Oak's Corner: The Fantastic Mr. Freeman

First of all, my apologies for being a day late with the column. I have been out of town and, combined with mourning the Warriors loss, I'm day behind. I'll be back on regular schedule next week.

The Week That Was

For many years, I thought Kyle Schwarber was over-drafted based on hype and team context rather than actual production, but Schwarber is on a serious heater right now, as he is tied for the lead in all of baseball with 11 homers over the last month. Overall, he has 15 homers, but the batting average, long an issue for Schwarber, is still only at .238. He strikeout rate is still pretty elevated at 27.4 percent, but one note of positivity in that regard is that he has lowered his swinging strike rate to under 10 percent for the first time in his career.

Most of Schwarber's other stats look similar to 2017, when he hit 26 homes to go with a .233 average, but the swinging strike rate and the increased fly balls (up four percent from last season) make me think another step up could be in the works. In addition, albeit in a small sample, Schwarber has hit lefties well this season, with a .293 average and three homers in 41 at-bats against southpaws. He's still going to sit against lefties in most games, but any glimpse of success against them may start to shift that fact, and while his average could slip as he faces more lefties, his counting stats overall would benefit from him not sitting so often. I have never been a Schwarber guy, but a few small items make me think he may have another step to take, and we could get the power we always anticipated without the batting average drain we feared.

Hidden among the dueling MVP campaigns of Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich has been the absolute monster season Freddie Freeman is putting up in Atlanta. After hitting only 23 homers in 2018 in 162 games, Freeman already has 18 homers through 68 games to go with his .311 batting average. Impressively, while breaking out with the power, he has actually dropped his strikeout rate to 16 percent, a fantastic number for a power hitter. His hard hit rate was a very strong 41.9 percent in 2018, but he has jacked up that number so far in 2019 to 51.9 percent, putting him in the top 10 in the league.

Freeman's 26.1 percent HR/FB rate isn't likely to continue, but even if it comes down a bit, I still think he's going to best his 2016 career power year of 34 homers. Incredibly, Freeman has 35 barrels already this season, after hitting only 46 each of the last two seasons, and his 106 balls hit at more than 95 miles per hour stands second in the majors. Yelich and Bellinger have the clear leads right now, but if I had to bet on someone else for the NL MVP award, it would be Freeman, and I absolutely consider him a first rounder right now, and while his owner isn't likely trading him, I'd be aggressive about acquiring him.

With all the struggles of the Indians offense, mostly centered around the brutal season of Jose Ramirez, the solid campaign of Carlos Santana has flown under the radar. Santana, re-acquired by the Indians after one year with the Phillies, already has 14 homers and, surprisingly, has a .286 batting average, a year after hitting .229. Santana's strikeout rate has bumped up a bit, but it's always a strong stat for him and is again this year at only 16 percent.

The one stat that sticks out as a different factor this season is the huge increase Santana has displayed with his hard contact with a hard hit rate of 46.6 percent, which is 12 percent higher than last year and more than 10 percent higher than any season of Santana's career, aside from his 2010 rookie season when he only played 55 games. His exit velocity is up four mph to 92.8 mph, and his barrel percentage is over 10 percent for the first time in the Statcast Era. One note of concern, at least when it comes to the power, is that he's hitting a lot fewer fly balls this season at only 34.9 percent, which could put a cap on his home run upside. I really like what I see with Santana so far in 2019, and while his value has risen since draft day, I still think he is someone you could trade for, as his start hasn't been discussed a ton, and his owner may be looking to get out at the increased value.

FAAB Feelings

Yordan Alvarez. Well, this is probably the most obvious FAAB pickup of the season, but the key with Alvarez is not whether to bid, everyone knows the answer to that, but how much to bid. Alvarez had a ton of hype upon his callup as it was, but now that he has homered three times already, including an opposite field jack Friday night (on a side note, I thought his swing on that pitch looked exactly like Carlos Delgado), everyone is going to bid on him. I'm guessing he receives huge bids across almost all NFBC leagues, and if you have the FAAB hammer, I would use it and just leave yourself what you can.

Alvarez is a potential huge power piece, and it needs to be noted that after all the minor leagues callups of the past several weeks, there just aren't likely to be a ton of huge impact bats to bid on. That doesn't mean an impact young bat won't thrive and emerge, but it's not likely to be someone who comes with a ton of hype and prospect pedigree and requires a huge bid to acquire. Fellow Astro Kyle Tucker could be one of those, but he is owned in many leagues, including a 100 percent ownership number in the NFBC Main event. Point is, if you saved money or weren't active, this is absolutely your chance to add someone with large upside with that FAAB money. 

Prior to getting the call to Houston, Alvarez was flat out destroying Triple-A to the tune of a .343 batting average with 23 homers and 71 (yes, 71) RBI in only 56 games. While he was crushing Triple-A, he actually managed to cut his strikeout rate to 19.8 percent, a five percent drop from his 45-game stint in Triple-A in 2018. The power was also quite evident in 2018 with 20 homers across two levels in only 88 games. Alvarez is only 21 and that age will come some hiccups and bumps as other teams get a book on him and adjust, but the power upside is huge, and it goes without saying that your bids this weekend on Alvarez should be aggressive. I'm a bit more conservative than most when it comes to saving FAAB for the final two months, but this is a special case if you can lock down Alvarez, and while I usually like to have $75 for the last six weeks of the season, if I needed power in any league, I would be okay dropping to $75 for the rest of the year to get him. This will be a fun weekend of bidding with some sky high bids guaranteed.

A Closer Look

We do have a lot of closer situations that are still pretty ugly without a set or good closer (as a side note, taking a look at the RotoWire closers page is always a good idea; it's crazy how many closers sit in the very low job security box), and many of those situations are kind of stuck in a status quo type of situation. I usually try to find a sneaky arm in those situations who may emerge, but many of these teams haven't found that guy or seem to really like their mixing and matching ways.

The one spot that opened up this week is the Blue Jays, as closer Ken Giles went on the 10 Day Injured List with right elbow inflammation. This is not likely to be an extremely interesting situation, as Giles has stated he doesn't believe he will need more than 10 days, but anytime we have a pitcher with throwing arm issues, it's always a good idea to at least kick the tires on the next guy up in case the issue does linger. The most likely fill-in for Giles appears to be Joe Biagini, but there isn't a ton to get fired up about with his 3.72 ERA in 29 innings. On the positive side, Biagini has increased his strikeout rate from 6.6 K/9 to 8.7 K/9, but home runs remain a big issue for the righty reliever; he's already allowing six so far this year. The increased strikeouts have come with a sizable jump in his swinging strike rate to 12.6 percent, so while the strikeout jump looks real, with a 40.5 percent hard hit rate, the runs given up appear to be too. Biagini could get the job done for a short time if Giles' injury were to linger, and if you are desperate for saves, you need to bid, but I will definitely be keeping it very small on him this weekend.

Series of the Weekend

Phillies at Braves. With the Nationals and Mets struggling, the possible four-team race in the National League East is quickly becoming a two team battle between the Phillies and the Braves. After a thrilling Atlanta 9-8 win on Friday night, the Braves currently hold a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies, and the Braves have been red hot lately, as they are riding an eight-game winning streak heading into this weekend.

I have seen some questions on various social media platforms with people asking if they should drop Josh Donaldson. I get that he's only hitting .235 and has only driven in 28 runs while hitting in the middle of a potent lineup, but while Donaldson is not the MVP-level talent he used to be, he's still going to produce. The biggest issue for JD clearly is the strikeouts, which have risen significantly over the past few years, peaking this year with his 28.3 percent strikeout rate, a far cry from the 18.7 percent rate he posted in his 2015 MVP campaign. But while the strikeouts are a concern, I just cannot fathom dropping a guy making this level of loud contact as he currently sports a hard hit rate over 50 percent. He missed a large portion of the 2018 season, and I'm hoping there was rust early on in the season that he's now knocking off, as he already has three homers in June despite the brutal average recently. He's still smoking the ball, and more than anything, I can't give up on that quite yet.

On Saturday, the Phillies ace, Aaron Nola takes the mound looking to right the ship on a season that has been very disappointing, especially for fantasy owners who have to use a second- or third-round pick on Nola in drafts. Through 14 starts and 76.2 innings, Nola has posted a 4.58 ERA to go with an extremely ugly 1.49 WHIP. While the strikeouts are up a bit, the most glaring difference in Nola's game is the huge increase in his walk rate to 3.99 BB/9. He has really struggled to get strike one, with his first pitch strike percentage dropping more than 10 percent from 2018 to 58.8 percent.

In addition to the wildness, Nola is also getting hit harder with a hard hit rate of 36.4 percent, the first time in Nola's career that number has been above 30 percent. While the strikeouts have remained an asset, it is quite concerning that his 12.4 percent swinging strike rate from 2018 has dipped under 10 percent. I still like Nola, but I'm very concerned that the issues have lingered this deep into the season. This start Saturday in a huge game for the Phillies in Atlanta needs to be a start in the right direction, as the Phillies need Nola to be great if they are going to win the NL East.