Regan's Rumblings: Who’s Caught My Eye?

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Published on August 11, 2020

Any White Sox fans out there watching the Padres lately? Fernando Tatis is proving to be an absolute monster, batting .333/.417/.810 with eight home runs through his first 16 games. This isn't a huge shock after his .317/.379/.590 rookie season. Is he the No. 1 overall pick candidate in 2021? Despite the home park that supposedly suppresses offense, I have to think he is. If the steals pick up, he could make a run at a 20/20 season…in 60 games.

Who else has caught my eye so far? Here are a few:

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF

Is it time to just recognize the talent, get past the last name and be open to the idea that maybe this isn't a fluke and that he's just a good baseball player? I think it is. Yastrzemski made his debut last year as a 28-year-old rookie and surprised a bit by hitting .272/.334/.518 with 21 home runs in 411 PA. It's amazing that with the Orioles' roster as it is, that someone like the grandson of a legend couldn't break through. To be fair, Yastrzemski did have just a .739 OPS during three separate stints at Triple-A with the Orioles. His 26.0 K percentage and so-so 7.8 BB percentage last year left some room for regression, but instead, he's come out hitting .322/.452/.661 with four home runs, including one off Clayton Kershaw over the weekend. He's now an everyday player no doubt, as he has a 1.271 OPS against southpaws last year

Who else has caught my eye so far? Here are a few:

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF

Kyle Lewis, OF, SEA

Lewis has been a revelation, batting .355/.420/.5165 with three homers entering Monday's action. He's been moved to the third slot in the order, making him a strong 100 RBI candidate if we were actually playing a full season. Lewis' MLB debut last year was interesting, as the 24-year-old hit six homers in his first 10 games before slumping and ultimately hitting .268/.293/.592 in 75 PA with an ugly 29:3 K:BB. That sort of strikeout rate gives me serious pause, and while the strikeouts are down a little this year, his K percentage still sits at 30.4, though his BB percentage has jumped from 4 to 10 percent in a small sample size. Pre-2020, Lewis was said to have plus-plus raw power, though that had yet to manifest itself consistently. Perhaps the time is now.

JaCoby Jones, OF, DET

Jones did it again Monday, hitting HR No. 5 FOR THE Tigers to raise his slash line to .333/.391/.786. Why he was hitting ninth is beyond me, considering the team's 1-2-3 hitters all had a sub-.311 OBP, with cleanup hitter C.J. Cron batting .190. They may want to move this guy up. Jones entered the game having a .216/.281/.385 career slash in north of 1,000 career PA over parts of five seasons. He did show decent improvement last year in batting .235/.310/.430, while posting career bests in his strikeout and walk rates, though his K percentage remains north of 30 percent for his career. Jones' superior glove should allow him to hang around for a while, so even once the inevitable slump hits, he should still get plenty of playing time. The competition for outfield at-bats doesn't exactly include Ty Cobb, Sam Crawford and Kirk Gibson.

J.P. Crawford, SS, SEA

Crawford always seemed a bit overrated, as although he did have some MLB blood in his veins via his being Carl Crawford's cousin, his minor league numbers were never overwhelming. He doesn't have near the speed of his cousin, and entering his age-25 season this year, Crawford was a career .222/.320/.367 hitter with 10 homers and eight stolen bases in 620 career PA. The scouting reports were always more glowing than the actual results, so we kept buying in, and now perhaps we're seeing some of that talent turn into production. Entering Tuesday's action, the Mariners' new leadoff man was batting .276/.391/.362 with three steals in 69 PA. He's yet to go deep, but after stealing just five bases in 93 games last year, the early speed is encouraging. He's also posted an elite 8:10 K:BB, and 15 to 20 homer power should eventually be there. I'm a bit more optimistic on him now.

Jorge Soler, OF/DH, KC

You can't convince me that putting Yasiel Puig on this team wouldn't be a massive upgrade, but anyway, this is about another Cuban. Soler entered 2019 with 38 career home runs in 307 games, proving to be a disappointment for the Cubs. So of course, he went to the Royals and hit 48 homers in 162 games, batting .265/.354/.569, including 33 doubles. Soler is proving early this year that this isn't a fluke, getting off to a .286/.370/.556 start, including five homers in 17 games. The swing and miss to his game is going to limit him to something in the range of a .270 BA, but he did walk 10.8 percent f the time last year, so the OBP should continue to be solid. He has logged six games in the outfield already this year, making it pretty likely he'll qualify there next year as well. If you're a Royals fan, you'd love to see a long-term extension, as he could be Nelson Cruz 2.0, but either way, the Royals do control him via arbitration for 2021 prior to Soler hitting free agency.

Zach Plesac, SP, CLE

Plesac made some unfortunate off-the-field news this week, making an unauthorized visit with friends, violating the league's COVID-19 safety protocols. He'll now be quarantined a minimum of 72 hours before being eligible to rejoin the team. This shouldn't affect his status as the No. 5 starter, as Plesac is off to a nice start with a 1.29 ERA in three starts (21 innings) with a 24:2 K:BB. Plesac's 6.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 last year were fairly mediocre, leading to a 4.93 FIP versus a 3.81 ERA. From a pitch mix perspective, it's interesting to see that Plesac is throwing his fastball less hard (0.9 mph down from 2019), but his slider is clocking in 1.2 mph higher. Perhaps that's served to make it more difficult for hitters to distinguish between the two. We'll see if he can continue to miss bats at this rate, but if the improved control continues, so should the bottom-line results.

Trevor Bauer, SP, CIN

Now 29, Bauer entered this season with six full seasons under his belt, but just one really good year (great actually – 2018). After pitching to a 4.48 ERA last year, 2018 was starting to look like the outlier. This year, so far so good. Through three starts and 19.1 innings, Bauer is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and elite 32:4 K:BB. He's also allowed just two home runs after allowing one per start (34) a year ago. Bauer reversed a three-year downward trend last year with his BB/9 rising to 3.5, but that mark is just 1.9 so far in 2020. His velocity is actually down over one full mph (93.3 mph avg FB), but his hard-hit rate has plummeted by nearly half at 21.9 percent. This is all great, but when you factor in that two of his starts have come against the Tigers, and it's obvious that a .167 BABIP is not sustainable, it's fair to maintain some caution with Bauer.

Kevin Gausman, SP, SF

Gausman's ERA is a so-so 4.05 in four starts, but he looked really good against a tough Dodgers team this weekend, allowing just one run on three hits with a 6:0 K:BB in 6.1 innings. He was hitting 97 and 98 mph at times. His 23:2 K:BB in 20 innings is impressive, and the 95.3 mph he's averaging on his fastball is his highest since his rookie season back in 2013. Like the guy below him on this list, Gausman disappointed with the Orioles, but he's still just 29, so there's time for a midcareer renaissance. Gausman has yet to really figure out how to string together multiple solid starts in a row. Gausman opened last year with a 2.75 ERA in his first three starts but then allowed 11 runs in 10.1 innings in his next two before eventually ending the year in the bullpen. Pitching for the Giants isn't going to help his W/L record (he's 0-1 in four starts), but if he can continue pounding the strike zone, perhaps he can avoid what happened last year. Of some note is that Gausman's 33.9 GB percentage is lower than we'd like to see and could come back to bite him. Gausman is doing everything he can to improve his trade value to contenders.

Dylan Bundy, SP, LAA

Three starts and three quality starts for Bundy so far, making him one of the few bright spots for a team with the worst record in the AL. Bundy sits at 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and impressive 25:2 K:BB in 21.2 innings. He's remained pretty healthy the past four seasons but has yet to fulfill the potential he showed years ago as one of baseball's better pitching prospects. So, how's he doing this? First is improved control. It's never been poor necessarily, as he entered the year with a 3.0 career BB/9. So far this year though, it's 0.83. Second is fastball location, at least from what I saw in his third start. Finally, Bundy is throwing his slider nearly 30 percent of the time versus 23 percent last year, and it's been a plus pitch for him. Pretty much any pitcher that averages 90.5 mph with his fastball as Bundy is this year is going to have some ups and downs, but getting out of Baltimore has really seemed to help.

Tyler Alexander, SP, DET

Alexander earned a spot in the rotation this past week after a pretty impressive relief appearance that saw him strike out nine Reds in a row and 10 total over 3.2 hitless innings. He did walk one and hit one, but overall, this year in 7.2 innings, Alexander has allowed just one run on four hits with a 13:1 K:BB. Alexander's numbers between Triple-A and the Tigers last year were mixed:

Triple-A / Detroit:

ERA: 5.13 / 4.86

K/9: 9.9 / 7.9

BB/9: 2.1 / 1.2

HR/9: 1.7 / 1.5

You can see where the problem arose. Alexander posted decent groundball rates in the minors prior to last year, but he's been prone to the fly ball the last couple years, so with his fastball sitting in the 90 to 91 range, that leaves little margin for error. That said, his control is excellent, and if he can continue to command his fastball and slider, the results could be there. The 26-year-old has never been considered a top prospect, though he was the No. 65 overall pick in the 2015 draft out of college. Casey Mize and Matt Manning are expected to command the front of the Detroit rotation starting as early as later this year, but Alexander's command/control profile could fit well in that No. 5 slot.