Oak's Corner: Time to Buy Low on JD?

The Week That Was

This is obviously an unprecedented baseball season, and we're about to see another aspect of that as we're almost at the trade deadline after only a little more than a month of games. We usually have four months to separate the contenders from the pretenders, but that luxury is gone for most teams, except for those on the far extremes. For all those teams in the middle, the decision whether to buy or sell may turn on the result of one series this weekend, and with the deadline on Monday, any speculation we want to attempt to make has to come on the day prior when we do our FAAB moves. As you are making your adds and drops this weekend, make sure you're thinking about the deadline, and cover yourself so you can adapt and also get in those speculative picks depending on how you think the deadline turns out. Guessing not only which teams might trade, but then who they may trade is extremely difficult, but if you can find your way into a windfall at closer or maybe a new starting offensive player, it will huge down the stretch.

The American League is especially interesting looking at the standings as there will be eight teams that make the playoffs and using ESPN's playoff prediction percentages, incredibly, there are seven teams are already above 97 percent and the AL has separated itself big time. The most fascinating team at the deadline is the Red Sox who have had a horrible start to the season in every way, but still have some significant stars on offense. Despite the rumors, I think their approach is more reload than rebuild, and they keep Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, but the J.D. Martinez situation is intriguing, as he could opt out of his contract at the end of the season and make himself a free agent, but it's hard to see him walking away from that money with the year he's having. But, should an MLB team (or more importantly for our world here), trade for Martinez right now? 

Martinez was a mid-second rounder in 15-team drafts just about a month ago, but he has gotten stuck in the Red Sox malaise and is shockingly hitting only .213 with three homers with 13 runs and 15 RBI. A quick look at his walk and strikeout see similar numbers to the last couple years and not a regression to his higher strikeout numbers from early in his career. A look at his Statcast numbers is really odd, as his page is filled with red (those are good!) highlights in every season until you get to 2020, which has none and features a 36.6 percent hard hit rate after five straights where he has been 47 percent or better. He also sports a barrel rate under 10 percent for the first time the Statcast numbers have been released.

It's really jarring to see a guy who has hit the ball hard consistently for so long just stop doing so, but we have to remember, it has only been a month, which came off a really quick ramp up. Further, Martinez has noted the changes in the amount of video work they can get at the ballpark, and how he's someone who benefits greatly from that. My opinion is these first six weeks are more of a "this is a 2020" blip for Martinez rather than some sort of cliff he fell off at 33, and I'd do what I could to obtain him at a discount, as he actually could have a fantasy manager who's tired of him, plus a trade to a contender could be just the spark JDM needs.

FAAB Feelings

Before we discuss a couple of targets this week in FAAB, I wanted to share my thoughts on where we are with FAAB at the moment in this crazy season. With everyone having their full budget in a 60-game season, we knew there would not only be active bidding early on, but also some super high bids, as managers knew they had the same amount of money to spend in about a third as many FAAB periods. As I reviewed the bids on all the prospects and a few other players last week, I was a bit surprised that while the activity was still heightened, the winning bids were a bit lower than anticipated. I looked at the overall budget left of the teams in my Main Event, and it was interesting to see a large majority of teams has $200 or less left. So while this is still a lot of money left in the pool of the final month, I think the number of bids will stay high, as so many managers are still in the mix and paying attention, but the winning bids will get closer to maybe what we expect to see in the summer months of a regular season. So the "triple all your bids" strategy probably gets eliminated down the stretch, but there will also be a lot more teams playing and bidding in the final months than usual. Standings are not only tight overall, but if you look at the categories, they are incredibly bunched up so that major gains (and losses) still happen every day, and certainly significantly more than usual as we approach September. Stay active, stay involved, but I think you'll see your winning bids won't need to be nearly as high as they have been in the first six weeks.

Ian Anderson – We don't have quite the prospect madness we had last week, but Anderson is likely to be very popular coming off his fantastic debut this week, as he allowed only one run (and only one hit!) while striking out six over six innings against the Yankees. Anderson spent most of 2019 in Double-A and excelled there, posting a 2.68 ERA with a 11.9 K/9 strikeout rate in 111 innings across 21 starts. He struggled in his promotion to Triple-A with a 6.56 ERA and an elevated 6.6 BB/9 walks rate, but it was only in five starts.

Anderson certainly has a high pedigree, as he was the third overall pick by the Braves in the 2016 draft, but most scouting reports don't see him as an ace level arm for the Braves, but more of a midrotation guy. Looking at his minor league walk numbers gives me the most pause on Anderson and he has exceeded a 3.5 BB/9 walk rate in each of the last three years in the minors. With him coming off that good of a start against an elite team, I have to assume Anderson is the priciest pickup this week, and I'll be bidding as I think he'll be solid, But I don't think my bids will be quite enough to grab him (I put him in the like, not love, bucket) and I don't think I'm going to empty the FAAB coffers on him this weekend.

Brandon Belt – Okay, so I know this seems like a crazy one. We must know who Belt is at this point of his career as he has never hit 20 homers in a season and has often missed time for injuries. It feels like we have been waiting for that big Belt season his whole career, but what if it's finally here? Belt had two more hits on Thursday and enters the weekend hitting .315 with five homers in only 82 plate appearances (he missed some time at the start of the season, I know, shocker). Belt is still walking at a solid clip as always, but his strikeouts has climbed up to 26.8 percent as his swinging strike rate has jumped to 12.5 percent.

However, a look at his Statcast page sees some exciting stuff through the first month. Belt has been smoking the ball so far, sporting a 56.5 percent hard hit rate, which places him in the top 10 in all of baseball. In addition, he already has 10 barrels, good for a 21.7 percent barrel rate, which puts in the 91st percentile in that stat. Perhaps most importantly, Oracle Park, which has suppressed Belt's left handed pop for years is clearly playing differently this year, and while he can't hit 20 homers in this shortened season, I am cool if he just puts up a career high pace.

This isn't a sexy play in any way, but first base is a weak spot this year, especially in deeper leagues, and Belt is very available in leagues, as he's only owned in 23 percent of NFBC 15-team leagues and a mere one percent in the 12-teamers. In this short season, I'm all about riding the hot streaks and finding someone this hot at low ownership is not easy.  I'll be bidding Belt in multiple leagues this weekend, especially with a trip to Coors next week, even though it's a quick two-game set.

A Closer Look

You know it's a wacky year for closers when the RotoWire closer chart has 20 of 30 closers listed in the "very low job security" section. One could argue a few of those here and there, but point is, it has been absolute chaos for closers, and there are very few one can trust. Coming into the season, there was some concern Liam Hendriks had not done it for a whole season and the A's have a history of closers peaking quickly and rapidly. Well, anyone who drafted Hendriks is happy that anyone doubted him as he leads the league in saves and has allowed only two earned runs through his first 16.1 innings. The massive strikeout bump in 2019 mostly has been maintained, as he's striking out 12.7 batters per nine so far, and he has actually dropped the walk rate to 1.7 BB/9. While I tend to think some closers have struggled without fans in the seats for that extra adrenaline rush coming in for the ninth, it's funny to watch Hendriks also lead the league in curses caught on TV anytime he throws a bad pitch. I think his internal fire helps him get amped up maybe quicker than other guys. I definitely wouldn't sell high on Hendriks in any league and enjoy the ride (and the F bombs).

Daniel Bard was added in many deeper leagues last week (he is owned at 80 percent in NFBC Main Event leagues) but is still very available at only 25 percent ownership in NFBC 12-team competitions. With Jairo Diaz losing his grip on the closer role, Bard now has three saves on the year, including two already this week in Arizona, although one of them did get a bit sketchy before he locked it down. Of course, he's still the closer in Coors Field, but those two saves likely give him a solid lead in that pen, especially since no one else is really there to grab the role from him.

The story on Bard has clearly been one of the better ones in baseball this year, as he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2013 and actually worked for the Diamondbacks as a mental skills coach last season, but not only is he back but has been pitching pretty darn well so far. The ERA is a touch high at 4.50, but his FIP is 2.73 and he has struck out 17 batters against only three walks in his 14 innings. He's back up to 97 mph and is throwing his slider more than before, which has produced a 35.7 percent whiff rate. The story is great, and if you need a closer this week in FAAB, I think he has an ever so small bit of leash in that pen, as long as you can stomach watching your guy throw the ninth-inning in Coors.

Series of the Weekend

Rays at Marlins –I never thought I'd be highlighting this series, but let's have some fun with the team with the second best record in the American League (why hello there, best record) visiting the surprising Marlins who are still over .500 and finding themselves very much in the playoff hunt entering September (sentences we never thought we'd say in 2020, right?). I know the A's visiting Houston is a better series, especially considering the bad blood last time out between them, but I highlighted that series a few weeks ago, so figured it would be fun to look at some different teams. The Rays are so darn good and smart and even though their lineup never really passes the eye test day to day, you look up and there they are, leading the AL East with a 21-11 record. This weekend in Miami should be fun with good pitchers taking the hill (Sixto, Snell, maybe Glasnow!) and to see if the Marlins can hang with their in-state juggernaut.

Like most people, I like to point out when I'm right about a player, but if I'm going to do so, I feel it is important to note when I am wrong, and man, have I been wrong on the Rays best hitter in 2020, Brandon Lowe. Lowe has had a gigantic start to the season, crushing 10 homers already to go with a .296 batting average and a 1.073 OPS. My two concerns coming into this year were his elevated strikeout rate and the fact that the Rays platoon so much that he would end up sitting a third of the games due to his wRC+ of 77 vs lefties in 2019. Well, he has blown both those concerns out of the water and at the same time, given me a big loss, as I have him on zero squads.

Lowe's strikeout rate was 34.6 percent in 2019, which was the third worst in baseball for anyone with 300 plate appearances, so it's not like I was concerned about a minor issue, but he has, impressively, dropped that all the way down to 23 percent this season. With the amount of hard contract he makes, he suddenly becomes really interesting without the extreme level of punchouts. Looking back at his minor league history, maybe I have should have seen a history of strikeout rates that were more in line with his current season, as I usually forgive a guy for elevated punch-outs in his first real season in the bigs. His swinging strike rate is still a bit high at 14.7 percent, but is also much improved from 2019. As for the platoon issue, all Lowe has done is fully destroy lefties this year with a 233 wRC+ with four homers over 33 at-bats. So I had reasons for not grabbing Lowe this year, but he has smashed those reasons in the face. If you own Lowe, props on a great pick and I would ride the wave right now and not look to sell high on him.

The Marlins offense hasn't carried the load in getting the team over .500,. but the pitching has been a nice bright spot, as it ranks in the top half of MLB in ERA, led by the scheduled starter for Saturday, Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been fantastic so far with a 1.98 ERA over 27.1 innings in his first five starts. In a season where we have seen a ton of pitching blowups, even from the good ones, Lopez has yet to allow more than three runs in any start. He has upped his strikeout rate to 8.9 K/9, while still keeping his walk rate in a good place at 2.3 BB/9.

Lopez has altered his pitch mix from 2019 by throwing his changeup (which has a 38.6 percent whiff rate) a lot more at 29.3 percent and also introducing a cutter, which he's throwing about 11.4 percent of the time. The increased variety has made his four-seam fastball a lot more effective both in whiff rate and the results he gets when it is put in play. His overall swinging strike rate was fine last year at 10.2 percent, but it has bumped way up to 14.4 percent this season, which puts him in the top 10 in qualified starters. He has been a great story through the first half of the season, and it should be fun to see him take on the Rays this weekend.