Todd's Takes: Wrapping Up Last Year's Moves

When we last met in this space, moves through mid-December had been covered. Since then, there have been over 10 trades and close to 125 free agent signings. Even I'm not crazy enough to cover them all (but our notes team is...and has).

Today, I'll pick out the more noteworthy transactions that occurred before we started typing 2023 in online documents. As was the case in the first two installments, the focus will be on a nugget or two in each deal not necessarily broached from a conventional angle, but they'll no doubt vary in pithiness. In full disclosure, some of the comments will incorporate other transactions that have transpired since the move in question. That is, today's blurb is different (and hopefully more relevant) than what would have been posted the time of the transaction.

Moves timestamped this year will soon follow. As always, I'm happy to embellish and/or address any players I've missed in the comments below.

TRADES

Pirates acquire Connor Joe

The trade felt weird when it occurred, and it's a bit more curious now. Joe can be more than a short-side platoon bat, but that seems to be the plan. The caveat is Pittsburgh already had Miguel Andujar, and they both fill the same role as Ji-Man Choi's dance partner. Carlos Santana and Choi with Joe/Andujar should occupy first base and designated hitter. The chance for Joe to dabble in the outfield lessened with Andrew McCutchen's recent signing. However, Joe's opportunity to chase flyballs increases if Bryan Reynolds is traded. I guess Joe is in play late in NL-only leagues, but PNC Park will dampen power, and the Bucs lineup remains... non-daunting.

Orioles acquire James McCann

This deal has more to do with Adley Rutschman than McCann. Rutschman stans will call for me to turn in my so-called expert card, but the sophomore backstop is going to lose more playing time than he would if Anthony Bemboom or Mark Kolozsvary were the backup. Sure, Rutschman will pick up plenty of playing time at designated hitter, but unless the Orioles carry two reserve receivers, Rutschman is not going to be an everyday player. Yes, Rutschman is going to play a ton, but McCann will likely cost him 25-35 plate appearances relative to a lesser understudy, and where he's being drafted, Rutschman needs every trip to the dish he can muster.

Diamondbacks acquire Diego Castillo

My first reaction was why would the Pirates deal Castillo? Upon closer inspection, Oneil Cruz is clearly entrenched at shortstop while Rodolfo Castro showed some promise down the stretch, so he deserves a spot at the keystone. Plus, Nick Gonzales is knocking at the door, so it makes sense to cut ties with Castillo. At different times, Castillo has flashed a hit tool, while at others he's displayed some pop. The Snakes are hoping they both manifest, though neither coming to fruition could be the likely outcome. With Nick Ahmed coming off shoulder surgery, and Geraldo Perdomo looking overmatched, Castillo could get some playing time at shortstop. He's well off the mixed-league radar but is someone to track.

Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho

On paper, Varsho benefits from a better hitter's park and a superior team context. The only downside from a fantasy perspective is there's now less of a chance Varsho retains catcher eligibility in keeper and dynasty formats. He may sneak in five or 10 games and garner in-season eligibility based on your rules in 2024, but with Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen as the main tandem behind the plate, Varsho's squatting will be limited, with 20 games unlikely. In fact, with Brandon Belt taking up designated hitter at bats, that leaves fewer for Kirk, and the best chance Varsho had to pick up time at catcher would be when Kirk was at DH and the Blue Jays want to pinch-hit for Jansen.

Diamondbacks acquire Lourdes Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno

Gurriel helps break up the lefty-heavy nature of Arizona's outfield and designated hitter options, though Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas all remain to swing from the left side. Even though it's a (mostly) indoor stadium and thus really should not change much over the years, Chase Field has become one of the hardest parks in terms of homers, which hurts Gurriel a bit. The lineup is also not as potent, though it's improving. Gurriel is what he's always been, a rather boring late outfielder, but now some of the surrounding team context isn't as alluring.

It's unclear how the playing time will flesh out between Carson Kelly and Moreno. Kelly hasn't materialized as hoped, but catchers' development is often delayed. Moreno profiles more as a "won't hurt you" type of catcher as opposed to some of young backstops debuting recently. Given half a season behind the plate, Moreno could threaten double-digit homers, but he's more likely to hit .280.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier

Doesn't it feel like this should be Kiermaier's third of fourth team? Eh, maybe it's just me. Reportedly, Kiermaier will be the everyday centerfielder for the Blue Jays (insert "when healthy" here). Kiermaier has only topped 150 games once, way back in 2015. Aside from the pandemic season, the 63 games he played last season are the fewest in his career. He's morphed into a batting average liability, though Rogers Centre could help in that regard. His only real fantasy asset is stolen bases since he profiles as someone who could benefit from the new rules. Even so, he's a luxury item, not someone to rely upon for swipes.

Dodgers sign Noah Syndergaard

After being restricted to fastballs and curves the previous season, Syndergaard reverted to his old pitch mix in 2022, but with far less velocity. The primary repercussion was a steep decline in his slider swinging-strike rate. Perhaps the Dodgers feel they can help him recapture his old mark, but it will be hard without the same velocity. The more likely plan is working with what he has to be more effective. The team context is excellent. Syndergaard is best suited for formats where streaming is facilitated, but he could emerge as more than a matchup guy.

Tigers sign Michael Lorenzen

The site outlook does a nice job of capturing Lorenzen, so there's no need to repeat. That said, maybe this is a me thing, but it just feels like Lorenzen has another level. Unfortunately, he has a few things working against him in that he's 31 years old, injury-prone and in a smaller version of Comerica Park which will be a bit more generous to the long ball. The format where he piques my interest is Draft and Hold. Detroit has a really tough schedule to open the season, so it's either taking up a reserve spot while monitoring how well Lorenzen is pitching or starting him in risky scenarios. Draft and Hold isn't ideal since you want healthy arms, but at least there's ample volume to be able to play the wait-and-see game early.

Orioles sign Adam Frazier

It's not like Frazier has been building a Hall-of-Fame resume, but he's only missed 23 games over the past four seasons, so chances are he received some measure of assurance he'll play. He needs the volume since he's achieved double-digit homers just twice in his career while gathering at least 10 steals twice, both over the past two campaigns. Second base is the likely destination, pushing Ramon Urias to a utility role. If for some reason Orioles manager Brandon Hyde loses a bet and hits Frazier first or second, he's borderline mixed-league worthy, which is more of an indictment of the back end of the outfield pool than Frazier's production.

Yankees sign Carlos Rodon

Formulaic projections systems love Rodon. Usually, there's some luck involved when a hurler dominates in the manner he's achieved the past couple of seasons. But not Rodon, whose numbers are well-supported. Furthermore, the park translations render his seasons with the White Sox a bit better. The icing on the cake is the perception that Yankee Stadium is a hitter's venue. Sure, it embellished homers, but it's similar to Oracle Park with respect to runs. Downgrading Rodon for health is defensible. With respect to skills, he's top-three in the league. 

Mets sign Omar Narvaez

With James McCann shipped to Baltimore, Narvaez is slated to be the left-handed half of a platoon with Tomas Nido. Narvaez has never been a good hitter, but he happened to pair a lucky season with the happy fun ball. However, Narvaez's defense is above-average, and the Mets hope to generate ample offense without much production from their backstops. As for fantasy, Narvaez could be a late option in deeper two-catcher leagues, with the note he could lose playing time later in the season if Francisco Alvarez is eased into action behind the dish.

Cubs sign Brad Boxberger

Pop quiz: Who led MLB in holds last season? Wrong, it was A.J. Minter. Boxberger came in second. He'll no doubt be in the late-inning mix for the Cubs and who knows, Boxberger could emerge as the closer. 

White Sox sign Andrew Benintendi

Much like Benintendi's career, this signing flew under the radar. Granted, he's not a perennial All-Star, but he's had his moments and will turn just 29 years old right before the break. The most intriguing element of Benintendi joining the White Sox is that Guaranteed Rate Field is the best venue for left-handed power. Last season, Benintendi's HR/FB cratered, but in 2021 his flyball average exit velocity was a tick above average and he lofts a goodly number of batted balls. Twenty homers aren't out of the question and Benintendi also seems like a guy with a chance to benefit from the new rules regarding stolen bases.

Twins sign Joey Gallo

Will the new rules shift your opinion on Gallo? See what I did there? Sigh, if you have to explain it...

One can argue no one has been shifted more than Gallo. What can't be measured is the mental drag. That is, how much, if any, has shifting affected Gallo's approach, not just his on-the-field outcomes. Given, he's always going to be a batting-average liability, but there's a point where his power and production could tip the scales into the black in standard rotisserie leagues and even better in OBP and points-scoring formats. This feels dirty, as I prefer giving advice as if I'm making a decision for my only team, but I'd like Gallo on a team or two, though not on any of my high-profile leagues. 

Athletics sign Trevor May

Sometimes I think we need a "Flip at the Deadline" jar. Any time we say it on SiriusXM or a RotoWire podcast, we put a buck into the jar, then have a party at the end of the season. Well, here's my crisp single, as May seems like an ideal candidate for the Athletics to install as closer, then flip at the deadline. They don't give out $7M contracts to setup men.

Cubs sign Dansby Swanson

Swanson has taken a bit of a hit this offseason, as he was framed as the worst of the Big-4 shortstops to sign free-agent contracts this offseason. Given, we all have varying views, but even factoring in the downgrade from the Braves to the Cubs, I have Swanson ranked higher than Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa. The reason is Swanson's steals, and he should continue to run with his new club, maybe even more. That said, Swanson has missed only two games since 2020. He's garnered the fifth most plate appearances in that span, in part due to hitting high up in a lineup that turns over a lot. Not only will it be a challenge maintaining the playing time, but the Cubs lineup will not avail Swanson of as many plate appearances.

Pirates sign Austin Hedges

Here is how I started Hedges' site outlook: How good is Austin Hedges' glove? Over the past four seasons, he's posted a .171/.238/.289 line, yet he's appeared in 60 percent of his team's games over that span. 

Here us how I ended it: The only reason to have Hedges on your team is if you lose a bet or play in a simulation format where defense counts a ton.

'Nuff said.

Dodgers sign J.D. Martinez

Perhaps this is more narrative than usual, but I like this destination for Martinez. He's not playing to pad his Hall of Fame resume, and he's not playing for money. Martinez is playing for another ring. He can't be happy how he's performed over his last three seasons in Boston. Martinez has thrived in pennant chases before, so this is an ideal spot for another run. I can't move on without offering one numbery tidbit: Dodger Stadium is better for right-handed power than Fenway Park.

Red Sox sign Justin Turner

Much like Martinez to the Dodgers was a great fit, so is Turner to Boston. This may seem like a contradiction, since it was just mentioned Fenway Park suppresses right-handed power, but park factors don't affect everyone the same. One reason Fenway Park hinders righty power is that it's hard for a right-handed bat to go deep the other way, and opposite-field power is Martinez's forte. Turner is more of a pull hitter, and he hits more fly balls than the guy he replaces. If this was a trade, the evaluation would be win-win.

Braves sign Jordan Luplow

Hmm, I didn't realize how poorly Luplow has played against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. I'm not sure I'd trust him in NL-only. Actually, I am sure... and I don't.

Padres sign Seth Lugo

Lugo wants to start and there are holes in the back end of the Padres rotation. Nick Martinez and Lugo have a leg up on the spots, but Adrian Morejon, Pedro Avila and Brent Honeywell are also in the mix. Lugo hasn't thrown more than 80 innings since 2019, but his five-pitch mix should help him revert to starting. Lugo seems like a churn and burn type guy. He's not worthy of being stashed until his next favorable matchup; he's more of a "check to see if he's available" streamer.

Angles sign Brandon Drury

This is a better signing for the Angels than it is for fantasy. Yeah, I went cliché, but there's not much to say. You know Drury was out over his skis last season. You know, or at least should know, the power is real, but Drury tends to get exposed when he's playing regularly. Last season, this was masked by the trade to San Diego, but the slide had already begun. Sure, Drury is eligible at multiple positions, but that just means he'll be disappointing at multiple positions. Sure, AL-only, why not, but he has no mixed-league charm.

Padres sign Matt Carpenter

This signing was a lot more intriguing before Nelson Cruz signed, but Cruz only signed for $1M, so it wouldn't be surprising if the two veterans end up in a designated hitter platoon. Unfortunately, Carpenter is DH-only, at least in conventional leagues, so the allure of taking a chance is lessened. Still, the cost to acquire Carpenter has probably dropped with Cruz in the mix, and Carpenter may still end up getting 70 percent of the playing time.

Royals sign Jordan Lyles

When the Royals signed Lyles, I checked my grids to see which pitching prospect I needed to dock starts. Don't laugh; it wasn't that long ago Kansas City was deep with promising hurlers. Unfortunately, no one, at least not yet, has materialized. Lyles was almost useful at home last season. Actually, his home ERA was good, but his strikeouts were much better on the road, he just surrendered most of his homers away from Camden Yards. Lyles is a 42nd round Draft and Hold guy, in play when the Royals play Detroit and a couple of other teams. It's too bad he can't face his own offense.

Red Sox sign Niko Goodrum

There's a non-zero chance Goodrum is Boston's opening day shortstop. Let that sink in for a minute. I'll wait.

Did you throw up in your mouth a little bit? I did.

If you're a Red Sox fan and looking for something to hang your Boston cap on, Goodrum slashed .311/.500/.511 over 62 plate appearances for Triple-A Sugar Land last season. 

Sorry, that's all I have.

Reds sign Wil Myers

Here's another one I like, as the match is perfect for the player and team. The Great American Ballpark is one of the best venues for a hitter to rejuvenate his career. Sure, durability is an issue, but Myers is only two seasons removed from posting a .959 OPS during the pandemic season. His exit velocity was down last season and he fanned at a career-high clip. For a few years, he was carrying an elite exit velocity on flyballs, driving power. It's clearly not a sure thing he's able to recapture it, but a change in scenery could be just what he needs (argh, another cliché). Outfield is thinner than usual, so there aren't as many safe, boring dudes to draft as a hedge, but Myers also qualifies at first base, so baking in an escape route should be straightforward.

Giants sign Michael Conforto

From a fantasy baseball perspective, this is one of the worst landing spots for Conforto. He's already a huge question mark, coming off somewhat surprising shoulder surgery that cost him all of 2022. Because of the timing, and the fact he was a free agent, there isn't even minor-league rehab to gauge health and effectiveness. All we have is trusting  that the Giants thoroughly perused his medicals (insert Carlos Correa joke here). Personally, between the year off and the power-crushing home park, I'll let Conforto be someone else's flyer.

Giants sign Taylor Rogers

The Rogers brothers are in the same neighborhood. Hey, I'm almost 3,000 words into this beast, cut me a break. Taylor should take over the primary setup role with Camilo Doval the closer. That said, the Giants are on the hook for $33M over three years, so if Doval stumbles, the left-handed twin has closer experience and could step in. Wait, they're twins. How come one is a righty and the other a southpaw?

Phillies sign Craig Kimbrel

Since the Kimbrel signing, the Phillies traded for Gregory Soto, adding to a bullpen that already featured Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado. I joked on Twitter how Philadelphia must feel there is a market inefficiency on relievers with control issues. It was pointed out that friend and colleague Eno Sarris from The Athletic surmised this is actually the case, since pure stuff can't be taught, while a coaching staff can work on better control. It's a left-handed compliment, but Alvarado posted the lowest walk rate of his career last season, a still-high 11.2 percent. I suppose it makes sense, but not enough to tip the fantasy needle towards trusting Kimbrel.

Rangers sign Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi's site outlook details what transpired last season, highlighting both performance and health risk. Texas isn't concerned, as they signed him to a two-year deal for $34M. Well, they also signed Jacob deGrom, so maybe they're rolling the dice on health. If he's right, Eovaldi is a guy you leave in your lineup for just about every game. When he was with Boston, he usually handled the Yankees, so he was pretty much active every week. With Eovaldi, it depends on the cost. Personally, I want to leave my first three starting pitchers in the lineup every week. In a 15-team mixed league, that means Eovaldi as at best, an SP4 for me. Currently, he's around the 67th starter off the board, which puts him in play as an SP5.

Pirates sign Rich Hill

I've been writing player outlooks and profiles for almost 20 years, and I am certain this offseason was the first time I weaved snot into one.

Much like Eddie Harris in Major League, Hill threw every piece of junk he could think of at 'em, save the snot.

PNC Park is a great place to pitch, but Hill is at best a waiver wire pickup for favorable home affairs.

Marlins sign Jean Segura

Miami is an odd landing point for Segura since they're rich in middle infielders, including Jazz Chisholm, who, like Segura, is best suited for the keystone. Since the signing, the Marlins have dealt Miguel Rojas, their starting shortstop, to the Dodgers. This leaves Joey Wendle (also rumored to be on the block) as a possibility as well as Chisholm, as Segura is slated to play the hot corner. Having middle and corner eligibility is intriguing, but the park and team context is finally enough to drop my irrational affinity for Segura as a fantasy factor.

Red Sox sign Corey Kluber

Kluber's tour of the AL East continues, this time sending him to Boston, where he has some family ties. He's going late enough to add to a Draft and Hold staff, but as a Red Sox fan, I sure wish he was ticketed to start the fifth game of the season and not the second.

Diamondbacks sign Evan Longoria

Ideally, Longoria serves on the short side of a third base or designated hitter platoon, so Josh Rojas can either stay at the hot corner full time or move to another spot when Longoria is at third base. Rojas handles southpaws well enough to keep his bat in the lineup full time, and he's a sneaky source of stolen bases from a position not normally associated with bags, though Rojas is also eligible at second base. Yeah, I know, this is supposed to be about Longoria, but how it affects Rojas is more important.

That takes us up to the new year. I'll thumbnail the ensuing transactions soon.