Oak's Corner: Total Closer Chaos

The Week That Was

In so many ways, it has been truly amazing to have baseball on every night after such a long time away, but we clearly aren't anywhere near out of the woods toward a smooth season, as the Marlins Covid outbreak has affected multiple teams, and both the Phillies and Marlins will play a grand total of zero games this week. In addition, due to the those teams not being able to take the field, it affects two other teams: the Nationals and Blue Jays will have the weekend off, too.

Hopefully, the Marlins and Phillies can get things back up and running by next week, but as fantasy players we must learn to adapt with a season that likely will be up and down.

I'm stuck with some zeroes in my lineups this weekend, and moving forward I really want to tilt my bench spots to an extra bat or two than I usually carry. In the NFBC, where you can switch out players on Fridays, I want to be able to adjust to situations like we have this weekend, which includes trying to have at least one backup at every position, except catcher where the replacement value for a weekend of games isn't worth the roster spot. There are always going to be some spots where you just get stuck, but as someone who had to play Jean Segura all week and has to use Starlin Castro this weekend, I need to create some more flexibility.

On the flip side, this means I need to be a bit more brutal with my pitcher cuts and leave FAAB each Sunday night knowing which nine pitchers I want to use and, thusly, sacrificing a depth arm for a depth bat each week. It's frustrating to lose Bryce Harper all week, but I think what learning from this week can help us down the line, as these aren't likely to be the only teams that have issues as we progress this summer.

Teoscar Hernandez has had quite the first week of the season, tossing up a couple of two-homer games already, giving him four homers to go along with two stolen bases, and he was even hitting leadoff when Bo Bichette was out of the lineup. Hernandez' biggest issue has always been, and likely always will be, his elevated strikeout rate. He has had a strikeout rate over 30 percent the last three seasons, which in itself will always make him a batting average risk. That average kept his draft price down, and if you can make up the average elsewhere, he has a lot of intriguing skills for where his ADP ended up this year.

With a 42.3 percent hard hit rate in 2019, he now has back to back years over 40 percent, and his average exit velocity of 91.2 mph put him in the 89th percentile last season. Now, everyone hit homers last year, but his 26 in 125 games are still valuable, plus he also managed to toss in six stolen bases. The hot start is especially nice, as it locks in his playing time. As long as he stays in the lineup, he's going to give you some power and speed, and I like his chances of driving in a bunch of runs, too, if he continues to hit sixth with a lot of good players hitting ahead of him. If the Hernandez manager in your league is looking to sell off the hot start, I'd definitely listen as long as you can deal with the BA, as I think the other categories will all be there this year.

FAAB Feelings

With the time about to pass for teams to gain an extra year of control on their young players, we likely will see a bunch of exciting prospects start to get called up this weekend and soon after. It was already assumed that the top guys would only be down for a week, so they were drafted in most drafts, but it goes without saying that if somehow Nate Pearson (already up and looked great in his first start), Spencer Howard or Dylan Carlson are available in your league, jump on those guys for sure this week in FAAB.

Daulton Varsho – According to many reports, Varsho will be called up by the Diamondbacks this weekend, and an initial scan of his stats jumps off the page for a player with catcher eligibility. In 2019, in Double-A, Varsho hit 18 homers and stole 21 bases (yes, he's a catcher) over 108 games and led the Southern League in OPS. The steals weren't an outlier either, as he swiped 19 bags in only 80 games in High-A ball in 2018.

Those are obviously amazingly enticing numbers for a catcher in any sized league, but the major issue will be what Arizona's plans are for playing time with Varsho. They have a catcher they like in Carson Kelly who had an 18-homer season last year. Varsho did play center field in Double-A last season and has been playing some outfield at the alternate camp, likely because they saw what Kelly did in 2019, but unless Arizona is sitting Kole Calhoun or David Peralta (unlikely), there isn't a clear path to playing in the outfield either. They do have a designated hitter now, of course, and maybe playing time could come at the expense of Jake Lamb who had a brutal 2019 and has started slowly this season.

Varsho clearly is a must add at the catcher position in a two-catcher league right away if he can find a way to play at least four times a week moving around the diamond. Assuming the call-up happens as expected, I will be watching Varsho's playing time closely this weekend before deciding how much my bid on Varsho will be, but with the weak crop of catcher two's most of us are using, I will definitely be bidding.

Cristian Javier – Javier made his first MLB start this week against the Dodgers, of all teams, and all he managed to do was toss 5.2 innings, allowing only two hits and one run while punching out eight. The Astros have a number of hyped pitching prospects who were generating a lot of buzz in fantasy drafts, but Javier looked significantly better than Josh James this week, and Jose Urquidy and Forrest Whitley aren't pitching in the majors yet this season. With the Justin Verlander injury, there's room for Javier to stick in the rotation, and one would think his first start bought him a few more starts.

Looking at his minor league numbers, with a career 12.2 K/9 strikeout rate in the minors, the strikeouts have always been there, but he has had issues with control with a walk rate of 3.9 BB/9. I watched a good amount of his start (man, sure is nice I can watch the Dodgers in Los Angeles this year; truly absurd that lasted so long) and came away impressed, although it's very clear that he's probably a five-inning guy for now, as his fastball velocity definitely dissipated as the game went along. I liked his slider though, and its effectiveness seemed to make his fastball, while not overpowering, sneak up on hitter.

The Astros are a good team, both in getting a lot out of their starters and their offense scoring runs, so he could actually sneak in some wins even if he can't go deeper than five innings for the time being. Starting pitchers aren't easy to find right now, as so many starters aren't going deep, so I'm definitely in on the Javier bidding and would use him for the scheduled two-start week at Arizona and home against the A's, then definitely the week after versus Seattle.

A Closer Look

Only a week into the season, we already have a plethora of closer situations up in the air, and rather than try to go in depth on each one, I'm going to hit a bunch of them quickly with thoughts on how to handle them moving forward in FAAB or trades. These below don't even include the Royals, where after positive quotes about Greg Holland, it appears they're going with Trevor Rosenthal, and the Indians where James Karinchak got a save tonight after Brad Hand looked horrendous on Wednesday. Both Rosenthal and Karinchak are easy bids this week if they're available in your league. I also didn't include the Mets, who might be looking at a change after a brutal outing in a nonsave situation by Edwin Diaz on Thursday night.

Blue Jays – There were a number of names on the list after Ken Giles left Sunday's game injured and has been placed on the Injured List with a strained right forearm. I would be surprised if we saw Giles in any real capacity this season, and based on both manager quotes and usage, it looks like this is Anthony Bass' job for the time being, as he has been strong for the Jays so far, allowing only one baserunner in 4.1 innings. In 2019, Bass had a 3.56 ERA in 48 innings, but only a 8.1 K/9 strikeout rate. While he may keep the job in a short season and is the clear bid if he wasn't added last week in your league, he feels like a decent reliever more than a dominant closer.

I like the idea of Rafael Dolis coming off five years of closing very effectively in Japan, but they clearly went to Bass first, so if I wanted to speculate on some upside as the season goes on, it would probably be with Jordan Romano. He has had high strikeout rates since converting to relief work but needs to limit the walks to have any chance of holding down a closer job. But, he throws hard and is five years younger than Bass, and could very well get a shot later in the season if the Jays want to see if he might be an option heading to 2021.

Mariners – This situation is a mess, as Taylor Williams converted a save over the weekend and, as a result, he was bid on in most leagues as people are desperate for saves. After looking at his profile and seeing high ratios and too many walks, I moved him down my conditional bids. The most interesting arm in this bullpen is likely the guy who locked down a save earlier this week, Dan Altavilla, but he has some big walk issues to go with his big strikeout numbers, and he gave up three runs on Thursday night. I think Yoshihisa Hirano is the one guy in this pen who actually might get to be the guy once he's back to fully health. If it isn't him, I'm likely a full pass on this pen for now.

Cubs – This is a really interesting spot, as it's a good team that could be really valuable for saves, but the question is whether the Cubs will move away from the veteran with the big contract in Craig Kimbrel. After signing with the Cubs late last year, Kimbrel was a disaster, posting a 6.53 ERA in 20.2 innings, and while the strikeouts were still really good, he had a 5.2 BB/9 walk rate. If that were isolated in a small sample, I could live with it, but that now makes three of four years during which walks have been a significant issue for Kimbrel. He came into his first game on Monday night and proceeded to walk four batters while registering only one out. He probably still gets a couple more shots, but if he can't find it quickly, the leash will have to be short in a season where late losses are more magnified.

If I wanted to speculate in the Cubs pen, I know Rowan Wick is the arm that people like most and he's more exciting, but I think I would lean to the Cubs moving to veteran Jeremy Jeffress if they make a move in-season. Jeffress had a 5.02 ERA last season in Milwaukee, but he likely had a bit of bad luck with a 63.8 percent LOB rate and a bit of an elevated BABIP at .322. I tend to think the Cubs, a contending team, will go first to the guy with closing experience, but I'd hope they don't wait too long for Kimbrel to find himself.

Rays – Oliver Drake logged a couple of saves back-to-back and then came to the next game in the sixth inning, which sums up the bullpen situation in Tampa. Put simply, I wouldn't chase anyone in this pen if you need to get bulk saves from them, but I do like a bunch of arms in this pen for ratios and a few saves, with Nick Anderson obviously on the top of that list. But, if it wasn't clear before, it's quite obvious now that there won't be a traditional closer in the Rays pen this season.

Rangers – I added this one late as we got word on Thursday that Jose Leclerc was placed on the 45-Day Injured List, which essentially knocks him out for the entire 2020 season. When Leclerc was unavailable the other day, Nick Goody converted the save, and while he was decent last year with a 3.54 ERA in 40.2 innings, he also walked 4.9 batters per nine.

The sexy name here is Jonathan Hernandez who previously was a starter but converted to relief in 2019. While he had big walk issues last year, the interest in Hernandez comes from all the glowing comments that came down upon him in spring training as he struck out 16 batters in 10 innings, allowing only three earned runs and four walks. He also impressed at summer camp, and manager Chris Woodward indicated he would be making the team but said he would trust the 24-year-old righty in high-leverage situations despite his lack of experience. There likely will be some hiccups with a rookie, but this is a pickup with a lot of potential upside, where he has room to run with the job for a squad that's not getting their incumbent back anytime this year.

Series of the Weekend

Padres at Rockies – The Indians-Twins series in the American League will be a lot of fun (by the way, unreal performance by Shane Bieber tonight against that nasty Twins offense), but this series, especially in Coors, should be a blast. The Rockies have started the season really well, going 4-1, including an impressive two-game road sweep of my A's earlier this week. The Padres look like one of the most fun and young squads in the league led by Fernando Tatis and are only going to get better when a couple of their stud young pitchers get called up. The Dodgers are clearly the heavy favorite in the division, but this series will be interesting viewing to see if either squad looks like they're up to making a run at the king.

For the visiting Padres, we finally might be seeing the much anticipated Wil Myers resurgence. After dropping a 30-homer/20-steal season on us in 2017, Myers dealt with injuries in 2018 and then looked horrible in 2019, hitting .239 with a career-high 34.3 percent strikeout rate. The strikeout rate jump was really odd, as he had never been higher than 27.5 percent in any season, but there was word in the spring that he was working on swing mechanics to fix this issue. The strikeouts aren't good so far this year, and it's obviously too early to know, but he already has two homers and a steal, and perhaps, most importantly to his fantasy value, a couple of roster moves plus the universal DH has locked in Myers to the starting lineup every day. He still possesses a very desirable power/speed combo (heck, he was still 18 HR/16 SB in the rough 2019 season), and while his fantasy manager is probably holding after the encouraging start, I'd love to acquire him in a trade, as this offense is strong overall, and the Padres play seven of their 30 road games this season in Coors.

Heading into drafts this year, Daniel Murphy, who was coming off the disappointing 2019 campaign, was a tough guy for me to figure out. After signing with the Rockies before the 2019 season, Murphy moved up ADP, as there was talk about winning a batting title and also boosting his power numbers with 81 games in Coors. He ended up hitting .279, which doesn't hurt anyone by itself but was still disappointing, and when you combine that with only 13 homers in a year where everyone hit a bunch of them, it was a really tough year considering his draft price.

It's possible Murphy was never fully healthy, but in the offseason, I took a closer look at his Statcast numbers to see what happened, and it's really ugly. After back to back years in 2016 and 2017 with a hard hit rate over 40 percent, Murphy now has two straight years under 30 percent, and his 28.3 percent number last year put him in the ninth percentile. His barrel rate was also incredibly low at 2.4 percent. His xBA, xwOBA and exit velocity were all under the tenth percentile, and his Statcast rankings box is a full scale sea of blue. Health was clearly an issue, but those numbers were enough to make me not target Murphy, even with the depressed ADP, and, at 35, it's possible it may not be coming back.