Oak's Corner: Selling High on Dahl

The Week That Was

A few weeks ago, Bryan Reynolds might have shown up in the FAAB Feelings section of this column, and I even stupidly dropped him in one spot when Corey Dickerson came back and I was concerned about his playing time. Reynolds has done nothing but hit since being called up by the Pirates in late April and has managed to entrench himself in the two-spot in the Pirates lineup even as their injured outfielders all returned. Reynolds is now hitting .362 with six homers through 194 plate appearances, but of course the question is whether it's sustainable. Well, that depends on what sustainable means, as the .362 is not sticking around with his current .446 BABIP, but it sure looks like Reynolds is a batting average plus play having hit over .300 at every single level of the minors.

While his max in the minors prior to 2019 was 10 homers, he's still only 24 and is growing into some pop as evidenced by the 11 homers so far this year combined in Triple-A and MLB. However, if he sticks in his current batting order spot, the value is in a guy who provides batting average with a bunch of runs and a little pop. While the BABIP is clearly going to come down, I love his hard contact rate of 49.3 percent, a number that puts him in the top 20 in baseball among players with at least 150 plate appearances. If you are in a shallow league, make sure he is owned, and in deeper leagues, I'm not looking to sell high on him; he's a pretty solid hold to me with only a note to monitor the playing time. Right now, he's a better hitter than Gregory Polanco or Dickerson, and the Pirates are treating him as such.

I love pointing out my predraft mistakes, and not wanting David Dahl at his March ADP is certainly looking like a pretty big one. So far in 2019, in 263 plate appearances, Dahl is crushing with a .338 batting average. However, unlike Reynolds, I think Dahl is a sell high if you can find someone looking to buy that batting average in Coors Field and willing to overlook the .432 BABIP. Unlike Reynolds, Dahl doesn't feature the same hard contact profile to fall back on, and in a year where everyone is hitting the ball hard, Dahl is only at a 34.5 percent hard hit rate.

With all the batting average goodness, and Coors is always going to be there to help him out no doubt, he does only have seven homers, and with only two steals, he isn't really helping out in either of those categories. With a 29 percent fly ball rate, the homers aren't likely to come in bunches anytime soon. Dahl still strikes out a good amount at 24.7 percent, but that isn't a prohibitive number, but he also does not walk a ton at 6.8 percent. His Statcast data doesn't jump off the page either with an 88.6 mph average exit velocity, but he does have 20 barrels. Dahl has a pretty sexy name brand and plays in Coors, so you're likely to be able to sell high on him right now and I definitely would, but just maybe don't check the box scores when the Rockies are at home.

FAAB Feelings

Zac Gallen. Acquired by the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna trade, Gallen is the latest interesting prospect to get the call, and he made his first major league start on Thursday night for the Marlins. Facing the Cardinals, Gallen had a strong debut, striking out six over five innings while only allowing one run. The former University of North Carolina pitcher and third round draft pick, was solid in 2017 and 2018 in Double-A and Triple-A, but was not ranked in the top 15 in the Marlins system entering the season by Baseball America. He fully burst on the scene in a huge way to start 2019; in a year where offense is bonkers all over Triple-A (especially the Pacific Coast League), Gallen has posted a 1.77 ERA in 91.1 innings. He has significantly bumped up his strikeout rate to 11.0 K/9 while also dropping his walk rate to 1.7 BB/9.

In terms of bidding this week in FAAB, it all comes down to whether you buy the scouting report coming into this season or you buy the increased velocity and results from this season. What I do like is the scouting reports coming into this year praised his pitch mix and command, and if he has now improved the stuff to go with that, it could be a powerful combo. After profiling hitter after hitter who has been going off in Triple-A, a pitcher with Gallen's numbers certainly gets my attention, and with the Marlins' injuries and current rotation, one would think he has a legit chance to stick in the rotation long term with a decent level of success. Via the eye test on Thursday night, he showed a really good slider and changeup and the ability to throw them in any count, and that solid outing is going to ramp up the prices. I'd expect spirited bidding on Gallen this weekend.

Kevin Newman. It's not often we can grab a leadoff hitter in free agency, but Newman has been hitting leadoff for the Pirates for the last three weeks and has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his 20 starts while atop the order. He's readily available in NFBC 12-teamers at only 23 percent owned and surprisingly still available in 15 percent of the 15-team Main Event leagues. Newman got a quick call-up in 2018 and struggled in only 97 plate appearances, but a look at his Triple-A numbers in 2018 is much more appealing as he his .302 over 109 games with an intriguing 28 stolen bases.

The 2018 steals were a surprise as he had never topped 13 in any other season in the minors, but he clearly got a green light last year as he actually attempted 39 steals overall in Triple-A. He has not quite swiped bags at the same rate this year in the majors, but he does have four in 47 games while hitting .316. The hard hit rate is definitely a concern at only 24.4 percent, but he does have a 19.3 percent line drive rate, and with only 26.7 percent fly balls, you definitely aren't going to get power from him anyway. Newman is a play to try and get some batting average and a few stolen bases, but also to rack up some underrated runs due to his spot in the lineup. He also has the edge of qualifying at a middle infield spot, and with eight appearances so far at second base and six at third base, he could gain some multiposition eligibility at some point during the year. Newman is a nice backup middle in 12-teamers who can be deployed as needed while hitting leadoff, and I think he's a starting middle infielder in 15-teamers. I'll be bidding to try and ride the hot streak despite the concerns with the lack of hard contact.

A Closer Look

There hasn't been a lot of closer turnover in good situations in the last month or so, and while there's no change yet, the Braves situation could get interesting before too long. Overall, Luke Jackson has been really good, but with his 10 saves, he already has six blown saves (five since working as the closer), and four of those in the last month. Jackson still has a 3.00 ERA with a great K:BB of 51:9 in his 36 innings, but we know managers can get a little frisky with blown saves, and this is a team that we would certainly love to have the closer if they did switch. It should be noted that Jackson was lined up to pitch the ninth on Wednesday with a three run lead (the Braves got two late to ruin the save opportunity) so he was still the guy even after the blown save last Saturday.

The obvious first thought as a backup to stash is A.J. Minter who held the job last in 2018, but Minster has struggled this year, even earning a demotion to Triple-A for about a month. After huge issues with walks (7.8 BB/9 so far) caused his voyage to Triple-A, Minter seemed to find something in Triple-A, conceding only two free passes in his 10.2 innings there. Since his recall, he has only allowed one run in four innings but has also walked four guys in that stretch, which is a definite concern.

The guy pitching the best in the bullpen right now is actually Anthony Swarzak, who started the season in the back end of the Mariners bullpen. Since joining the Braves, Swarzak has allowed only one run in 13.2 innings while striking out 16 batters. Looking at the usage of the Braves game Wednesday where they were leading late, Swarzak set up for Jackson and has clearly earned himself some high leverage opportunities with his new squad. He did flash with an exceptional season in 2017 with a 2.33 ERA in 77.1 innings, but then struggled in 2018 with both performance and injuries. In deeper leagues, Swarzak looks like the add to me if you wanted to speculate on this situation, as another couple blown saves could move the Braves to a committee approach and then who knows, as getting even a piece of the saves on a first-place team would be very significant.  

Series of the Weekend

Braves at Nationals. The Astros-Yankees series in New York is the crown jewel of this weekend, but this Braves–Nationals matchup is really a big one in the NL East. The Nationals have been a big story this year for their struggles, but they have started to warm lately, and with seven wins in their last 10, they have pulled within three games of .500. The Braves have played really well as of late also, but this head-to-head gives the Nats a legit chance to cut into the Braves eight-game lead over them, but also gives the Braves a chance to just about bury the Nats as the summer really gets going.

The Nationals send Stephen Strasburg to the mound to open the series on Friday night and he enters the matchup with a 3.75 ERA in 96 innings. The ERA is fine for this era and has helped most fantasy teams, but as often the case with Strasburg, it feels like something is left on the table, especially when you notice his 3.27 FIP. His strikeouts are still strong and the walks have dropped nicely to 2.25 BB/9, but the homers are still an issue for him with 12 allowed already this season.

First of all, with Strasburg the real key is that he has remained healthy and made all his starts so far this year, and is only 34 innings shy of his 2018 total. In terms of his actual stats, the bump in swinging strike rate is a fantastic sign, as it currently sits at 14.2 percent, which would be easily a career high for him. He has also avoided hard contact really well with a 26.1 percent hard hit rate, which would be the lowest of any season aside from his 24-inning campaign in 2011. I love what I see from Stras right now and think the ERA is headed for a drop. The obvious concern would be whether he can stay healthy, as he has only topped 150 innings once in the prior four seasons. If he can continue to tote the rock every fifth day, a really nice run is on its way, and that 3.75 ERA will be heading south.

Also on Friday, to make this series even more intriguing, we get the 2019 MLB debut of Dallas Keuchel. After an offseason of rumors and then no deal to start the year, he settled for a one-year deal with the Braves and will be quite motivated to prove his worth to try and lock down a longer term deal after this year. The former Cy Young award winner was solid in 2018 with a 3.74 ERA in 204.2 innings, but saw his strikeouts fall to 6.73 K/9, while his swinging strike rate fell to a six-year low of 8.3 percent. While clearly not known for punching guys out, Keuchel has always found a way to keep batters off balance to limit hard contact and did so again in 2018 at 28.1 percent and has never allowed a hard hit rate over 30 percent in any season.

With the struggles of some of the Braves' young pitchers, their staff really needs a solidifying force, and while you can't count on Keuchel for strikeouts, moving the NL should help, and he's also in a great spot to rack up some wins. He looked fantastic in his first minor league start, allowing only one hit over seven innings but not quite as good in the second with 11 hits allowed in seven innings. The key in both of those lines is the number of innings he was able to throw, as he clearly kept his arm in starting pitching shape during his long offseason. I would use him off the bat in fantasy leagues, and if you were able to hold him all year so far, he should be a nice shot in the arm to slot into your rotation every week.