in this era where players don't run nearly as often. Five to seven bags from someone down the stretch can be massive, and here enters preseason hype monster Garrett Hampson. I don't trust the Rockies with playing times, especially with young players, but losing an ugly 16 of their last 20 games has dropped them to last place, and the youth movement should now take some precedence, which hopefully gives Hampson more playing time.
So far this year in his time in the majors, Hampson has had a big issue with strikeouts, with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate, but he has had much lower rates in the minors, so it hopefully will come down some as he adjusts to major league pitching and won't need to prove himself every at bat to keep his playing time. Hampson has shown large stolen base upside in the minors with 51 bags in 2017 and another 38 across three levels in 2018. That steal upside made him popular in drafts this spring, but the struggles and demotion to Triple-A has put him at 64 percent owned in NFBC 15-teamers and a mere 18 percent in the 12-teamers. He carries some playing time risk for sure but possesses the skills to get eight to 10 steals the rest of the way, which could determine a lot in that category within most leagues.
Wins: Wins are obviously tough to time, and if you are behind in that category, it likely makes sense to do your best to stream two-start pitchers each week looking for good matchups against bad offensive teams. Further, make sure to pay close attention to some of those poorer teams to see what they do at the deadline. Some teams will trade some of their better offensive pieces and immediately get worse, and some of those teams may use young guys more often in the final couple months — especially the last month — to get a head start on getting them big league at-bats.
As you look to target team to use starters against, I always like to look at the last 20 games or so to see what teams are struggling, and right now the bottom three teams in runs scored in July are the White Sox, Mariners and Marlins. Those three are also the bottom three in baseball in OPS in that stretch, so as you scan for starters to try and stream some wins, make sure to target those three teams, especially if adding a risky pitcher. While those three are probably fairly obvious and a lot of your leagues will be targeting them, a sneaky team struggling on offense at the moment is the Phillies who, during July, are 26th in team OPS, 28th in team slugging percentage and 24th in runs scored. They are only averaging 4.1 runs per game in the month. The Phillies have talent, and I would be wary of facing them in the Philly heat at home. They are a team against whom you may be able to slide in a starter for some road games, and your league mates likely aren't targeting them at the moment.
If you're looking for a specific starter to pick up for some wins down the stretch, I like to get someone on a great offense, and those usually are taken, but on the Astros, it looks like Jose Urquidy is currently slotted into fourth spot in the rotation, as the Astros sent Rogelio Armenteros to Triple-A since they don't need a fifth starter until after the trade deadline. Urquidy has the inside track right now to stick in the rotation, but the risk is there that the Astros add two starters or add one and Urquidy gets skipped a lot. However, he's very worth a pickup right now, as you can always drop him if he loses his spot, but a pitcher who is owned at only 40 percent in the NFBC 12-teamers and 76 percent in the 15-teamers pitching for an elite team is a really nice shot to take for a couple of wins.
Urquidy was not a big strikeout guy prior to this year but always exhibited excellent control. Interestingly, the strikeouts have bumped significantly to 11.8 K/9 in his 13 MLB innings so far and while that is a very small sample, he also posted a 12.9 K/9 rate in his 48.2 Triple-A innings this year. His consistent lack of walks should help his pitch count, which leads to getting deeper into games, which is obviously great for wins, especially when combined with an Astros offense that just mashes, hey, just ask my buddy Homer Bailey.
Saves. We have discussed many potential new save options that may surface due to the trade deadline over the past few weeks, but one thing to note is how crazy saves come in bunches, and if you do find that guy, even on a bad team you can make a run. After what seemed like no save opportunities at all coming his way, Ian Kennedy now leads all of baseball with 10 saves over the past 30 days and the next highest total is seven, and three of the four guys with seven saves didn't have a closer job six weeks ago: Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Martinez and Liam Hendriks (Sean Doolittle is the fourth). You just won't find any other categories where that can happen (maybe stolen bases every once in a while), and while that can make saves frustrating, it also presents an opportunity to make a move to the active owners who are paying close attention.
This is the last weekend to try and speculate on guys before the trade deadline and I plan to sit down and look at the closer depth on RotoWire (a great resource by the way that is constantly updated) and try and figure out where each seller and buyer may go at the deadline because anyone who falls into a role that hasn't been added is about to get very pricey in FAAB the week after.
My favorite guy to grab before the deadline remains Aaron Bummer both because I think Alex Colome gets traded next week and if not, I don't like what I see from Colome at the moment and think he is about to have some serious hiccups. As noted last week, I am afraid (I own Roenis Elias in a couple places) that Hunter Strickland is about to fall into the Mariners role so if he made it through free agency last week in your league and you need saves, I would definitely make a stab at him.
One name I haven't heard a lot of trade buzz on is Raisel Iglesias, but with two additional years of team control (albeit at a pricey nine million a year) and the Reds falling eight games out of first, I could see some rich contenders calling about the 29-year-old righty. Michael Lorenzen would very likely be up next and he has seen his velocity, strikeout rate and swinging strike rate all jump significantly this year and at only 30 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers, I think he makes for a really good add this weekend with the thought you can always drop him the next weekend if the Reds hold Iglesias.
Strikeouts: Strikeouts are another category, like wins, where you probably want to work hard to fine useable two-start guys to stream each week in good matchups, but some leagues are deeper and or have limited transactions, so I will point out one guy that may help you here. Asher Wojciechowski is scary because he pitches for the Orioles with home games in a good hitter's park, but in his small time in the majors this year, he has been on fire with a 12.1 K/9 strikeout rate in 23 innings, including an electric ten strikeout performance last Sunday against the Red Sox that got a lot of people's attention.
One just needs to look at his last run in the majors in 2017 with the Reds when he posted a 6.50 ERA to know there is risk here, but he has added a cutter to his arsenal that has been getting significant swinging strikes and his overall swinging strike rate so far this year is an absurd 16.8 percent. It's a scary one, but if strikeouts are what ails you, Woj is worth an add, but is someone to watch start by start to know when to cut bait, and is only five percent owned in 12-teamers and is still only 44 percent owned in the 15-team Main Event.
Ratios: After sitting through the Masahiro Tanaka disaster start Thursday night that I used in the Main Event only when Brandon Woodruff went on the IL, I am a bit scarred regarding ratios, but here we go anyway. ERA and Whip in 2019 baseball is a complicated thing as anyone with decent ratios is clearly already owned as they are so tough to fine, but I am looking at a guy with a 5.52 ERA on the year in Reynaldo Lopez in this spot. The lack of strikeouts and the ability to explode in big ways has kept me off Lopez in the past and he started off the year horribly, but has shown some signs that he might have turned things around.
Over his last six starts, Lopez has allowed three runs or fewer in five of them (granted the other one was six earned runs, again, he does have blow up potential) and the last three starts have been especially impressive with 25 strikeouts and only four runs allowed in 21 innings. He usually throws hard with an average 95.1 mph fastball this year, but I watched his start on Wednesday and he impressively hit 99 mph on the TV gun and was sitting in the upper 90's most of the game and his velocity has been noticeably up in his last three starts. His early season struggles have left him out there on waiver wires in 12-team leagues and he is only owned at 45 percent there in the NFBC and with finding pitching nearing impossible levels this year, this is your last chance to jump aboard a rising stock experiencing a big recent velocity bump, grab him now and hopefully the blow up starts come much more rarely than in the past.
