Offseason Deep Dives: Garrett Crochet

Not much went right with the 2024 White Sox as they set a new record for futility with 121 losses. There was one clear bright spot, however, and that was Garrett Crochet's successful move into the starting rotation.

That the White Sox even entertained the idea of putting Crochet into their rotation was a roll of the dice. He made just 13 starts in college at Tennessee and only one in his final year there in 2020. Prior to 2024, Crochet had made 84 appearances as a pro (72 in the majors, 12 in the minors) and all of them came in relief. He missed all of 2022 following Tommy John surgery and threw only 25 innings in 2023 while battling shoulder problems. The biggest workload Crochet ever had before this past season was 65 innings, which came in 2019 during his sophomore year in college.

Crochet cemented a spot in the White Sox' rotation with a strong spring training which saw him allow three runs with a 14:1 K:BB over 12.2 innings during Cactus League play. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter and immediately raised eyebrows with eight strikeouts over six frames of one-run ball versus the Tigers while averaging 97.7 mph with his four-seamer. After Crochet followed that up with eight more punchouts and just one run allowed over seven innings against the Braves in his next outing, fantasy managers sprinted to the waiver wire to scoop him up wherever he was available.

Crochet was one of baseball's best starters through the end of June. He compiled a 3.02 ERA (with a 2.38 FIP), 0.93 WHIP and 141:20 K:BB across 101.1 innings covering 18 starts through the end of that month. The left-hander reached double digits in strikeouts in a third (six) of those starts, including five of his last 10 outings through the end of June.

It was at that point of the season when things changed for Crochet, both in terms of his usage and, to a lesser degree, his performance. Former manager Pedro Grifol warned everyone in late June that the team was "going to start dwindling" the southpaw's workload the rest of the way, although he offered next to nothing in the way of specifics. As it turned out, "dwindling" meant Crochet wouldn't be allowed to pitch beyond the fourth inning in any of his final 14 starts, and he didn't throw more than 67 pitches in any of his final nine outings.

The workload basically left Crochet unusable in most fantasy formats the rest of the way. He also mixed in some clunkers down the stretch, although there were periods of dominance, too, particularly during his final eight starts when he held a 3.20 ERA (1.23 FIP), 1.07 WHIP and 42:3 K:BB across 25.1 frames.

Crochet's stuff transitioned seamlessly to the rotation. He averaged 97.2 mph with his four-seamer, which was down from the absurd 100.2 mph he averaged during his six-inning sample in 2020 but up more than a full mph from his relief work in 2023. The pitch garnered a 31.4 percent whiff rate, which is pretty good for any pitch but absurd for a four-seamer. Among starters, only Ryan Pepiot (at 31.6 percent) had a better whiff rate with his four-seamer.

The 31.4 percent whiff rate on the four-seamer was the lowest of Crochet's five pitches, with the sweeper representing the high-water mark at 42.7 percent (he barely threw his changeup and sinker, his fourth and fifth pitches, although they were both very effective in limited usage). Crochet also introduced a cutter for the first time and it became easily his second-most used pitch behind the four-seamer at 28.4 percent. Because Crochet seldomly uses a changeup, he really needed the cutter against right-handed bats, and it produced a .280 xwOBA and 34.2 percent whiff rate versus righties.

One of the best stats to look at for pitchers is Fangraphs' SwStr%. Yes, getting batters to chase out of the strike zone is integral to success, but getting them to swing and miss at balls in the strike zone is much more difficult and is a good indicator as to how nasty that pitcher's stuff is. Below are the top five in SwStr% among pitchers to accrue at least 140 innings in 2024:

Yep, it's Crochet on top and it's not particularly close. For a point of reference, Crochet's 16.2 percent rate also would have been tops in baseball in 2023 among pitchers not named Spencer Strider. (Strider had an utterly ridiculous 18.9 percent rate that year.)

As electric as Crochet's stuff was, perhaps the most surprising part of his breakout season was his impeccable control. Crochet's 5.5 percent walk rate ranked in the 87th percentile and, when combined with a 35.1 percent strikeout rate, gave him a dominant 29.6 percent K-BB rate. As you can see below, it also easily led baseball among pitchers with 140+ frames:

This came from the same guy who had a 12.7 percent walk rate in his first 73 major-league innings as a reliever. That he was able to maintain the electric stuff while cutting his walk rate more than in half was a pleasant surprise.

As promising as Crochet's first full season as a starter was, there are some unknowns with the big left-hander heading into 2025.

One, of course, is the workload. Crochet held up very well both physically and from a performance standpoint in 2024, but it's possible the 121-inning jump from 2023 takes a toll on him in 2025. 

Getting to 146 frames this past season should, theoretically, have him positioned to take on a normal starter's workload next season. He's never done that before, though. As mentioned above, the last time Crochet threw more than four innings in a start was in June. We simply don't know how he'll fare with the kid gloves off in 2025. While that doesn't necessarily make Crochet much more of an injury/performance risk than any other pitcher, it is a factor.

The other major unknown is we don't know where Crochet is going to pitch in 2025. The assumption is that he will be on the move somewhere, and it would be very difficult (impossible?) for him to not experience some level of uptick in fantasy stock simply by leaving the White Sox. But how hitter- or pitcher-friendly will his new home park be? What about the defense behind him? The offensive support? And what if he winds up staying put?

Crochet's current NFBC ADP is 41.69, just behind Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom and just ahead of Dylan Cease and Cole Ragans among starting pitchers. That's a pretty lofty spot already, and when/if he's traded, the price could rise.